Welcome to the Pre-primary edition of OGGoldy’s Minnesota legislative elections. Minnesota campaign finance reports were released on 7/28 in advance of the August 11th primaries. Districts 1-28 are considered “Outstate” Minnesota, and are outside of the Minneapolis/St. Paul metropolitan area, while districts 29-67 are “Metro” districts in the Twin Cities area. More granularly, 29-58 are suburban and exurban seats, while 59-67 are urban districts in Minneapolis and St. Paul proper. The DFL currently holds a 75-59 majority in the chamber after flipping the chamber in the 2018 elections. The Senate is currently held by Republicans 35-32 after the 2016 elections, and flipping SD11 in a special election in early 2019. This will be the first edition that has all 201 seats mentioned. The 3 races which are included for partisan reference are 2012 Pres (Obama-Romney), 2016 Pres (Clinton-Trump) and 2018 Gov (Walz-Johnson). 2012 and had basically the same statewide margin, so the differences between those two races shows pretty indicatively the movement of the district over this decade.
The numbered districts can be found here (PDF Warning)
https://www.gis.leg.mn/pdf/leg2012/2012combo.pdf
District 1: Northwest Minnesota. This used to be a Democratic district, but has shifted had right in recent cycles. In 2008 both house seats were held by the DFL and in 2010 they were won by Republicans and they haven’t looked back. Senator Mark Johnson is going to win a second term after winning handily in 2016. Dan Fabian (R) in HD-1A is retiring after 10 years. He will be replaced by another Republican, likely GOP endorsed turkey farmer John Burkel.
House 1A: Romney (R) 54-43, Trump (R) 65-28, Johnson (R) 60-36
Rating: Safe R
House 1B: Romney (R) 52-46, Trump (R) 61-31, Johnson (R) 57-40
Rating: Safe R
Senate 1 Rating: Safe R
District 2: This district lies directly to the east of SD1 in NW Minnesota. Freshman GOP Senator Paul Utke defeated a long-entrenched incumbent DFLer in 2016 and is looking good for reelection in 2020 against local White Lake Nation official Leonard Roy. Roy, like most DFLers this cycle has outraised Utke, but the race will not be close on election day. District 2A is essentially the half of the Bemidji area that is in MN-7, the Red Lake Indian Reservation, and Lake of the Woods. This seat has changed hands multiple times in the last few cycles, with Democrat Roger Erickson alternating winning in 08, and 12, with Republican David Hancock winning in 10 and 14. Since then, Grossell has lagely been able to coast to reelection, and is a large favorite to do so again this year. This win coupled with the reddening of the district, Grossell is a prohibitive favorite for reelection against DFL perennial candidate Jeremiah Liend (last seen running as a running a write-in candidate against Tim Walz in 2018). Unlikely many other Dems running in hopeless districts this cycle, Liend has not garnered much in terms of backing or fundraising, only given a cursory DFL endorsement by virtue of being the only Dem in the race. Directly to the south of 2A is the more GOP friendly 2B with Park Rapids at its core. Republican Steve Green won this redrawn seat in 2012 and has held it since. Green will be facing retired construction company owner David Suby. Suby has actually outraised Green about 2:1, but it won’t matter, as Green is an entrenched over-performing incumbent and this is a district in the middle of nowhere, trending rightward.
House 2A: Romney (R) 50-48, Trump (R), 60-33, Johnson 55-41,
Rating: Safe R
House 2B: Romney (R) 56-42, Trump (R) 64-29, Johnson (R) 59-37 Safe R
Rating: Safe R
Senate 2 Rating: Safe R
District 3: Welcome to the northern side of the Iron Range and the BWCA: Home to former Senate Majority Leader Tom Bakk. Bakk was unceremoniously removed as Dem leader of the Senate this cycle, but he is running for reelection nonetheless. Bakk did get a last second Some Dude challenger in Christopher Hogan (who does not have a campaign website nor has raised much money at all). Funnily though Hogan appears to be using his personal Twitter as his only campaign mechanism; his Twitter handle is CHoganDuluthMN, which would be fine, expect Duluth isn’t even in the district. Woops. Incumbent DFL Reps Rob Ecklund and Mary Murphy both also have token GOP opposition in Thomas Manninen (a 2020 law school graduate) and Andrew Hjelle (no information available beyond a blank Facebook campaign page). Neither candidate is serious and Ecklund /Murphy are both safe for another term each.
