I mean, really. No one knows nothing about what will happen tonight. It’s kinda… cool. Though I do feel bad for the pollster.
What happened:
Politico:
The most consequential poll in politics is about to be released
But pollsters are trying to downplay expectations for the final pre-caucus Iowa survey from the Des Moines Register.
And then moments before going live on CNN, with a hoopla hour-long “get to the point, already” presentation:
Ariel Edwards-Levy/HuffPost:
Highly Anticipated Iowa Caucuses Poll Shelved Over Possible Errors
At least one Iowan interviewed reportedly wasn’t read the full list of candidates.
“One operator had apparently enlarged the font size on their computer screen, perhaps cutting off Mr. Buttigieg’s name from the list of options,” the Times reported, noting that because the list of candidates is randomized between interviews, Buttigieg may not have been the sole candidate affected. The pollsters weren’t immediately able to determine the extent of the problem before the poll’s planned ― and much hyped ― release on Saturday night.
Big oops.
My prediction? Elation, tears and some big time pundit embarrassment. But I’m more interested in how they won, not “how they could win, if they only listened to me.” And for that, wait until tonight.
The politics of sports:
CBS:
CBS News Battleground Tracker: What could happen in Iowa on Monday?
Our final CBS News Iowa Battleground Tracker offers a statistical simulation of the caucuses and some scenarios that might unfold on Monday. It looks like a close contest heading in, and the top candidates are all poised to win national delegates.
To show what could happen — and more importantly, why — we continued interviewing likely caucus-goers this week for their first- and second-choice preferences in our polling, then combined it with data on Iowa voters generally, and how the caucus system works across the state's counties and districts.
That was an… interesting poll but not necessarily good for the leaders. Why? Iowa is an expectations game. What you have to do is do better than folks thought you would. And/but then there’s SOTU Tuesday and impeachment verdict Wednesday and New Hampshire in a week (February 11), so make the most of your week and try for a back-to-back.
The politics of politics:
A reminder: Democrats are winning the argument. People don’t remember or even know details and don’t vote on policy. But remember who’s a crook:
Great story about how Rs always think Ds are them but mirror image (and it turns out not so): “So you want Confederate statues removed? Remove the Harry Byrd statue!!!”
An intriguing newsletter from data journalist G Elliot Morris:
American democracy is screwed
Our best hope is a (very unlikely) mass mobilization of voters that favor multiparty democracy
American democracy is on thin ice. A survey of experts in October of 2019 found that they rated American democracy at about a 70 out of 100, showing broad discomfort with a number of factors they define as essential to modern democracy. Only 41% of them believed that all adult citizens have equal opportunity to vote, for example, and only 26% thought that the government today was effectively limiting the president’s power to its proper Constitutional bounds.
Point is, in a polarized environment, what can we do about it? That’s why state houses and the courts all matter (I love you, VA). Don’t just concentrate on the WH.
Sahil Kapur/NBC:
Party of FDR or Obama: How the 2020 primary will define Democrats
As Iowa kicks off the presidential voting season, Democratic voters will take on the existential question of whether they're a party of center-left pragmatism or bold populism.
On one side is an older and moderate cohort drawn to pitches by Biden — and to an extent, Pete Buttigieg — of finding common ground and unifying the country. Challenging them is a younger and re-energized left that wants a more aggressive nominee like Sanders or Elizabeth Warren who will seek to bust corporate power, expand the safety net and finish the project FDR began.
“Senator Sanders is the fulfillment of the FDR legacy,” said Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., one of his prominent endorsers. “I believe we are at a moment in history where, post-Trump, we could see the dawn of a new progressive era. If you believe that moment hasn’t come and we just need to defeat Trump and return to normalcy, then Vice President Biden is offering that choice.”
TIME:
Americans Trapped in Wuhan Aren’t Angry at the Chinese Government. They’re Angry at Their Own
Still, priority on Wednesday’s flight was given to staff at the local U.S. consulate and their families. The few remaining seats were available at inflated costs of $1,000, say Americans living in Wuhan, prompting anger among those who felt abandoned by their government.
“For the average person, that plane ticket really wasn’t available,” says George Goodwin, a biology teacher from Reno, Nev., who worked for the U.S. Center for Disease Control before moving to China. “Many people were very frustrated as the announcement [of the flight] made it seem this is going to be the savior of all Americans in Wuhan. Except it really isn’t because most of us can’t go.”
For Steece, the situation is complicated by the fact that his wife is a Chinese national and son, Colm, is less than one month old, and so still hasn’t been registered as a U.S. citizen. Chinese spouses and other family members of Americans were not eligible for Wednesday’s flight.
“I’ve actually been a little bit annoyed at the p–s-poor treatment,” says Steece, who before moving to China served five years with the U.S. National Guard. “Why is it that American citizens have to pay $1,000 and not have our families come with us? It’s bulls–t.”
A reminder that Wuhan (11 million people) is bigger than NYC.
Hoping we don’t see a lot of this:
Here’s a paywalled piece from AJPH that deals with it, the concern is real and shared by public health folks:
“Spanish Flu”: When Infectious Disease Names Blur Origins and Stigmatize Those Infected
CONCLUSIONS
Xenophobic reactions to disease are not limited to outbreaks specifically named after a foreign country or stigmatized group.
The history of infectious disease control is rife with examples of heavy-handed responses to epidemics that are assigned perfectly neutral names but that nonetheless inspired intrusive measures against foreigners. For example, authorities quarantined San Francisco’s Chinatown while explicitly exempting non-Asian businesses during a plague outbreak in 1900; in the wake of cholera and typhus outbreaks in 1892, New York City officials selectively quarantined Jewish immigrants, whereas Italians arriving on the same boat were detained for only a brief time
Although stigmatizing names can exacerbate public anxiety, they are but one example of the deeply entrenched xenophobia in public health history.
Great dataviz graphic:
And another story via BuzzFeed:
“HELP!!!” Internal #SharpieGate Emails Show Government Officials Freaked Out Over Trump’s “Doctored” Hurricane Map
President Trump’s fake hurricane map triggered panic, outrage, and an internal revolt among top officials at the National Weather Service and NOAA. That’s according to a trove of more than 1,000 emails released Friday night to BuzzFeed News and other publications in response to a Freedom of Information Act request.
Trump (falsely) tweeted on September 1 that several southern states, including Alabama, were “most likely to be hit” by the hurricane after its deadly pass through the Bahamas. Three days later, Trump shared a fake map in which a storm track, seemingly drawn with a black Sharpie, showed Dorian moving toward Alabama. When a National Weather Service forecaster tried to set the record straight, its parent agency, NOAA, released an unsigned statement disavowing the correction — seemingly to appease the White House.