Nate Silver’s 2020 Election Model is Out – As is his Warning
Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight is out with his 2020 Election Model and the opening odds it gives Biden are,coincidentally (and little scarily), exactly the same as the final odds 538 gave of a Hillary win in 2016: 71% .
As we’ve been reminded every day for the past four years, a 71% chance of winning is excellent but a 29% chance is NOT nothing. Far from it. It’s roughly the same odds of losing a game of Russian Roulette with not one, but two bullets in the gun or that guaranteed Hall of Famer Mike Trout has of getting a hit each time he comes up to bat, so very, very possible.
More important than reviewing the model however is to read Silver's detailed summary of where the race stands right now: It's Way Too Soon to Count Trump Out. His very well thought out bottom line is
"if you’re not taking [Trump's] 29 percent chance as a serious possibility, I’m not sure there’s much we can say at this point, although there’s a Zoom poker game that I’d be happy to invite you to."
The TL;DR of his fairly long and detailed piece is the polls are accurate and have been remarkably stable, and the polarization in the country means there aren't many undecided voters to move at the last minute like there were in 2016. On the other hand the covid-19 pandemic means there could be huge changes in both the spread of the disease (good or bad) and huge changes in what's happening in the economy (also good or bad), which means the polls could still move significantly between now and November.
A Look at the Senate
The current Senate is 47 Democrats (including Vermont’s Bernie Sanders and Maine’s Angus King, independents who caucus with the Democrats) and 53 Republicans. By my count – using the most recent polls from 538 "B-" or better pollsters, if the election were held today (which as Silver points out emphatically in his piece today and ALL THE TIME it is NOT) the Democrats are in position to flip four seats and lose one, with several seats in races that are too close to call and another couple that may be in play if things are rolling in a blue direction.
The Betting Markets Like the Democrats Chances
The betting markets (BetFair and FTX aggregated) like the Democratic chances to control the Senate in 2021. Current odds are essential 60 % chance of Dems winning control. We like that.
MyDaily-SnapShot Senate gauge (based on state level polling) currently looks like this:
The needle (at 52 expected seats right now) points to:
1) the number of seats the Dems currently have,
PLUS
2) the number of seats the currently polls say they should flip (i.e., where the Dem lead is +3 or greater),
PLUS
3) one half the number of races that are currently Too Close to Call (figuring they split those races),
MINUS
3) the seat they’re likely to lose (Alabama).
The lighter blue area is the range between losing all the Too Close to Call races and winning those same races. If we lose them all, we still should get to 50 seats. If we win them all, we can get to 54. More than that means winning some long shots.
Here’s how it breaks down:
Seats the Democrats Have a Good Chance to Flip
There are four states Dems are currently in position to flip: Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina.
Arizona
The latest poll from a good pollster in Arizona is the August 11, Emerson College (538 "A-"rated) poll which has Mark Kelly+11 over Martha McSally. Kelly has been up pretty consistently in all recent polling from decent pollsters.
Maine
The August 6 Quinnipiac University poll for Maine is the most recent high quality poll on this race and has Democrat Sara Gideon up +4 over Republican Susan"I’m Very Concerned" Collins. Notably Gideon has been holding strong at about +4 in every high quality poll since March.
Colorado
Unfortunately,there’s no good recent polling here. With Colorado no longer much of a contest between Biden and Trump, and Democrat John Hickenlooper leading by double digits over Republican Cory Gardner in polls early in the summer, pollsters have likely moved on to more tightly contested states. The most recent high quality poll of the Colorado Senate race was the PPP poll from July 1,which had Hickenlooper a comfortable +11 over Gardner. That number is getting old however and isn’t feeling quite as comfortable. FWIW,Morning Consult, a pollster of meh quality at best, had Hickenlooper+6 on July 28. Even using the Morning Consult poll though Colorado is a likely Democratic win at the moment.
North Carolina
Cal Cunningham has held a steady lead over Thom Tillis in this race for some time, but the race has been tightening in the last few days Data for Progress (538 "B-" rated) had Cunningham +8 there as recently as August 6, but the August 10 PPP (538 "B" rated) poll has him only +4 there, and yesterday’s August 11 Emerson College (538 "A-" rated) poll has him down to +3.
The race in North Carolina looks like it may be getting closer, but so far it’s still Lean Democrat.
Races that are Too Close to Call
Georgia
In the August 11 SurveyUSA poll Republican David Perdue is +3 over Democrat Jon Ossoff, with a lot of voters (15%) still undecided. YouGov’s August 2 poll had Perdue up only +2. A late July Emerson University poll had Perdue +6, but that, so far is an outlier. This one is leaning red, but still in Too Close to Call territory, especially with so many undecided voters and possibly a battlefield in the presidential race that Democrats pour money into.
The Georgia Special Election Cage Match
I wrote about this one the other day. Two Dems and two Republicans still duking it out for this one and no one yet polling more than 26%. This may change if any one of them drops out consolidating their party’s vote, but right now this one’s Too Close to Call.
Kansas
The Republicans dodged a bullet when voter fraud fraudster Kris Kobach lost in the primary, but Republican establishment candidate RogerMarshall still has a fight on his hands. Today’s SurveyUSA poll has him up only +2 (46% to 44%) over Democrat Barbara Bollier with a significant 10% of voters still undecided.
Iowa
The August 6 Data for Progress poll has Democrat Theresa Greenfield up +2 (42% to 40%) over incumbent Republican Joni Ernst with a whopping 18% still undecided. Monmouth University had Ernst +1 (48% to 47%) inits August 5 Iowa poll. Another nail biter.
South Carolina
Lindsey Graham is in a real battle to retain his seat in South Carolina. The August 11 PPP poll has him +3 over Democrat Jaime Harrison but as recently as August 6, Quinnipiac University poll had the race dead even. Both polls had enough undecideds to decide the outcome if they break in one direction or the other.
Other States in Play
Montana
In Montana’s Battle of the Steves, Republican Steve Daines was +6 (44%to 50%) over current governor and former presidential candidate Democrat Steve Bullock. Bullock however was +2 (46% to 44%) as recently as the July 13 PPP poll and was +4 in a July 1 University of Montana poll, so while the Montana Senate race is leaning red, it’s still one to watch.
Kentucky
Everyone loves to hate Mitch McConnell, even Kentuckians, but he’s still polling +5 over Democrat AmyMcGrath in the August 6 Quinnipiac University poll. If McConnell loses, the Democrats likely already have control of the Senate, so as much as we’d all like to see him unceremoniously retired, this race probably isn’t too consequential in the bigger scheme of things.
Alabama
Not much recent polling from good pollsters here but the polling there is is all bad for Democrat Doug Jones. Plan on losing this one in deep red Alabama.