The US economy is now performing extremely poorly. We can prove this by tracking the 26 key variables which measure economic health.
Our first article examined the four variables performing above average: unemployment, youth joblessness, median wealth and personal savings.
Our second article examined five areas of weakness: interest rates, inflation, wage growth, labor underutilisation and consumer spending.
We will now evaluate five more variables performing well below par.
Economic growth lagging badly
Annual growth in gross domestic product (GDP) for the 2019 fourth quarter was a lowly 2.33%. This now ranks 102nd globally, close to the lowest ranking ever.
The decline in the US economy relative to the rest of the world under Donald Trump has been quite alarming. We can compare over the three years since his inauguration the economic growth of the top twenty economies in the world – plus the European Union. We find the USA now lagging in 14th place. This contrasts with the Obama years when America was among the leaders.
The graph at the top shows Russia leading the world – as it now does in many areas since Trump has been president – with impressive growth of 36.4% over the three years. Several countries have grown by more than 20% over that period. The US is struggling at just 13.3%.
National prosperity slipping away
Despite having the world’s highest total GDP, the USA ranks only 12th in the world on GDP per person PPP, a handy measure of personal prosperity. The latest level is US$55,681.
Housing hiatus
The housing index measures the percentage increase of house values and usually shows an appreciation just above inflation. The average for the last eight years, since the end of the great recession has been 0.48% per month. Through 2019, however, this has slipped back to 0.36%, the lowest since the great recession.
Home ownership in the USA at 65.1% is slightly better than last year, but well below America’s long-term trend. This now ranks a lowly 32nd in the developed world.
Mining declining
Mining production in the United States increased 2.10% in February of 2020 over the same month in the previous year. With inflation at 2.3%, this is a decline in real terms. This is the fourth consecutive month with production in decline relative to last year.
Corruption
No surprise to read in Transparency International’s latest corruption report, released in January, that the USA now ranks a lowly 23rd in the world – with a score of just 69. The decline since Trump became president is continuing. From a reasonably strong 75 in January 2017, the score fell to 71 in 2018 and now 69, the lowest in eight years.
Transparency International reported that “While President Trump campaigned on a promise of “draining the swamp” and making government work for more than just Washington insiders and political elites, a series of scandals, resignations and allegations of unethical behaviour suggest that the “pay-to-play” culture has only become more entrenched.”
Pretty appalling. Unfortunately, there is worse to come. We will back soon to continue our analysis of the 26 key variables.
Meanwhile, readers are invited to agree, disagree, add more variables and, if you find this helpful, onpass to others who may also benefit from access to accurate data.