We all heard it before. Chicago is the most gang-ridden, murderous place in America [and it’s all Obama’s fault!]. Illinois gun laws do not work. California and Illinois are crime-ridden. Thanks to lax gun laws, Houston homicide rates and crime rates are far lower than the likes of Chicago, New York, Portland, and Los Angeles—
Wait a minute, is that last sentence true? We can find out by looking at the statistics.
2021 HOMICIDE RATES (YTD)
CITY |
# OF HOMICIDES |
RATE PER 100,000 |
AS OF |
NEW YORK |
417 |
4.74 |
11/14 |
LOS ANGELES
|
339 |
8.70 |
11/13 |
CHICAGO |
719 |
26.18 |
11/20 |
HOUSTON |
419 |
18.18 |
11/04 |
PORTLAND |
75 |
11.49 |
11/18 |
None of the cities above are experiencing super-low crime rates, but the fact that Houston has a higher homicide count (and therefore higher per-capita rates) than all the above cities, save for Chicago, is telling. Illinois does have more laws pertaining to gun safety, but note that driving from Chicago’s Loop to Indiana (a state with less stringent gun laws) is about the same as driving from downtown Houston to Spring or Cypress, conservative suburbs that are noticeably supportive of lax gun laws.
Although Houston can boast having lower homicide rates than Chicago, the violent crime rate is however higher in Houston, thanks to the higher amount of incidents pertaining to robbery, of which many are done armed, and aggravated assault. In 2020, Houston had a violent crime rate of 1,279 per 100,000 people, whereas Chicago had a rate of 968 per 100,000. Furthermore, only five cities (with a population of at least 25,000) bested Houston’s 2020 robbery rate of 373.2 per 100,000; even Chicago’s robbery rate is lower, with a rate of 292.1 per 100,000. And when it comes to violent crime rates in metropolitan areas, the Houston area has one of the highest violent crime rates among metropolitan areas of all sizes, at 632 per 100,000 people; Chicagoland did not even crack the Top 50.
Aside from homicide and robbery, the Houston area has a high overall gun death rate when compared to metros that are similar in size or larger. According to 2019 CDC data, Harris County, Texas (Houston) and Cook County, Illinois (Chicago) have comparable gun death rates (per 100,000) of 13.75 and 13.86, respectively. But, there are less gun deaths in the Chicago suburbs compared to the Houston suburbs.
GUN DEATHS BY COUNTY (PER 2019 CDC DATA)
COUNTY |
# OF GUN DEATHS |
PER 100,000 |
DUPAGE, IL |
34 |
3.68 |
KANE, IL |
33 |
6.20 |
LAKE, IL |
29 |
4.16 |
WILL, IL |
62 |
8.98 |
BRAZORIA, TX |
42 |
11.22 |
FORT BEND, TX |
78 |
9.61 |
GALVESTON, TX |
46 |
13.44 |
MONTGOMERY, TX |
75 |
12.35 |
The four aforementioned counties of Illinois have almost the same amount of gun deaths as Fort Bend and Montgomery combined, despite the fact that the Illinois counties have roughly the same population as the Chicago city limits and about twice the combined population of Fort Bend and Montgomery. And that is not mentioning the fact that Harris County (648) has just less than thrice the amount of gun deaths as New York City (224) and about the same amount as Los Angeles County (670), a county with more than twice the population of Harris.
Are there other factors beside gun laws? Of course! Especially when it comes to economic conditions. Both Houston and Chicago are facing unemployment rates that are higher than the national average. Houston is lagging behind other metro areas when it comes to adoption of either a high-tech or green economy, making Big Oil still a major influence in the local economy. Also, the presence of hospitals and the social safety net (or lack thereof) are substantial factors in influencing crime rates.
But there is little evidence, if any, that loosening gun laws would lead to a reduction of crime rates (or for criminals to fear the general citizenry, for that matter). Permitless carry, which went to effect in September, hasn’t led to reductions in crime rate or even a noticeable bump in “justifiable homicides”; in fact, Houston experienced roughly 60 murders last October. Road rage shootings have yet to relent in Houston. Also, the “right to bear arms” hasn’t led to Houston having a low property crime rate.
It would be a shame for everyone if Dan Crenshaw, Ted Cruz, and Greg Abbott are held accountable for the high violent crime in Houston, especially if the likes of Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Kamala Harris, and Joe Biden are pushing policies that promote crime, economic misery, oppression, and racism! /s