The final poll before the election showed Pat Ryan’s R opponent, Marc Molinaro, leading by eight (8) points:
Pat Ryan won by two points.
That’s a ten point swing toward the Democrat from the final poll to the actual result.
Perhaps not a KS “earthquake,” but enough to at least push the MSM away from “Dems in Disarray” to calling it a shock victory in a bellweather election for a couple of days.
This is not a brag. