Once the Democrats broke the Republican gerrymandering of Virginia districts and fair elections were held in 2019, Virginia became a blue trifecta—meaning the Democrats controlled both houses of the state legislature and the governor’s mansion. Democrats immediately restored voting rights, made Election Day a holiday, and extended voting hours. These small actions ensured a Democratic majority for years to come; no dirty tricks, sabotaging institutions, or shady gerrymandering were required. Turns out that being responsive to the people, passing popular laws, and making voting accessible were all that was needed to keep Democrats in power. Novel concept.
North Carolina is on the exact same trajectory as Virginia: Its urban centers have grown steadily, and the suburbs, along with those of the rest of the nation, have turned sharply toward Democrats. The state population has become much younger, much more racially diverse, and increasingly progressive. On the other hand, the state Republican Party—under Michael Whatley and prominent Tar Heel Republicans like Thom Tillis—has followed Trump’s lead in retreating backward toward nativism, division, and racist rhetoric. Their fearmongering has not only backfired, it has been a driving force in turning younger progressives in the state into activists.
It’s easy to focus on the national races right now, but the change and the power comes from winning the state legislatures. Daily Kos has targeted 47 legislative candidates in several states this year to make that happen. In North Carolina, we have a very real opportunity to flip both the General Assembly and the State Senate from red to blue, meaning fully funded education, access to health care, rolling back attacks on women’s health, and automatic voter registration are all within reach. When Virginia obtained the blue trifecta, Democrats raised the minimum wage, expanded renewable energies, and granted legal driving privileges to undocumented immigrants—all in a single day. That can be North Carolina this year, and with the 2020 redistricting effort, this is our chance to turn this state blue for at least the next decade.
To understand how this sea change is possible, we have to first understand what happened to North Carolina's Republicans, who went from being fully in charge with supermajorities to resorting to outright ballot fraud to win once it was clear North Carolina couldn’t handle any more Republican rule. Once conservatives took firm control in 2012, Republican legislators immediately passed voter suppression laws, let public schools languish, and gutted environmental regulations, which led to a devastating coal ash spill in 2014.
Their biggest “accomplishment” was passing the notorious anti-transgender “bathroom bill,” which cost the state dearly with boycotts. The state lost billions of dollars in revenue from the NCAA canceling games, to canceled concerts, to shutting down planned corporate expansions, to abandoned projects—even to lost television productions. The Netflix show Outer Banks was supposed to take place in the Outer Banks of North Carolina—but the producers found that even South Carolina was a more tolerant place.
People hated what the GOP was doing, but rather than listen to their changing constituency, North Carolina’s Republican legislators got to work on suppressing their votes instead. They first tried to pass a voting law that an appeals court thankfully struck down, saying it targeted “African Americans with almost surgical precision.” For example, they targeted voter IDs to eliminate the ones most likely to be used by African Americans, and eliminated Sunday as an early voting day, which Black churches would likely have utilized. They then tried to pack the state’s high court—but in a comedy of errors, wound up ensuring Democratic control. Democrats now have a 6-1 advantage on the state’s Supreme Court. This turned out to be a very good thing.
The North Carolina Republican Party tried to run an electoral scam so bad that it made national headlines. Republican operative Thomas Hofeller was a master of secrecy and designed a gerrymander of North Carolina that was so deviously well-crafted that even if the Democrats would have won the majority of votes, the GOP would still have controlled a supermajority of seats. The strategy behind the gerrymander, along with the census tampering, was discovered in documents that Hofeller’s daughter, Stephanie, made public after his death. As a result, the gerrymandered map was struck down in late 2019.
Without the willful sabotage they were counting on, the GOP has been losing bigly in North Carolina. The city of Charlotte, which was to hold the Republican National Convention, elected Vi Lyles, the first African American woman to become mayor. Charlotte now has an African American police chief, fire chief, school board chair, district attorney, and sheriff. The former Charlotte mayor, who happens to also be the former Republican governor, Pat McCrory, let his racist flag fly over the diversity in city leadership. No wonder he’s upset: He signed into law the worst voter suppression law in the nation to keep Blacks from voting, and now that it’s been thrown out, Vi Lyles holds his former seat in Charlotte and Roy Cooper sits in the governor’s mansion. Meanwhile, McCrory hosts a pathetic local radio show that I doubt you’ve heard of.
