This is the diary I hoped I would never write.
On April 7, 2020, 1971 Americans died of COVID-19, which means that COVID-19 passed heart disease to become the leading cause of death in the United States. Not only are the number of deaths from COVID-19 increasing every day, but the daily death rate itself continues to grow, assuring that COVID-19 will remain the leading cause of death for many more days.
[Update: an earlier version of this diary stated that April 6 was the date. However that date was based on a “projected” death rate that proved to be premature. This version is confirmed by several sources. Also, the previous list of causes of death in 2020 was based on projections from 2017. This version uses data updated from 2018, which are virtually identical.]
Heart disease has been the number one cause of death in the US for many years, followed closely by cancer. Together they kill more than a million Americans every year. Tuesday we crowned a new champion.
The chart below shows the daily mortality rates for the top 10 killers in the US, and the dates that COVID-19 passed each one. On a daily basis, COVID-19 is now killing more Americans than heart disease, cancer, strokes, auto accidents, guns, diabetes, Alheimer’s — more than any of the other leading causes of death in America. This is definitely not just another case of a cold or the flu.
The death rate is expected to peak in mid to late April assuming all Americans do everything perfectly to curb the spread. However, if some states delay issuing blanket stay-at-home orders and some governors continue to open beaches, churches, and businesses prematurely, then the peak will rise higher and extend later.
For comparison with the US numbers, I checked mortality statistics in Italy. The number one killer of Italians has also historically been heart disease, with an estimated mortality rate of 598 deaths per day in a country with 60.5 million people. COVID-19 became the number one killer in Italy on March 20. While the daily COVID mortality rate is now declining, it has remained at number one every day since.
South Korea OTOH reported its first COVID-19 case on January 20, the same day as the first case in the US. But remarkably South Korea only recorded a total of 186 deaths and never had a day with more than 9 reported deaths from COVID-19. The number one cause of death in S Korea, a country of 51 million, has historically been cancer with a mortality rate currently estimated at 212 deaths per day. Heart disease is a distant second at 74 deaths per day. COVID-19 never even broke into the daily top-10 chart. Leadership matters.
For a number of reasons, COVID-19 statistics are almost certainly under-reported. But even based on the low-ball numbers, we have entered a new era in the US and it looks like we are in for a bumpy ride.