House 3A: Obama (D) 55-42, Trump (R) 49-42, Walz (D) 52-44
Rating: Safe D
House 3B: Obama (D) 60-38, Clinton (D) 50-42 Franken (D) 58-39
Rating: Safe D
Senate 3 Rating: Safe D
District 4: This is essentially Moorhead and surrounding area. Senator Kent Eken (D) is facing Some Dude GOP candidate Mark Larson, who apparently isn’t bothering to campaign or raise anymore, having filed an affidavit that he is not spending money on a campaign at all, so Eken is safe for another term. The city of Moorhead more or less makes up the 4A half of the district, and the retirement of 8-year incumbent Ben Lien has led to our first major SNAFU situation in the state. The area DFL endorsed Some Dude DFL candidate Heather Keeler over Moorhead City Councilman Chuck Hendrickson. Such upsets happen from time to time at parochial nominating conventions, but Keeler is turning out to be an unmitigated disaster, having a whopping $1900 in campaign cash going into the primary, which is a majority of what she has raised, and in spite of having the official party backing, is treading water at best. Hendrickson is not abiding by the endorsement, and is running against Keeler in the primary anyways, but due to not having the political party behind him, he is doing it all on his own and donors are going to be sitting on their wallets until the primary is shaken out. This is a grotesque unforced error by the party endorsing a candidate who is well out of their league. The GOP has endorsed 2016 SD4 Also-ran candidate Edwin Hahn and does not appear to be generating much traction himself. It’s an outstate district, but one anchored by one of the bluest cities (and college town) Moorhead, and Keeler is still probably a marginal favorite if she gets to November, while Hendrickson would be a boring shoo-in, so I am leaving this at Lean D given the uncertainty of the primary. In the more Republican (rural areas around Moorhead) 4B Paul Marquart (DFL) an electoral juggernaut in his rural/”suburban” Clay County and got a last-minute Some Dude level challenger in Brian Anderson, who Marquart will certainly defeat for an 11th term Marquart remains OGGoldy’s early favorite for a congressional run in 2022, depending on map lines.
House 4A: Obama (D) 55-42, Clinton (D) 48-41, Walz (D) 56-39
Rating: Lean D
House 4B: Romney (R) 51-47, Trump (R) 57-35, Johnson (R) 53-43
Safe D
Senate 4 Rating: Safe D
District 5: The amalgam district, and is the most politically interesting in outstate Minnesota, with all of the seats hotly contested in 2020: 5B is the western influences of the Iron Range, and 5A is decisively not. I hold this district near and dear to my heart, as I have a lot of family and friends here. This district is one of the 3 or 4 I know better than any political subdivision anywhere, and it stretches from Bemidji on the west, and Grand Rapids and western Itasca County in the east. Alright, that’s enough about me and my sentiment for this district. Freshman GOP Senator Justin Eichorn won this seat in 2016 by narrowly unseating then-incumbent Tom Saxhaug, and faces a strong challenger in 4-term incumbent mayor of Bemidji Rita Albrecht. Albrecht has outraised Eichorn over 2:1 for the cycle and has caught him in COH (Eichorn had a pretty decent amount of money left over from 2016). This race starts off as a slight lean towards the incumbent, but expect this to be a close one and a strong flip contender if 2020 is less of an EVEN year and more of a DFL year. In 5A we have our first marquee House race in numerical order. Former 1-term GOP Rep Matt Bliss is facing off against current (and former) DFL Rep John Persell in one of the most highly contested race of that cycle: a rubber match, with Bliss narrowly winning in 2016 and Persell winning in 2018. Both parties are 100% solidified with “their” candidate, and have been since the day after election day 2018. Persell unseated Bliss by a whopping 11 votes last cycle (by far the lowest margin of any seat in the entire state), and there’s no reason to believe this race will be less close now. 100% Toss-up between the two heavyweights, both of whom are neck and neck in fundraising dollars. In 5B we reenter the Iron Range from the west, home of incumbent Republican Rep Sandy Layman who up until the filing deadline was looking to be a prohibitive favorite for another term, as she is a skilled politician. However at the last hour she pulled a switcheroo and baton-passed in Spencer Igo, a young political staffer. Igo has fundraised respectably well. Dems did get a decent B-level challenger against Layman in La Prairie City Councilman Joe Abeyta. Igo seems to have a pretty solid leg up in this reddening district, but he is not the sure-thing that Layman was going to be.
House 5A: Obama (D) 51-46, Trump (R) 51-39, Walz (D) 48-47
Rating: Toss-up
House 5B: Obama (D) 49-48, Trump (R) 56-36, Johnson (R) 52-45
Rating: Likely R
Senate 5 Rating: Lean R
District 6: Heart of the Iron Range: heavily DFL turf, though was seduced by Trump specifically in 2016. Incumbent Senator Dave Tomassoni has gotten a young challenger from his left flank in Christopher Horoshak, Horoshak has raised a little bit of money against the incumbent, but the primary is not going to be particularly close, as Horoshak has no campaign website, or any real infrastructure beyond a Twitter account. Tomassoni has been a pretty mainstream Dem over his 28-year legislative career, and is going to easily win his primary, and general election against GOP Some Dude trucker John Moren in November. Julie Sandstede (DFL) has settled into her seat representing 6A, which is markedly different than the wild 2016 primary that got her into office in the first place. She faces off against teacher Rob Farnsworth, her 2016 opponent, again in 2020; Sandstede won that election 59-40, and this election will be similar. Over in 6B we have freshman DFL Rep Dave Lislegard running in his first reelection bid against Republican Julie Buria, a Mountain Iron City Councilwoman. This election is hinging on the PolyMet mining issue, which is locally quite popular but significantly less popular in the rest of the state. Lislegard is moderately for the mining while Buria is 100% all-in on it. An anti-mining Dem would be at serious risk of losing this long-DFL-held seat, but Lislegard has seemed to thread the needle on the issue, and Buria isn’t raising tons of cash or getting traction given the lack of binary clarity on the one issue on everyone’s mind there.