Counties all across North Carolina that were reliably red are now up for grabs. This is especially true of the “exurbs,” which are counties that surround the suburbs. This means Cabarrus and Union counties, which surround Mecklenburg, and Franklin and Harnett counties, which are close to Wake. This also means NC-08 and NC-09 are both in play this year for the Democrats. Both candidates are also Black women, which must be driving McCrory and his ilk nuts.
To win back the state legislature, Democrats only need to win a handful of seats this November. The heavy lifting was done back in 2018 when several seats were flipped, and there are plenty of toss-ups to choose from. Remember: These races are much cheaper than their national counterparts, so a small donation can go a long way. Turning North Carolina blue this critical year will then go a long way to helping national races for the next decade ... so let’s make it happen!
North Carolina State Senate in play for 2020
All 50 of North Carolina’s state senate seats are up. In 2018, the GOP lost their supermajority in the chamber. Democrats gained six seats, reducing the Republican majority from 35-15 to 29-21.
For 2020, Dems need four seats to get to a tie, and five seats for an outright majority. That’s not a hard lift now that the awful gerrymandered map is gone. There are competitive seats scattered across the state, spanning the suburbs across Fayetteville, Charlotte, Raleigh, and Winston-Salem. With a new, fair map and a blue wave election year, it’s very possible. Help if you can!
These are the seven likeliest seats being targeted for the flip:
NC State Senate Opportunities
District |
Candidate |
Notes |
SD-1 |
Tess Judge |
Tess Judge is a local businesswoman and community leader with a broad scope of public service. Her GOP incumbent opponent, Bob Steinburg, has been arrested twice, once for disorderly conduct and once for assault on his opponent's campaign manager in 2012. He opposes Black churches being active in politics, claiming that white churches don’t do the same. Even his own Republican colleagues have declared Steinburg “unfit for state senate.” The district leans slightly red (R+2); it not only has more Democratic-registered voters, but has a larger number of unaffiliated voters than Republicans. |
SD-7 |
Donna Lake |
Democrat Donna Lake is a retired Air Force colonel, a combat veteran, a nurse, and a healthcare CEO. She is challenging an appointed incumbent named Jim Perry. The district is R+2, but Dems hold a very large edge on registrations. |
SD-11 |
Allen Wellons |
Allen Wellons is a family farm manager, attorney, and small business owner fighting Republican Lisa Barnes. This race has no incumbent and has attracted the big guns, with Barack Obama himself personally endorsing Wellons. Unfortunately, it's also attracted a ton of dark money used to flood residents with negative mailers. The GOP has a slight edge—R+2 with a slight advantage for Democrat registrations. |
SD-18 |
Sarah Crawford |
Sarah Crawford is a community activist serving nonprofits in education and health. The race is open but the district is D+2, the Dems have an edge on registration, and Crawford has raised about 30 times more cash than her GOP opponent. |
SD-24 |
J.D. Wooten |
J.D. Wooten is an attorney and former Air Force engineering officer. His opponent, Amy Galey, is a county commissioner so well-known for refusing to do anything, she got the nickname “Not My Job.” This is an R+4 district, but there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. |
SD-31 |
Terri LeGrand |
Terri LeGrand is an attorney advocating for women, children, and families, in sharp contrast to the GOP incumbent, Joyce Krawiec. Krawiec’s only claim to fame is receiving pounds of lard delivered to her office by angry constituents after she tweeted to protesters at the Women’s March in Washington, D.C.: “If brains were lard, you couldn’t grease a small skillet.” This district skews R+4, with registrations being even. |
SD-39 |
DeAndrea Salvador |
DeAndrea Salvador is a young, nationally known leader in conservation energy who founded the Renewable Energy Transition Initiative (RETI). This race has no incumbent. As for her opponent, Joshua Niday, I’ve never seen a candidate website without a section on the candidate, but that’s how unremarkable he is. EveryDistrict rated this as a likely pickup for Democrats. |
North Carolina State House in play for 2020
All 120 of North Carolina’s state house seats are up. In 2018, the GOP lost their supermajority in the lower chamber, with Democrats gaining nine seats, reducing the Republican majority from 74-46 to 65-55.
For 2020, Dems need six seats to get a majority. The GOP is so terrified of losing that they are currently targeting voter rolls in Mecklenberg and Guilford counties for voter suppression.
