Today I am going to be looking at four Texas house districts in the Houston area: HD 133, HD 134, and HD 148. The former district is a Republican held district, while the latter two are Dem held districts.
TX HD 133
TX HD 133 is located in the western part of the Houston area. Under the existing boundaries, HD 133 has leaned Republican but is trending towards the Democrats, at least at the statewide/presidential level, having gone from supporting Mitt Romney by nearly 38 points to supporting Donald Trump by about 13.5 points in 2016 and by a narrower 4-point margin in 2020. It should be noted that Joe Biden also outran Dem Beto O’Rourke (2018 U.S. Senate race) in the district by over 5 points, despite underperforming him statewide. Down-ballot, the district has been quite a bit redder, with Republican incumbent Jim Murphy winning reelection by a fairly large 16-point margin in both 2018 and 2020. Interestingly, unlike a lot of other Republican held TX house districts, redistricting has actually made HD 133 slightly bluer for 2022, with some of the Republican leaning areas in the eastern part of the district being removed and added to the neighboring HD 138 as means of shoring that district up for the GOP. Under the new boundaries, Trump’s 2020 margin of victory in HD 133 shrinks to just under 2-points, though again, the district is quite a bit redder down-ballot, as Dem M.J. Hegar would have lost the new district by nearly 12 points in the 2020 U.S. Senate Race. The seat is also open this cycle, as Murphy isn’t running for reelection, which in theory should be a plus for Democrats (since it eliminates the advantage of incumbency for the Republicans). However, the Democrats don’t seem to have a serious candidate for 2022, as Mohamad Maarouf, the sole Dem running, filed for the seat just hours before the deadline and doesn’t yet appear to have a campaign website or any candidate-related social media. There are five candidates running for the seat on the Republican side: Greg Travis (who had been serving on the Houston City Council until now), Bert Keller (who appears to have served on the Houston City Council decades ago), Shelly Barineau, Mano Deayala, and Will Franklin. I’m classifying the district as Likely Republican. Even with the lack of a credible Dem candidate, the district is still worth keeping an eye on due to the favorable trends (for Dems) and the lack of a Republican incumbent.
TX HD 134
TX HD 134 is located directly east of the previously covered HD 133. HD 134 swung heavily toward the Democrats in 2016, with Hillary Clinton carrying it by about 15 points, after Romney had carried it by a similar margin four years earlier, making it the only seat in the TX house that supported both of them by double-digits. Given how well Clinton did here and the favorable trends for Dems, the district was seen by some as one of the Democrats’ best pick-up opportunities for 2018. While the Democrats ended up performing very well here at the top of the ticket in 2018, with Beto carrying the district by over 21 points, Republican incumbent Sarah Davis managed to hold on to the seat, winning by about 6 points, most likely due to her somewhat socially moderate views (she is pro-choice) and weak Democrat opponent. However, the Dems were more successful here in 2020, as Dem Ann Johnson was able to flip the seat, defeating Davis by just under 5 points, though she still considerably underperformed Biden, who outran Beto in the district by about a percentage point. For 2022, the district has been redrawn to be a few points bluer, as Biden’s margin now expands to about 26 points under the new boundaries. (The district now extends a bit further east with some of the southern and western portions being taken out.) However, like the existing HD 134, the new district is redder down-ballot, as MJ Hegar would have carried it by a considerably narrower 15-point margin. Given Biden’s comfortable margin in the district and the slightly more favorable boundaries (for Dems), Johnson should be heavily favored this cycle, especially considering that she has the advantage of incumbency this time around (and isn’t running against Davis). However, with 2022 shaping up to be highly favorable for the GOP, the district still has the potential to be competitive, given down-ballot and historical trends. (Under the new boundaries, Romney still would have carried the district by over 10 points.) Therefore, I’m classifying the district as Likely Democrat. At least two Republicans are running for the seat: Ryan McConico, who previously ran in TX HD 148, and A.A. Dominguez. (Note: for those who are interested, I previously wrote a DK post solely on HD 134 in March of this year, before the redistricting plans were announced.)
TX HD 148
TX HD 148 is located in the central Houston area, just north of HD 134. Under the existing boundaries, HD 148 has been reliably blue, with Biden and Clinton both carrying the district by about 33 points, and state house Dems winning it by double digits. However, redistricting has made the district about roughly 15 points redder for 2022, with a lot of the deep blue areas covering the core of Houston being removed and more Republican-leaning areas (north of the district’s current border) added in. Under the new boundaries, Biden and Clinton would have now carried the district by a considerably narrower (though still comfortable) 18-point margin. In addition, Penny Morales Shaw, the current Dem incumbent, underperformed Biden by roughly 6 points in 2020 under the existing boundaries, though she wasn’t an incumbent then, so the district might have been marginally competitive (in 2020) had the new boundaries been in place. Therefore, the district definitely warrants notice for 2022 (given that the environment is expected to be more favorable towards the GOP), though Shaw should be favored somewhat, given that the district is still decently Democratic leaning. I’m classifying the district as Likely Democrat. One Republican is running for the seat, Kay Smith, who previously ran in 2016 for a different TX house seat and in 2020 for a Harris County Board-of-Trustees position, losing the Republican primary in both cases (and with under 30% of vote). In addition, it should be noted that the district is majority Hispanic (and over 80% non-Anglo), so Smith, who is white, is probably a weaker candidate than the previous Republican nominee, who was Hispanic.
Thanks to Texas Legislative Council (for the statewide/presidential election results under the new boundaries, as well as the 2020 statewide/pres results under the existing boundaries), Daily Kos Elections (for the remaining statewide/pres results under the existing boundaries), New York Times (for precinct-level data), Texas Secretary of State website (for 2022 candidate list).