House 6A: Obama (D) 63-34, Trump (R) 47-44, Walz (D) 55-41
Rating: Safe D
House 6B Obama (D) 62-36 Trump (R) 47-45, Walz (D) 55-41
Rating: Safe D
Senate 6 Rating: Safe D
District 7: Duluth. Duluth is a mini-San Francisco on the shore of Lake Superior, as well as the hub and port of the Iron Range that Dems win by 35-40 in most every election. Senator Erick Simonson got into a bit of a spat with his local party office and actually lost the endorsement against DFL a member of the endorsing committee: Jen McEwen. The primary is shaping up to be pretty ugly, but McEwen is proving to be an able politico and is a heavy, heavy favorite against the incumbent on August 11th. Whoever emerges will be a guaranteed Senator after the election against 2016 GOP candidate Donna Berghstrom (Simonson won by 35 last time) given the political leanings of the district. Representatives Jennifer Schultz and Liz Olson are both safely going to be reelected as DFLers in November. The GOP nominated Tom Sullivan and Art Johnson, FWIW.
House 7A: Obama (D) 67-30, Clinton (D) 61-28, Walz (D) 71-26
Rating: Safe D
House 7B Obama (D) 70-28, Clinton (D) 58-32, Walz (D) 67-28
Rating: Safe D
Senate 7 Rating: Safe D
District 8: This is blood red farm territory in NW Minnesota, so much so that Amy Klobuchar lost this area in 2006. That really does sum up the political leanings of Ottertail and Douglas Counties. No real race in the Senate as Bill Ingebrigtsen will be reelected easily to a 5th term. In 8A, long time GOP Representative Bud Nornes is retiring after 24 years. Republicans have seemed to settle on a young Harvard educated venture capitalist named Jordan Rasmusson, which is an interesting profile for a heavily agricultural area, but he will add State Representative to his job title come January regardless. This entire area should be safely Republican; however, district 8B is the home of one Mary Franson. Franson is a famously loud candidate that nearly lost her district, which is one of the most heavily Republican in the entire state. Dems have basically no bench here, which leaves all of the seats Safely in the GOP column, unless the tide turns more to the left as we approach election day AND Franson gets her hands on a microphone. Democrats are running the daughter of a long-ago local mayor Michelle Anderson, factory worker Brittney Johnson, and local businesswoman Carol Wenner for SD6, HD6A and HD6B respectively.
House 8A: Romney (R) 59-39, Trump (R) 63-31, Johnson (R) 59-39
Rating: Safe R
House 8B: Romney (R) 58-40, Trump (R) 65-28, Johnson (R) 61-36
Safe R
Senate 8 Rating: Safe R
District 9: This is an agricultural and summer cabin district north of St. Cloud and west of Brainerd that was not-so-long-ago competitive for Democrats, but those days are a distant memory by now. Republican Senate Leader Paul Gazelka will easily win his primary against tinfoil-hat conspiracy theorist Richard Dahl, and then win another term in his comfy Senate Seat against DFL Some Dude A. John Peterson. GOP Representatives John Poston and Ron Kresha will win against Alex Hering (Poston’s 2018 opponent he defeated 69-31) and first-time candidate Laura Wright respectively.
House 9A: Romney (R) 60-37, Trump (R) 70-23, McFadden (R) 54-41
Rating: Safe R
House B Romney (R) 60-37, Trump (R) 73-21, Johnson (R) 67-30
Rating: Safe R
Senate 9 Rating: Safe R
District 10: This is a sleepy north central Minnesota seat, and is home to Joe Radinovich. The fact that he was able to win 10B in 2012 as a 26 year old kid is pretty amazing in retrospect. Senator Carrie Rudd (R) is going to win a 3rd term, first in a primary against against conspiracy theorist Shaun Christian Hansen (Seriously, what is it with the conspiracy theorists this year? 2020 is weird), and then against Some Dude DFLer Steve Samuelson. 10A, which consists mostly of Brainerd with some of western Crow Wing County in there as well, is the more Republican of the two districts. 2-term GOP Rep. Josh Heintzman is getting a layup run for reelection against his 2018 opponent Dale Menk (Heintzman won 62-38 then, and the district isn’t getting bluer). The man who defeated the aforementioned Joe Radinovich in 2014, Dale Lueck, also has a sleepwalk of a race against another Some Dude: Gaylene Spolorich.
House 10A Romney (R) 55-43, Trump (R) 61-31, Johnson (R) 57-39
Rating: Safe R
House B Romney (R) 53-44, Trump (R) 62-31, Johnson (D) 58-38
Rating: Safe R
Senate 10 Rating: Safe R
District 11: This district is based south of Duluth. The northern part of the district has a decidedly Iron Range flavor, and the southern portion is North Woods, but no Iron Range (picture the Venn diagram). Due to it being a combination of Duluth metro spillover and the Fond du Lac reservation, the DFL is dominant in Carlton County to the north, while the southern part of the district is Republican and becoming even more so. Republican Senator Jason Rarick won his seat in a 2019 special election against the son of the former Senator in this seat. He will be a strong favorite for reelection in November but does have a strong challenger in former TV anchor and 2018 MN-8 candidate Michelle Lee. Rarick and Lee have played to a draw on the finance front, and the fundamentals favor the incumbent here. In 11A, DFL incumbent Mike Sundin (DFL) is likely to win a 5th term against Republican realtor Jeff Dotseth in a 2018 rematch (Sundlin won the first round 58-42). In 11B, Nathan Nelson (R) won the special election to replace Rarick upon Rarick moving to the Senate. Nelson will face off against local farmer Jack Frechette. Frechette has no chance at winning, but he has outraised the incumbent 2:1 and will keep it more respectable than a generic Some Dude, but Hinckley is too far to the right for a DFLer to win these days.
