The coronavirus is changing everything, at a time when big changes were already in the works. The imminent threat of climate disruption and change, the rapid decline of the American working class in terms of their economic security and health, and the rise of this cruel new strain of nihilistic Trumpism were already shaking our country to its core. Now comes this intense new pandemic, with its total disruption of societal norms and patterns in the short run, and a real possibility of a wake of destruction and death in the long run.
Living in a time of fear usually doesn't help the progressive cause. People are easily manipulated by right wing scare tactics in such times, and when folks are hunkered down and scared, they look for safety and stability, not change. However, this is a unique time in American history. The conservative party is led by an unstable nutcase who is the opposite of safe and reliable, while the center-left party seems like they are about to nominate an affable, well-known, well-liked man. But in this strange, unpredictable moment, there is so much we don't know.
Last night's debate was pretty strong for both candidates. I prefer Bernie's more progressive message, but the bottom line is that both candidates made their case fairly well, and the debate is unlikely to change anything. Which means that Joe Biden is very likely to be our party's nominee.
One thing that is clear to me: for Biden to maximize his chances of beating Trump and , just as importantly, governing successfully in these turbulent times, he has to do the thing that he has been promising to do throughout his campaign, something that Democrats desperately want: to truly unite the party. The combination of Trump and coronavirus is so profoundly jarring that it will make some in the party and the punditry forget how badly divided our party is right now. The divisions between younger and older Democrats, between insiders and outsiders, between progressives and moderates are enormous. Add in the angst of the women who saw Hillary fall to the most sexist, misogynist man ever to be president and who watched smart, talented women like Warren, Klobuchar, and Kamala fall by the wayside. And add the angst of all those young people of color activists watching smart, talented people of color candidates forced off the debate stage so early in the primary fight.
Don't forget as well that the reason the Biden campaign was on death's door up until his miraculous Lazarus-like rise from the dead was that while people in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada liked him, there was little enthusiasm for him among most activists. He had trouble generating doorknockers, phone bankers, online contributors, and social media supporters to make his message go viral. He's going to need that kind of passion in the general election.
Yes, Trump is the great unifier for our side, and few people actively dislike Biden. But even after the bitter primary fight in 2016, the Clinton campaign papered over the divisions in the party, picking a safe, moderate white guy like Tim Kaine as the VP, and not campaigning on the economic issues that would have fired up the Bernie voters. The fact that this primary contest seems like it won't end up as tough as the last one doesn't mean those divisions don't still need to be overcome. As one of the people in the party in the 2016 general election working desperately to heal the rift and get Bernie voters and young African-Americans and Latinos/Latinas to come out strongly for us, I remember how hard it was when the Clinton team assumed we had no problem. We paid the price: the youth vote was down; the African-American vote was down; Jill Stein from the Green Party did much better in 2016 than she had done in 2012 or 2008; and we lost two critical states, Michigan and Wisconsin, where Bernie's populist economic message had carried the day in the primary.
In the face of the potential for the coronavirus disrupting normal GOTV activities like doorknocking, phone banking, and rallies, we are going to need every bit of enthusiasm we can generate, especially from the online world. Relational friend to friend organizing, organic social media, setting up calling and texting programs from home, and other stay-at-home online strategies need an army of impassioned volunteers to carry them out, so the party needs to be excited about Biden.
Not just getting elected but governing as well
Let me add one other thing that most political commentators are ignoring right now: the importance of bringing our fractious party together for the purposes of governing. Trumpism will not die even if we defeat Trump, even if we beat him soundly in 2020. There's a reason that he won in 2016 and has engendered such a loyal following. The Republicans have become a far right political party, determined to hold power by any means necessary. They have shown themselves willing to engage in blatant voter suppression and they have joined Trump in over-riding the rule of the law and ignoring the constitution. McConnell proved he would resort to any tactic and violate every norm and tradition to keep power.
What this means is that the Democrats have to show they can govern, and actually get tangible things for the working class Americans increasingly alienated from their government. We have to prove we can make a noticeable difference in real people's lives. The reason we lost so badly in 2010 was that people knew we had passed health care reform but didn't yet know its tangible benefits, only that it was being demonized like crazy by the Republicans. And they knew that Wall Street big wigs had not gone to jail after wrecking the economy, and had even gotten to keep their huge bonuses, but they didn't see any economic benefits coming to them. Young people of color hadn't seen immigration reform or criminal justice reform even brought to a vote. Young people in general had seen us fail badly at passing a climate change bill. People cynical about corruption in Washington hadn't seen any changes in terms of money in politics or cleaning up the revolving door and the lobbying industry.
