A friend of mine in Hong Kong brought these articles to my attention this morning. They contain perhaps vital new information about the rate and method of spread of the coronavirus.
First, as some of you may know, I lived 27 years in Hong Kong, including during the 2003 SARS outbreak. I wrote one of the first public articles questioning the Hong Kong government on what was happening on mainland China in terms of what appeared to be a mass effort at disinfection. This was in mid-February 2003, when suddenly white vinegar and Chlorox could not be found on Hong Kong shelves—apparently bought en masse by locals and mainlanders or diverted by cross-border traders who could suddenly get a high margin on these disinfection products. That administration then, like our administration now, ignored my article and a spate of subsequent articles by others asking our local administration to query the mainland authorities on what was going on. Later, well into March, less than a mile from the campus I worked on, a mainlander staying at a hotel went into a health crisis with a mysterious disease that later sickened and killed several healthcare providers as well as the original patient. I later went on to write an academic article about how the way the local and mainland administrators handled the outbreak led to a number of leaders in Hong Kong and on the mainland to lose their careers, and also led to the mass discontent that erupted in 2003 that laid the basis for deep, and continuing, mass distrust of mainland and local administrators among Hong Kong people.
This note is to let you know that I am neither an alarmist nor is the current coronavirus epidemic my first encounter with both novel disease outbreaks or maladministration, misinformation, and cover-ups.
The first information is from the Atlantic. Published yesterday (9 March), Iran's coronavirus problem is a lot worse than it seems makes a number of calculations as to how many in Iran may actually have the virus. The administration there not only failed and then covered up information about the outbreak, it appears to have been partially decapitated by the disease.
As of yesterday (8 March), according to Johns Hopkins University’s Coronavirus Resource Center, Iran has reported 6,566 COVID-19 cases, or about one in every 12,000 people in its population. The first case appeared on February 19. Right now Iran is third behind China (80,695) and South Korea (7,314), and just ahead of Italy (5,883). But the official Iranian number is almost certainly an undercount, probably due to the Iranian government’s attempt to hide a desperate situation for which it is partially responsible. When the final history of the coronavirus epidemic of 2020 is written, it may go something like this: The disease started in China, but it became finally and irrevocably uncontained in Iran. Knowing that the Iranian number is much higher than currently disclosed tells the rest of the world that the epidemic is even further along than official statistics indicate.
A variety of ways of statistically estimating the actual numbers diseased in Iran showed anywhere from over half a million (500,000+) cases up to 2 million cases, as of 8 March when the article was written. This makes the current numbers on the Johns-Hopkins website Coronavirus Current Count website (over 116,000 globally as of this writing around 8 am Pacific Coast time) a serious undercount of the disease globally. The calculations in this article reveal the potential explosive number of infections possible WHEN AN ADMINISTRATION FAILS AND LIES about this disease. Since we are in such a situation ourselves in the United States, it is incumbent on us, ourselves to take precautions the current administration is unwilling or unable to take.
This leads to the information in the second article sent by my friend. This is from the South China Morning Post. The SCMP science writer in Beijing wrote about an academic study published, then for some unknown reason, retracted by the Chinese Central Government, indicating Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’ and stay in air for 30 minutes, Chinese study finds
I strongly suspect the Chinese government forced the retraction because it is determined to reopen factories and restart public transport, and the information in the study might compromise those steps. One of the key findings in the study is that the virus can linger in the air, picked up by others breathing in the particles IF THEY DO NOT WEAR FACEMASKS. It also showed the virus can survive on surfaces for hours even in 98 degree F temperatures. So odds are, this disease will not simply disappear with the summer like Trump fancies it will. Further, it shows wearing a facemask may be as useful as frequent washing of hands. This is especially the case in public transport.
Please also note from the article, the Chinese government is able to do contact tracing from its incredibly penetrative surveillance network, which includes cameras on all public transport. The US does not have such a network, and therefore contact tracing will not be as efficient here. That means, an incident like that covered in this article would be unlikely to be noted or followed up by US authorities. While I don’t want to panic everyone into trying to find facemasks, this article shows that the very widespread use of facemasks in China may be one of the key ways in which the Chinese administration has been able to reduce the spread and the speed of spread, of the disease.
Please do you own reading and draw your own conclusions. Those of you in public spaces and using public transport, especially take note and take care. Do not be embarrassed to wear a mask even if others are not. I suspect mask wearing will soon be as common in the US as it is in China and S. Korea now.