House 11A: Obama (D) 62-36, Clinton (D) 47-45, Walz (D) 56-41
Rating: Likely D
House 11B: Romney (R) 51-47, Trump (R) 61-31, Johnson (R) 55-40
Rating: Safe R
Senate 11 Rating: Likely R
District 12: As recently as 2012, Democrats could still win some of these expansive farmland districts. This is Collin Peterson country, with sugar beets, corn, and soybeans as far as the eyes can see. Those days seem but a distant memory here in 2020, as the district has solidified strongly into the GOP column now. State Senator Torrey Westrom (R), who is best known nationally as the guy who lost to Collin Peterson for MN-7. Locally he is known as a wildly popular State Senator, and will easily win another term in St. Paul against local museum curator Jill Abahsain. . The Dem running against incumbent 12A GOP Rep Jeff Backer is retired teacher Murray Smart, for the second cycle in a row. True to form in rural America, Smart was actually Backer’s high school social studies teacher way back when. Backer won Round 1 62-38, which seems like a pretty reasonable expectation for the rematch. 12B is substantially more Republican than 12A, and incumbent Paul Anderson (R) has another rematch this year opponent this year, against local musician Ben Schrimers. Anderson won 71-29, just to paint a picture of what this race will look like in November.
House 12A: Romney (R) 52-46, Trump 59-33, Johnson (R) 56-40
Rating: Safe R
House 12B: Romney (R) 62-36, Trump 70-24 Johnson (R) 65-33
Rating: Safe R
Senate 12 Rating: Safe R
District 13: This is more farm county surrounding St. Cloud, and is generally quite Republican. This Senate seat was the location of a great deal of drama in 2018 when former State Senate President Michelle Fischbach was forced to ascend to the office of Lieutenant Governor against her will, and attempted to retain her senate seat up until the Minnesota Supreme Court told her that she was LG and no longer a State Senator. It was a super awkward chain of events that was started off by Al Franken resigning from the US Senate and Mark Dayton appointing his then-LG Tine Smith to the Senate. This year is shaking out to be much more benign. Fischbach’s 2016 self-avowed socialist (officially running on the DFL line) Mike Willemsen is running again, and is unlikely to do any better against now-incumbent Senator Jeff Howe (R), which is to say he will likely lose 69-31 again. Freshman GOP 12A Representative Lisa Demuth drew only a token Some Dude candidate Katy Westlund, and will not need to be campaigning this year. Next door in 13B, Republican incumbent Tim O’Driscoll isn’t in any real danger against Air Force veteran and cyber security expert Ben Carollo. Carollo ran an aborded 2018 campaign against O’Driscoll but dropped out when he did not get the endorsement. While Carollo has a flashy website, as befitting an IT guy candidate, his campaign hasn’t raised much money and is not going to seriously challenge O’Driscoll.
House 13A: Romney (R) 57-41, Trump (R) 64-29, Johnson (R) 59-37
Rating: Safe R
House 13B: Romney (R) 57-41, Trump (R) 63-30, Johnson (R) 58-38
Rating: Safe R
Senate 13 Rating: Safe R
District 14: This district is a dot of purple in a sea of red, consisting of St. Cloud and the immediate surrounding area, and is home to St. Cloud State University. Freshman Senator Jerry Relph won by 139 votes against now-14B Representative Dan Wolgamott (D). Democrats see Relph as a prime target, and are running 2018 14A candidate Aric Putnam. Putnam lost the more Republican half of the district by 4 to GOP State Rep Tama Theis. SD14 is a pure toss-up and this is going to be a major battleground with both parties seeing it as a potential candidate for the all-important seat 34 going into redistricting. Both candidates are well-funded, but Relph has edged out Putman on the cash game by a bit thus far, though both candidates have significant money to burn. Speaking of Tama Theis, she is running for reelection in 14A, this time against retiring teacher Tami Calhoun. Calhoun won the part endorsement over local union electrician Joe Baratta on May 7th,, who then dropped out before the filing deadline preventing a primary. For a reason I have not been able to identify, neither Theis nor Calhoun are fundraising well, at all: well below the level of other competitive or even fringe competitive seats. Both parties have a vested interest in reducing down ticket vote splitting, as the Senate race is seen of paramount importance as one of the 2-3 most important elections in the entire state. District 14B has seen perhaps the wildest swings of any House district in the state this decade. This is largely due to the fact that St. Cloud State University, with its 15,000 students, makes up a large portion of this district, and they tend to have inconsistent turnout in various elections to put it mildly. In 2018 the aforementioned Dan Wolgamott defeated the then-Ways and Means Chairman Jim Knoblach in a bizarre election where Knoblach was outed as a piece of shit human by his daughter, causing him to end his campaign without the ability to be replaced on the ballot. Wolgamott is running against archconservative St. Cloud City Councilman Paul Brandmire. Brandmire seems to have caught the Theis/Calhoun bug and not gotten word that fundraising is a thing politicians do, however Wolgamott has amassed a sizeable warchest. I am tempted to move this into Safe D territory, but with the uncertainty about SCSU students being on campus in November, this one is still going to be left at Likely D, for now.