If Joe Biden becomes president, he too will start his term in the middle of a deep recession, with the stink of corruption everywhere. If we are lucky enough to win the presidency and the Senate along with the House, it will be on us to move quickly to rebuild the economy and clean up the pig sty, not to mention do the enormous things required to deal with climate change before it is too late. And to do all that, we will need a united party. That doesn't mean everyone will agree on every agenda item on the first day out, but it does mean the Biden administration will need to have the goodwill and constructive cooperation of every segment of this currently fragmented party.
Biden needs to run a campaign that incorporates the language and agenda of the progressive wing of the party, and he needs an administration that incorporates the leaders of that progressive wing as well. I am delighted to see that he is already moving in that direction, embracing Elizabeth Warren's bankruptcy reform proposal and part of Bernie and Elizabeth's ideas on student debt. The great advantage Biden has in this election is that he can embrace plenty of progressive ideas and ideals without ever being credibly labeled as too much of a lefty. It's that old Nixon-goes-to-China idea: no one is more established in voters' minds as a solid centrist as Joe Biden. In his persona, in his political DNA, in his brand and identity, people know Joe Biden is a moderate insider. And that gives him the running room he needs to fully welcome the progressive wing of the party into his political message, his agenda, and his governing coalition.
The first big choice: the Vice-Presidential pick
It is hard to underscore just how huge the disappointment to the progressive wing of the party Tim Kaine was in 2016. It wasn't because Kaine was a bad guy with that awful a track record: like Biden, he was generally well-liked by all the insiders, and had some solid progressive votes in his history. But after that bitter primary, it was described by one Bernie person after another to me as the ultimate slap in the face. Kaine was everything the progressive wing didn't want: a moderate who worked well with corporate America, a long time insider without an ounce of populism in his track record, a white guy who didn't inspire anyone. Every frustrating conversation with progressives I had the rest of the campaign, and in the recriminations after, had the Kaine pick as the ultimate symbol of Hillary's disdain for their wing of the party. That wasn't necessarily fair to Kaine, who is a very decent guy and might well have been more progressive than my progressive friends think, but the symbolism of the VP matters enormously when your party is deeply divided.
The model Democrats should be using instead is from the Wisconsin and Michigan gubernatorial races of 2018, where the centrist Governor candidates picked strong progressives Mandela Barnes and Garlin Gilchrist respectively. These candidates were closely connected to the progressive communities in their states and helped turbo-charge turnout for young people and people of color, while giving the broader progressive community in their states a big stake in both the election and in governing afterward.
There are five incredibly important parts of the equation for picking the ideal VP nominee.
The first, thankfully, is already decided on with Biden's pledge to pick a woman candidate. The last thing we needed is a ticket of two white guys. I have had so many conversations, have seen so much social media and list serve commentary, expressing the sadness from activists that, after this incredible diversity of candidates running, the last two candidates standing are white men. That commentary comes in part, by the way, from supporters of both Bernie and Biden, as well as those who supported the candidates who have dropped out of the race. I think Biden picking a woman will go a long way toward reassuring all those people who have dreamed of a diverse ticket that the Biden campaign understood the symbolic importance of that kind of pick. Congrats to Biden for making this exciting choice.
The second thing the campaign should not underestimate is the critical importance of uniting the party with a strong progressive. I made the case for unifying the party in this way above, so will not repeat all those arguments, but I just want to emphasize again how big a deal it will be. If the Biden campaign wants unity, if they want enthusiasm, if they want to energize and engage the youth vote and online activists and donors, picking someone the progressive movement will love is urgently important. And when they win, who would you rather have be the main negotiator and bridge builder with Bernie and other progressives in the Senate, with AOC and the CPC in the House, than a VP they know, trust, and love.
The third thing Biden needs is someone who is tough as nails, someone who can make the case against Trump and all his cronies. That isn't something Joe Biden is good at: one of the big reasons he has emerged, to everyone's surprise, at the end of this campaign as the likely nominee is that his strength is to be reassuring and decent in these troubled times. People are fond of him and comfortable with him. But he is not always very good at the kind of nasty back and forth attack campaign we are heading into, and he will need a VP nominee who can take the other side apart.