Again, I do not wish to panic or alarm anyone. Please read the linked sources carefully. These sources are usually reliable and this information may be lifesaving. Having lived through SARS already and now this disease, which has spread most where I now live (between Vancouver Canada and Seattle Washington), I know I personally would appreciate this information. I value all my friends on Kos, and as some say, dog knows we need every Democratic vote in November. I hope this info helps you stay around to vote with me to end the Republican menace to our lives.
I am going to excerpt from a comment by docmidwest of medical advice regarding wearing masks from one of the earliest researchers on corona viruses. The mask is more to help you keep from touching your mouth and nose. There is also a linked scientific paper provided by Wolf10 below (can’t copy his link, unfortunately) which also indicates that wearing a mask before feeling ill might be advisable since several in that study were infectious but did not feel ill. A mask helps cut down the spread of sputum if you cough. A mask does not protect you from others so much as protect you from yourself, and protect you from possibly infecting others before you know you are infectious.
GOOD ADVICE REGARDING CORONAVIRUS from James Robb February 26, 2020
“As some of you may recall, when I was a professor of pathology at the University of California San Diego, I was one of the first molecular virologists in the world to work on coronaviruses (the 1970s). I was the first to demonstrate the number of genes the virus contained. Since then, I have kept up with the coronavirus field and its multiple clinical transfers into the human population (e.g., SARS, MERS), from different animal sources.
The current projections for its expansion in the US are only probable, due to continued insufficient worldwide data, but it is most likely to be widespread in the US by mid to late March and April.
Here is what I have done and the precautions that I take and will take.
These are the same precautions I currently use during our influenza seasons, except for the mask and gloves.:
1) NO HANDSHAKING! Use a fist bump, slight bow, elbow bump, etc.
2) Use ONLY your knuckle to touch light switches. elevator buttons, etc.. Lift the gasoline dispenser with a paper towel or use a disposable glove.
3) Open doors with your closed fist or hip - do not grasp the handle with your hand, unless there is no other way to open the door. Especially important on bathroom and post office/commercial doors.
4) Use disinfectant wipes at the stores when they are available, including wiping the handle and child seat in grocery carts.
5) Wash your hands with soap for 10-20 seconds and/or use a greater than 60% alcohol-based hand sanitizer whenever you return home from ANY activity that involves locations where other people have been.
6) Keep a bottle of sanitizer available at each of your home's entrances. AND in your car for use after getting gas or touching other contaminated objects when you can't immediately wash your hands.
7) If possible, cough or sneeze into a disposable tissue and discard. Use your elbow only if you have to. The clothing on your elbow will contain infectious virus that can be passed on for up to a week or more!
What I have stocked in preparation for the pandemic spread to the US:
1) Latex or nitrile latex disposable gloves for use when going shopping, using the gasoline pump, and all other outside activity when you come in contact with contaminated areas.
Note: This virus is spread in large droplets by coughing and sneezing. This means that the air will not infect you! BUT all the surfaces where these droplets land are infectious for about a week on average - everything that is associated with infected people will be contaminated and potentially infectious. The virus is on surfaces and you will not be infected unless your unprotected face is directly coughed or sneezed upon.
This virus only has cell receptors for lung cells (it only infects your lungs) The only way for the virus to infect you is through your nose or mouth via your hands or an infected cough or sneeze onto or into your nose or mouth.
2) Stock up now with disposable surgical masks and use them to prevent you from touching your nose and/or mouth (We touch our nose/mouth 90X/day without knowing it!). This is the only way this virus can infect you - it is lung-specific. The mask will not prevent the virus in a direct sneeze from getting into your nose or mouth - it is only to keep you from touching your nose or mouth.
3) Stock up now with hand sanitizers and latex/nitrile gloves (get the appropriate sizes for your family). The hand sanitizers must be alcohol-based and greater than 60% alcohol to be effective.
4) Stock up now with zinc lozenges. These lozenges have been proven to be effective in blocking coronavirus (and most other viruses) from multiplying in your throat and nasopharynx. Use as directed several times each day when you begin to feel ANY "cold-like" symptoms beginning. It is best to lie down and let the lozenge dissolve in the back of your throat and nasopharynx. Cold-Eeze lozenges is one brand available, but there are other brands available.
I, as many others do, hope that this pandemic will be reasonably contained, BUT I personally do not think it will be. Humans have never seen this (edited: animal)-associated virus before and have no internal defense against it.
Tremendous worldwide efforts are being made to understand the molecular and clinical virology of this virus. Unbelievable molecular knowledge about the genomics, structure, and virulence of this virus has already been achieved. BUT, there will be NO drugs or vaccines available this year to protect us or limit the infection within us. Only symptomatic support is available.
I hope these personal thoughts will be helpful during this potentially catastrophic pandemic. You are welcome to share.
Good luck to all of us!
James Robb, MD FCAP”