House 14A: Romney (R) 49-47, Trump (R) 51-40, Johnson (R) 49-47
Rating: Lean R
House 14B, Obama (D) 53-43, Trump (R) 46-43, Walz (D) 52-42
Rating: Likely D
Senate 14 Rating: Toss-up
District 15: This is a Republican area east of St. Cloud, with the Mille Lacs Band of Ojibwe reservation in 15A. Freshman GOP Senator Andrew Mathews is running for reelection for the first time against railroad worker Brent Krist, who is not an electoral threat to Senator Mathews. Incumbent 15A GOP representative Sondra Erickson has represented this seat since 1998, and won’t be ending her streak now against DFL Some Dude Calvin Schmock. In the more conservative 15B, Freshman Republican Rep Shane Mekeland is facing off in a primary against a solidly TEA-flavored SoCon retired army veteran John Ulrick. Ulrick sought the 2018 GOP endorsement for this seat, but did not go through with a primary that year; this year he is. Ulrick isn’t a serious candidate and Mekeland will beat him on August 11th and go on to defeat DFL challenger Ron Theissen, who is of no relation to current Minnesota Supreme Court Judge / former Minnesota Speaker of the House Paul Theissen.
House 15A: Romney (R) 55-42 Trump (R) 66-26, Johnson (R) 61-35
Rating: Safe R
House 15B: Romney (R) 63-35, Trump 71-22, Johnson (R) 66-30
Rating: Safe R
Senate 15 Rating: Safe R
District 16: This is basically a southern bank Minnesota River Valley district. Senator Gary Dahms, as well as Representatives Chris Swendzinksi, Paul Torkelson, all Republicans, are going to be reelection. Easily. Dahms doesn’t have a DFL opponent, but has drawn a Legal Marijuana Now opponent in Stoney Preslicka (fitting name, considering). The Representatives drew Some Dude DFL challengers Doria Drost and Mindy Kimmel, with Kimmel being a repeat challenger from 2018 (losing 63-37). Technically Torkelson also has a GOP primary challenger Tammy Houle, but she is not running a campaign and filed an affidavit with the Campaign Finance Board that she will not be raising or spending money on a campaign.
House 16A: Romney (R) 52-45, Trump (R) 60-31, Johnson (R) 56-41
Rating: Safe R
House 16B: Romney (R) 57-40 Trump (R) 64-27 Johnson (R) 56-40
Rating: Safe R
Senate 16 Rating: Safe R
District 17: We cross the river to the north side of the Minnesota River here. This used to be much more DFL leaning than the southern bank, though has moved hard and fast rightward in the last few cycles. With former State Rep & Senator Lyle Koenen’s comeback bid to his former House Seat squelched hard in 2018, that likely marks the end of any DFL electoral possibilities here. The man who unseated Koenen in 2016 is GOP Senator Andrew Lang. Lang faces off a decent B-list candidate in Wilmar City Councilman Fernando Alvardo. Alvardo has some life to him campaign-wise, but Lang is not going to be unseated. 17A incumbent Tim Miller, 1 of 4 members of the New Republican, aka “Temper Tantrum Caucus” formed when rural a few rural Republican representatives got mad at the suburban/exurban GOP leadership in the wake if the resounding 2018 defeat in the House, is running for reelection against the winner of 2 Some Dude level DFLers, Ben Dolan or Robert Wright, and a LMN candidate in Ed Engelmann. Regardless of who wins the primary, Miller is safe for another term. 17B GOP incumbent Dave Baker is going to win against college student Logan Kortgard.
House 17A: Romney (R) 51-47, Trump (R) 63-30, Johnson (R) 57-39
Rating: Safe R
House 17B Romney (R) 51-47, Trump (R) 57-35, Johnson (R) 55-42
Rating: Safe R
Senate 17 Rating: Safe R
District 18: This is where the exurbs meet the cornfields. This is prime Republican territory. The Republican incumbents are running for reelection, and will win easily. Senator Scott Newman is facing county DFL Party Chair Chad Tschimperle. In 18A, longtime 18A incumbent Dean Urdahl (R) is running again without opposition, for the second time in 3 cycles. In 18B, incumbent Republican representative Glen Gruenhagen faces a no-name Dem Heather Bakke.
House 18A: Romney (R), 58-40 Trump (R) 65-27, Johnson (R) 61-35
Rating: Safe R
House B Romney (R) 60-37 Trump (R) 67-25, Johnson (R) 67-33
Rating: Safe R
Seante Rating: Safe R
District 19: This is essentially Mankato and Nicollet County in south-central Minnesota, and is pretty blue turf. Freshman Senator Nick Frentz (D) doesn’t currently have any real opponent for and the local GOP from what I understand failed to get someone to run other than conspiracy theorist Elizabeth Bangert, who refuses to respond to media inquiries, create a campaign website, or provide reporting to the state on campaign financing (if there is any at all). The local GOP declined to endorsement Bangert, even though she is the only one to file prior to their digital convention. Incumbent 19A Representative Jeff Brand is running for his first reelection to the House. Retired GOP nurse Susan Akland filed, and much to the chagrin chagrin of local and state Republicans, former 3-time candidate Kim Spears did not. Ackland appears to have raised a little bit of money through not enough to move the race any closer than Likely D. In 19B, which is effectively Mankato proper, DFLer Jack Considine is retiring after 6 years. The 19A DFL endorsement went, perhaps in a bit of an upset, to AFSCME official Luke Frederick against former Mankato City Councilman Jason Mattick. Frederick is the prohibitive favorite in November against Some Dude GOP last-second filer Jeremy Loger. Loger does not have a website and is not raising money for his campaign.
