Another quick one because, you know, GOTV in Georgia. Plus exhaustion. And a wee bit nervous.
Hope Springs from Field PAC led canvasses in 15 different counties, and, outside of the Atlanta Metro area, served as organizational leads (generally meaning that we cut most if not all the turf used there) between the General Election and this weekend. We came into the Early or Advanced Voting phase with very specific goals, goals based upon prior runoffs. Excitement in the electorate, even outside of the Atlanta Media region, was off the charts and Early Voting numbers blew past the goals that were originally set for these counties by the coordinated campaign.
When we realized that this runoff was going to see so much excitement, Early Voting goals were readjusted and used Early Voting in the general election as a guide. For the most part, targets were in the 75-80% area. Three of these counties missed that target ranch (barely), two of which were in Trump-won counties (Lee and Peach).
In general, the Early Vote turnout in these areas outside of the Atlanta Metro region, where the overwhelming amount of attention in the race has been concentrated, is a good sign. Voters outside the capitol region have received about one-seventh of the attention that voters inside (and north) of the Atlanta area have received. One-third of the direct mail. Maybe one-tenth of the post cards. Far, far fewer indications of texts. On the other hand, they have received a lot more attention from the Republican and conservative groups working the state. For example, one voter told us that one day she had received 10 pieces of direct mail from GOP-related groups and 1 piece from the state party. So it's frustrating, and Democratic voters south of the Atlanta/Macon/Savannah line can sometimes feel forgotten.
But they were not disinterested. The media south of that line did not cover the runoff to a great extent, but a large majority of the voters we talked to in this area knew about the race and had a greater interest in it than they would have for a typical statewide runoff.
55% of the volunteers who participated in canvasses south of that imaginary line were under the age of 26, and about half of our canvassers were African-American. They brought their own excitement to this effort. By partnering with local civil rights/civic groups and/or Divine Nine chapters (the latter of which tended to be older than 25), these efforts seemed to be as much about the Senate campaign as empowering their communities. This is the first time in my memory where we were repeatedly asked, "Can I keep my walk sheets?"
And had they been able to input the data, they could have. One of the best practices we learned in the Obama campaign is that ‘super volunteers’ could be entrusted to do additional outreach with their walk sheets. We found it actually did make more of a difference for the volunteer who knocked on a door to follow-up with a phone call, "I knocked on your door, but missed you..." This kind of informed outreach lends credence to the whole ‘I’m your neighbor’ vibe.
I mentioned the Divine Nine chapters because several of them allowed us to match their "membership list" (may not have actually been an official membership list) with the voter file. This allowed peer-to-peer contacts outside of our efforts and I know of specific early vote efforts based upon their work. Every little bit helps.
In prior runoffs, voting in the Black Belt especially has nose-dived. That did not happen this time. We did run into African-American voters who did not trust early voting and pledged to vote on Election Day. And those voters are the focus of our efforts since (in addition to ballot rescue, which will continue until Friday). What is equally interesting, though, is that the Advanced Voting turnout in more Trumpian areas have not responded to the same degree. We are comparing Early Vote turnout in the General with Early Vote turnout in the Runoff. There are 29 counties, all of which Trump won, where this comparison was under 70%. A number of them experienced door-to-door efforts by Americans for Progress and Club for Growth. Hard to see why these 29 counties had that much lower turnout than the rest of the state. Very interesting indeed.
If you would like to support this work in voter mobilization and ballot rescue, please donate to Hope Springs from Field PAC:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization
We appreciate your support!