Fourth, he needs a VP pick who is good at creating a narrative, telling a story about who the good guys and bad guys are, how America got off track, and how the Democrats have clear ideas about how to fix things. She needs to help re-create the old Democratic identity as the party of the people, telling the story of how it is the Democrats who are going to fight for the people as opposed to Trump who is mainly fighting for himself and his wealthy friends. She needs to be able to weave together the rich tapestry of diversity in our nation, and tell people how it is a good thing and not a bad thing the way the right wing story tellers are trying to say.
Finally, given Biden's age, it is extremely important that he pick someone that people believe would be a solid, competent, capable president. He needs someone with enough experience to get things done, someone who has the policy down and understands the executive powers of the White House and executive branch agencies.
A lot of people are talking about Kamala, and it would be great to have a black woman and someone who could prosecute the case against Trump. But she proved a weak story teller on the campaign, never settling on a basic narrative for her candidacy; the progressive wing of the party would be disappointed by the pick; and her experience level is relatively low- she's still in her first term as Senator.
Amy Klobuchar would do a good job prosecuting the case against Trump as well, and it would be great to have a Midwesterner on the ticket, but if you want to bring the progressive wing of the party to the table, she doesn't make any sense.
One strong choice would be Stacey Abrams. In terms of the fifth criteria above, I worry a little bit about her experience: I'm not sure about the reassurance factor with her. But in every other category, I think Abrams would be a stirring choice. She is a superb speaker, with a proven record at maximizing turnout and engagement among young people, people of color, and progressives.
Another great choice that few people are talking about since she didn’t run for president is Senator Tammy Baldwin. She comes from what many people are calling the closest tipping point swing state in the country, Wisconsin. She served in the US House for many years and is in her second term in the Senate. She is a good debater and tough campaigner, having won her Senate races in spite of huge spending from right wing groups against her in both her races. And she is a strong progressive populist who would excite the progressive community.
In terms of all these criteria, my view is that the strongest choice would be Elizabeth Warren. Personally, I would rather have Elizabeth as Treasury Secretary or as Federal Reserve Chair, where she could force the reform of Wall Street in a hurry. I think with her proven insider skills in terms of appointments and legislation, she could continue to play an important in the Senate in helping get strong progressive policies passed, and that she could play an outstanding role in pushing the Biden administration in a more progressive direction and holding them accountable if they started appointing people like Larry Summers and Tim Geithner to key economic roles. But if I'm looking at what the best ticket is for winning the election and then governing, it would be Elizabeth.
No one but Bernie could excite or engage or engage all the Bernie folks, but Elizabeth would do more to bring them in than anyone else. Her takedown of Bloomberg shows that no one could do a better job in terms of attacking the Trump administration. She is a great story teller, wonderful at explaining complex issues in ways that regular folks get. And with her combination of experience and accomplishment at the federal level- TARP oversight, getting the CFPB passed into law against all odds, setting up the CFPB agency and getting it off to a strong start, and her work in the Senate, rising to a leadership position in just her third year- no one will doubt her ability to take the helm if needed.
Unity in a Time of Division and Chaos
Joe Biden has the potential to be a strong candidate and president for these fearful times. His essential decency can comfort the nation. But it is exactly because he has those characteristics that he needs to run a general election campaign that unifies and excites the Democratic Party. In his language and message, in the issues he runs on, he needs to get the progressives and populists in our party fired up. The young, progressive, outsiders who have animated both the Bernie campaign and the progressive populist movement of the post-2008 crash years need to be brought inside the tent. Yes, as the old saying goes, so they will be pissing outside the tent rather than into it. But also because their ideas and energy are such a positive force if they are incorporated into what the party is doing.
The good news is that populist language and issues in general have proven popular with swing voters and Democratic base voters as well, as pollsters like Stan Greenberg, Geoff Garin, and the Biden campaign's own Celinda Lake have documented in their writings and research over the last few years.
In times of fear, division, and chaos, we don't just need comfort: we need vision and change. Joe Biden can be a historic and transformative president who forges a united Democratic Party, allowing us to create a long term governing majority.