House 19A: Obama (D) 52-45, Trump (R) 47-43, Walz (D) 58-39
Rating: Likely D
House 19B: Obama (D) 57-40, Clinton (D) 48-41, Walz (D) 63-33
Rating: Safe D
Senate 19 Rating: Safe D
District 20. The northern portion of this district is some far-flung exurbs (A), and the southern part (B) is actually DFL leaning farmland and the liberal college town of Northfield, former home of Senator Paul Wellstone. Freshman Senator Rich Draheim (R) is running for reelection for the first time after unseating former State Senator Kevil Dahle in 2016. The local DFL has endorsed retired Navy officer Jon Olson, over Northfield city councilwoman Suzie Nakasian, and Olson is getting by without a primary as Nakasian abided by the endorsement, as is customary. This race is turning out to be a high dollar, contentious general election with Olson outraising Drahein 3:1 and surpassing him in COH. While I am keeping this at Lean R for now, this is a race that could easily move into toss-up territory as we move closer to November. GOP incumbent Bob Vogel is retiring after 3 terms, and while conservative, this seat seems to be a situation where there is a clear discrepancy in candidate quality that puts this race on the board at Likely R. Local School Board Vice Chair Erina Prom is the DFL candidate and is campaigning circles around local bank president Brian Pfarr. Pfarr seems to have some donations coming in as a banker, but he doesn’t even have a website and I have not been able to track down if he actually has a campaign apparatus beyond someone to sign the “Treasurer” line on his campaign paperwork. In 20B incumbent DFLer Todd Lippert will be having a 2018 rematch against trucker Josh Gare, a matchup Lippert won 55-45. Lippert is a prohibitive favorite against Gare, and is now running with the (i) next to his name.
House 20A: Romney (R) 58-40, Trump (R) 62-30, Johnson (R) 57-39
Rating: Likely R
House 20B: Obama (D) 54-44, Clinton (D) 47-46, Walz (D) 55-41
Likely D
Senate 20 Rating: Lean R
District 21: This is very marginal territory overall that essentially covers the SE corner of MN-2 along the Mississippi river. Freshman State Senator Michael Goggin (R) is running for reelection in this Red Wing (of Red Wing Boot fame) based seat after narrowly unseating former Senator Matt Schmit (D) in 2016. The local DFL went with moderate farmer and solar power executive Ralph Kaeler. Kaehler served as a agricultural trade representative for both governors Jesse Venture (I) and Tim Pawlenty (R). Kaehler is considered a top-level recruit for the DFL, and he defeated more liberal challengers at the convention. Kaehler, like many DFL challengers, has outraised Goggin 3:1 this year, and while he still trails the incumbent a bit in the COH game, that gap is closing fast as money pours in to Kaehler’s coffers. Given the fundraising disparity, this race is getting moved from Likely R to Lean R. in 21A GOP Rep Barb Haley is running for reelection and she is facing off against teacher Matt Bruns. Haley won by a surprisingly large margin in this purple seat in 2018 against a higher-level challenger than Bruns, thus giving her a Likely R rating in this purple seat. In the more Republican 21B, incumbent Steve Drazkowski (another member of the Temper Tantrum Caucus) (R) is running again against Dem Elgin City Councilwoman Elise Diesslin, but the fact Eiesslin is an elected politician does not change 21B’s rating from Safe R.
House 21A: Obama (D) 51-47, Trump(R) 51-40, Walz (D) 48-47
Rating: Likely R
House 21B: Romney (R) 54-44, Trump (R) 61-31, Johnson (R) 55-42
Rating: Safe R
Senate 21 Rating: Lean R
District 22: This is the southwest corner of the state, and full of corn fields. Once, long ago, able to be won by Democrats, the area is now very Republican, and contains the only 2 counties in the entire state Amy Klobuchar lost in 2012: Rock and Pipestone. Senator Bill Weber faces off against Dem counselor Shawna Marshall. Rep Joe Schomacker (R-22A) first won this seat 6 months getting his MPA from George Washington University at age 24 in 2010. 10 years later he is going into a pretty uneventful reelection campaign against Some Dude Christ Baumberger. Next door in 22B, Rod Hamilton, first elected in 2004, is equally assured of a 9th term against his own Some Dude DFL challenger counselor Lynn Herrick.
