As most of you are probably aware, nature is expected to put on a light show this evening, until past midnight, in the northern skies, thanks to a powerful solar flare and Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) event that occurred on the sun on Thursday around 11:35 a.m. EDT. The CME is expected to reach earth this evening, creating what is known as a strong G3 geomagnetic storm. The Aurora Borealis, aka, the Northern Lights, is expected to be visible in Canada and the northern US states, perhaps as far south as Pennsylvania, weather and cloud coverage permitting.
The lights are caused by charged particles in the CME, mainly electrons and protons, that interact with earth’s magnetic field and air molecules in the upper atmosphere over the polar region.
If skies are clear where you live, do step out between now and midnight and you might get lucky, as most of have never seen one with our own eyes.
Here is the NOAA Kp index values for tonight, which indicates the relative strength of the geomagnetic storm. Kp Index 7 is expected between 5:00 p.m and 11 p.m. EDT.
Oct 30 Oct 31 Nov 01
00-03UT 2 7 (G3) 3
03-06UT 2 6 (G2) 4
06-09UT 2 5 (G1) 3
09-12UT 1 5 (G1) 3
12-15UT 5 (G1) 4 2
15-18UT 6 (G2) 4 2
18-21UT 6 (G2) 3 2
21-00UT 7 (G3) 3 2
Update from NOAA late Saturday shows a later arrival with peak around 5 a.m to 8 a.m. EDT Sunday morning.
Oct 31 Nov 01 Nov 02
00-03UT 5 (G1) 4 3
03-06UT 5 (G1) 5 (G1) 3
06-09UT 6 (G2) 4 2
09-12UT 7 (G3) 3 2
12-15UT 6 (G2) 3 1
15-18UT 5 (G1) 2 1
18-21UT 5 (G1) 2 1
21-00UT 4 3 2
Sunday morning update — peak around 5 - 8 p.m. EDT Sunday evening.
Oct 31 Nov 01 Nov 02
00-03UT 4 4 3
03-06UT 3 5 (G1) 3
06-09UT 3 4 2
09-12UT 3 3 2
12-15UT 4 3 1
15-18UT 5 (G1) 2 1
18-21UT 6 (G2) 2 1
21-00UT 7 (G3) 3 2
Sunday evening update — the Kp level did not exceed 5 and the NOAA site no longer shows Kp rising 4 in the next few days.
Here are the expected areas where the Northern Lights will be visible tonight —
A visualization of the CME as it travels the 150 million km distance from the sun to earth in about 60 hours -
The Sun
Our Sun has been quite active this week. This imagery was captured by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory between Oct. 25-28 that ended with the X1-class solar flare whose CME will hit us tonight.
Our sun has a periodic 11-year cycle, in which the Sun's activity waxes and wanes, resulting in increase and decrease in sunspots and solar flare activity. The current cycle started in 2020 and will peak around 2026, as shown below.
Status
Quite often, Northern Lights predictions turn out to be inaccurate, as the CME misses or glances by earth. Signs so far are positive for this one!
After a disappointingly weak showing in North America, the geo-storm is picking up intensity around noon EDT. NOAA is still predicting Kp7 around 5-8 p.m. EDT.
Vicarious Pleasures
For those of us who will not get to see tonight’s light show, here are a few images from the Internet, taken by professionals and enthusiasts. Enjoy!
Observations tonight
Epilogue
There is a small probability that the CME will affect GPS and other satellites. We shall see.
How many of you have seen the Northern lights? Please share you experiences and any photographs or videos. And Good Luck with your viewing.
Further Reading and Viewing
- Some spectacular images — www.usatoday.com/…
- CAMERA SETTINGS FOR AURORA PHOTOGRAPHY – HOW TO TAKE GREAT NORTHERN LIGHTS PHOTOS — www.lwpetersen.com/...