These are the 10 likeliest seats being targeted for the flip:
NC STATE HOUSE OPPORTUNITIES
dISTRICT |
CANDIDATE |
nOTES |
hd-9 |
Brian Farkas |
Brian Farkas has an extensive background in public policy, is endorsed by Obama, and has long ties to the community. His GOP opponent is incumbent Perrin Jones. With the elimination of the extreme Republican gerrymander in Pitt County, this seat is the most likely to flip. |
HD-12 |
Virginia Cox-Daugherty |
Dr. Cox-Daugherty is an elected official for her county board of elections. She is running against GOP incumbent Chris Humphrey. This is a majority African American district that should not be controlled by a right-winger. The problem here has been turnout. That may change this election. |
HD-20 |
Adam Ericson |
Adam Ericson is a Wilmington public school teacher running against Ted Davis Jr., a right-wing extremist who rants and fights against sex education, reproductive rights, public schools, and the environment. Ericson has an edge with the new district but is slightly lagging in fundraising. |
HD-22 |
Albert Kirby |
Albert Kirby is a retired professor, former district attorney, county commissioner, and current minister. He is taking on William Brisson as the GOP incumbent. Brisson used to be a Democrat but figured he wanted to be in the majority, so he switched sides in 2017, dropping the number of Democratic seats to only 45 out of 120 seats. (Remember, we only need six this year for a majority!) This district is a “pivot” district that voted for Obama twice, only to go for Trump in 2016. It may pivot back, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Brisson tried to as well. |
HD-45 |
Frances Jackson |
Frances Jackson is a former Hope Mills commissioner. This should be a great pickup opportunity since the rural precincts were taken out of the district, meaning it now leans Democratic (D+1). However, Jackson faces a well-funded and well-known incumbent, John Szoka. |
HD-59 |
Nicole Quick |
One reason the Republican Party is targeting the voter rolls in Guilford County is because the new map makes this district nine points more favorable to the Democrats. It’s still red (R+3), but the problem has been Democratic turnout. This is the only reason the Republican incumbent, Jon Hardister, has overperformed. Nicole Quick is a strong candidate who might turn it around. She is a well-known business leader who also cares for an autistic son, and gives workshops on working with children with autism in classrooms. |
HD-63 |
Ricky Hurtado |
Ricky Hurtado is a University of North Carolina professor. This was the closest district in 2018, with the incumbent, Steve Ross, only winning by 300 votes. The new map has made this district much bluer and Hurtado is a strong candidate, so Dems have an excellent shot this time. |
HD-74 |
Dan Besse |
Dan Besse is a five-term Winston-Salem city councilman in a district that has turned bluer since 2016. Although this district is still gerrymandered, Dems have been overperforming, coming within 3-4 points of victory. The Democratic primary turnout was a massive 29% increase over 2016, and there is no Republican incumbent. His GOP opponent is Wes Schollander. This is a good target. |
HD-82 |
Aimy Steele |
Aimy Steele is a former elementary school principal who almost won in 2018. She now has a more favorable climate with no incumbent and huge, diverse growth in Concord and the surrounding suburbs. The primary also showed a massive Democratic increase of 32% in Cabarrus County over 2016. Things are looking good here. |
HD-83 |
Gail Young |
Gail Young is the Democratic candidate and has spent her career managing budgets in local government. She has been a leader in fighting voter suppression, has a strong campaign team, and a lot of name recognition. Although this is a red district (R+6), Democrats have, like elsewhere in the state, overperformed. Even worse for Republicans? They have a very flaky incumbent. Republican Larry Pittman has compared Abraham Lincoln to Adolf Hitler, called Obama a traitor, and proposed a constitutional amendment to have NC secede from the union. His embarrassments have made this a top-tier race. |
I can’t stress the importance of winning the Tarheel State in 2020 enough. If Biden loses one of the Rust Belt states, then North Carolina could be the tipping-point state for the presidential election, and polls show it’s neck and neck with Trump and Biden. The Senate race, however, has consistently shown Democrat Cal Cunningham holding a lead of between 4-9% over incumbent Thom Tillis.
We already made Virginia a blue trifecta, so let’s do it in North Carolina this year! If there is good turnout at the state level, it will be all that much easier for Biden and Cunningham to win their races.
There are so many races to focus time, attention, and money on this cycle. This is due in no small part to Democrats expanding the map and making battlegrounds in red states. I already wrote about flipping the Arizona legislature this year, and making a dent with Florida’s. Yet if I was advising Joe Biden, I’d tell him to focus on North Carolina. There really isn't another state that has so much riding on so many consequential races this year.
If you want to really help—in a place where your money and possibly even your time would make a critical difference—North Carolina is the state for you, and 2020 is definitely the year.