House 22A: Romney (R) 56-41, Trump(R) 66-27, Johnson (R) 60-38
Rating: Safe R
House 22B: Romney (R) 54-44, Trump (R) 63-30, Johnson (R) 55-42
Rating: Safe R
Senate 22 Rating: Safe R
District 23: This is the south-central Minnesota district along the Iowa border: pretty conservative turf. Senator Julie Rosen will make it to an even 20 years in the Senate by the end of her next term, as she has no Dem opponent, and faces only a token Legal Marijuana Now party candidate David Pulkrabek. 23A will have a new representative for the first time in 26 years, as long-time GOP incumbent Bob Gunther is hanging it up to enjoy a peaceful retirement at home. The race to replace Gunther was supposed to be pretty smoothe sailing, but the GOP endorsement of Elmore mayor Bjorn Olson (a non-controversial mainstream Republican) did not sit well with the minority of the convention delegates who preferred firebrand conservative engineer Mike Sukalski. Sukalskis is mounting a full court press against the endorsed mayor, and has actually outraised Olson by a significant amount. This race is going to be really close on election night, and as it sits now Sukalski may have a slight leg up on Olson. Regardless of who wins the primary, he will go on to win the general election against local nurse Patricia Fahey-Bacon. Incumbent 23B representative Jeremy Munson won a special election to replace Tony Cornish, who resigned in early 2018 due to being outed as a sexual predator. Jeremy Munson, a term and a half in, has garnered a primary challenger in the form of local reindeer farmer (yes, a real job in Minnesota) Yvonne Simon. There doesn’t appear to be much in terms of ideological difference between the two, unlike the primary in 23A. Munson maintains a large cash advantage, and Simon does not appear to be gaining the traction that Sukalski is next door. Like in the other half of the district, the winner of the primary is a strong favorite in the General Election against local Township Councilman Leroy McClelland. Though if bad blood exists following the primary, this district isn’t SO red that McClelland, a solid B-level recruit, couldn’t pull off the upset if the year turns out as leaning to the left.
House 23A: Romney (R) 59-39, Trump (R) 66-27, Jonhosn (R) 58-39,
Rating: Safe R
House 23B: Romney (R) 50-47, Trump (R) 59-32, Johnson (D) 50-47,
Rating: Likely R
Senate 23 Rating: Safe R
District 24: This is a locally light red area around Owatana and Fairbault in southern Minnesota. Freshman Senator John Jasinski (R) unseated the former DFL Senator in his seat, and is running for reelection for the first time. Jasinski was a long-time mayor in Fairbaul, so he has built up significant political capital in the area. His Dem opponent is a retired missionary / agricultural professor Roger Steinkamp, who spent most of his adult life around Africa teaching agricultural practices to rural populations there. Steinkamp has a cool personal story, but a really odd fit for this senate seat, and Jasinski is going to win reelection in a seat he wrested from the DFL just 4 years ago. The slightly more historically Republican half, 24A, incumbent GOP representative John Petersburg is running for a 5th term, and will face off against former 2-term State Rep (circa 1981-1985) Tom Shea. Shea is making a comeback bid after 36 years, which is an impressive span of time. Shea has not really picked up on the fundraising spectrum, and this district would be a massive uphill climb for any DFLer; Shea’s comeback bid is not going to end in a return trip to St. Paul. In 24B we have State Rep Brian Daniels (R) running against Some Dude Dem Ashley Martinez-Perez, who is not running a serious campaign. Daniels, FWIW is the brother of 29A State Representative Marion O’Niell.
House 24A: Romney (R) 52-45, Trump (R) 57-33, Johnson (R) 53-44
Rating: Safe R
House 24B: Romney (R) 50-47, Trump (R) 58-33, Franken (D) 53-42
Rating: Safe R
Senate 24 Rating: Safe R
Districts 25 and 26. I do these together, as they are essentially mirror images of each other. 25B and 26A are Rochester, and have gone from a Republican bastion to a DFL stronghold in just a few short years. This used to be the land of Republicans like Gil Gutknecht, but those days have passed as the Mayo Clinic has exploded and more educated liberals move to the area for work. 25A and 26B are the surrounding areas around Rochester, and are currently Republican seats, as they have not seen the influx that Rochester proper has, though that is changing rather quickly in recent cycles with both GOP incumbents being held to single digits for the first time in a long time In the Senate, incumbent David Senjem (R-SD25) is running for reelection after holding his seat since 2003 and having for a period of time been the GOP leader in that chamber before being ousted for more ideologically pure leadership. in 2018. Senjem will face off against DFL businesswoman Sara Flick. Senjem has survived some rough reelections, so he is a favorite here and holds a decent fundraising advantage over Flick, but this district is changing, fast. In SD26, incumbent Carla Nelson is running for reelection. The DFL has a bit of a logjam here, as 2018 26B nominee and former Eyota mayor Tyrel Clark was boxed out of the endorsement for this seat in favor of physician Dr. Aleta Borrud. This move appears to have been a good call by the local DFL,as Borrud has crushed Nelson in fundraising more than 3:1. Nelson, quite weirdly, has gone all-in on demanding that all schools open immediately for in-classroom teaching, despite the unpopularity of the position nationally in the midst of the pandemic, but also sets up a slow-pitch softball to Dr. Borrud’s wheelhouse. With the mayo clinic becoming such a central focus during COVID, and Borrud’s history as a physician there, this race is getting moved into the Lean D category. Obviously, this can change over the next few months, but it’s getting tougher to see Nelson pulling a win off at this point. 25A incumbent Duane Quame is coming off his weakest reelection performance to date in 2018 where he got caught napping, not fundraising, exhibiting some bizarre behavior on the campaign trail and was given a race he was not expecting. It appears as though he has not learned any lessons from 2018, and is raisng less money than sacrificial lambs in safe seats. His 2020 opponent will be special education teacher Kim Hicks, who is not running a spectacular campaign herself, but has outraised Quame. One of these days being a feckless campaigner will cost Quame, though I am not sure if the tide will be quite high enough for Hicks to be swept in as a mediocre also-ran, but it’s not impossible or even improbable. In 25B, DFL incumbent Duane Sauke (D) is retiring after just 2 terms in St. Paul. The local DFL has endorsed ICU nurse Liz Boldon to try and hold this seat for the blue team. Republicans are running 2018 nominee Ken Bush (who lost to Sauke 60-40) for a second time, and will likely have the same margin. In 26A we have DFL incumbent Tina Liebling, and got a last-second filing Some Dude GOPer Gary Melin. GOP Representative Nels Pierson is running for reelection after a near miss in 2018 against Tyrel Clark. Clark is not running again, but long-time local TV meteorologist Randy Brock is running for reelection. If you thought Quame was too energetic of a campaigner, Nels Pierson circa 2020 is your man! He has been outraised over 8:1, and appears to be in full IDGAF mode in spite of being held to a 7-point win 2-years ago against a much less well known opponent. Good luck on that one, Nels.
House 25A: Romney (R) 52-45, Trump (R) 52-37, Johnson (R) 50-47
Rating: Lean R
House 25B: Obama (D) 53-44, Clinton (D) 50-40, Walz (D) 59-38
Rating: Safe D
Senate 25 Rating: Lean R
House 26A: Obama (D) 57-40, Clinton (D) 53-36, Walz (D) 62-34
Rating: Safe D
House 26B: Romney (R) 53-44, Trump (R) 53-38, Johnson (R) 50-47
Rating: Lean R
Senate 26 Rating: Lean D (FLIP)
Districts 27. This area is swingy historically DFL cornfields along the Iowa border, akin to neighboring IA-1 to the south. 27A is more or less Albert Lea/ Freeborn County, and 27B is more or less Austin/Mower County. Senator Dan Sparks (D) has held this seat since 2002 and faces his 2016 opponent in Gene Dornink. Dornink got within 3 points of Sparks in 2020. Notably, Dornink is the only GOP challenger in a competitive Senate race to actually outraise the DFL incumbent. With the new-fundraising totals now known, this race is going to Toss-up, and is the most likely Dem-held seat to flip at this point. Gun to my head, I give the edge to Sparks given his long-incumbency and defeating his opponent in a less friendly cycle last time, but this race is going to be SUPER tight. In 27A, incumbent Republican Peggy Bennett has proven to be an electorally strong politician and put an end to this seat flipping back and forth with the political winds. Dems are putting up 36-year-old college student Thomas Martinez against the incumbent, but he is not a serious candidate. Oddly, an even LESS seriously Dem filed to run in the primary against Martinez, but pulled the incredibly odd move of officially dropping out after the filing deadline but before the primary; not that he was a serious candidate either, mind you. 27B incumbent Democratic Representative Jeanne Poppe has represented the area since 2004. Republicans are running local teacher Patricia Mueller. Mueller at least has a website up, but she isn’t raising much money and does not appear to be an serious of athread to Poppe than she was in 2018, which ended in a 15-point Poppe victory.
House 27A: Obama (D) 55-42,, Trump (R) 55-37, Walz (D) 48.48-48.03
Rating: Safe R
House 27B Obama (D) 60-38, Trump (R) 50-42, Walz (D) 52-44
Rating: Safe D
Senate 27 Rating: Toss-up
District 28: This is the southeastern corner of the state along the Iowa/Wisconsin border and the Mississippi river around and south of the college town of Winona. The northern part around Winona is generally a solidly DFL area, while the southern 28B is swingier. Senate President Jeremy Miller has won this seat for Republicans since 2010, and is one of the most DFL seat held by Republicans. Miller has proven to be a strong overperformer, but Democrats looking to eke out a lead in the chamber are hoping to trip him up this this year. The local DFL has endorsed Sarah Kruger, a local businesswoman to take on Miller. Kruger does not seem exceptional in her own right thus far, so a strong edge to Miller for reelection. Incumbent 28A Rep Gene Pelowski (DFL) has represented the Winona area in the House of Representatives since his first election in 1986, and has not been challenged seriously in decades, wasn’t by anyone at all in 2018, and is repeating that same feat in 2020. In 28B there is Republican incumbent Greg Davids, who has represented this area more or less since 1991. He did lose for a single term in 2006, but won against the man who defeated him, Ken Tschumper against the 2008 headwind. Greg Davids faced a strong well-funding challenger in 2018 and still won by 11. This year Dems are basically punting by putting up Some Dude level candidate Jordan Fontenello, a local X-ray tech. Davids is safe for reelection
House 28A: Obama (D) 56-41, Clinton (D) 46-44, Walz (D) 58-38
Rating: Safe D
House B: Obama (D) 52-46, Trump (R) 55-37, Johnson (R) 48.59-48.35
Rating: Safe R
Senate 28 Rating: Likely R
Outstate Minnesota is where the lion’s share of the action on the Senate side will take place, as a large majority of the metro seats are too partisan to be flipping beyond where they currently sit. In outstate, there are two toss-up districts, 14 and 27, one from each party, and district 26 is leaning towards a R to D flip. Democrats need to flip only 2 seats to flip the chamber. The House is not being seriously contested and will remainin in DFL hands.
Part 2 will be released next week, and will contain the metro districts.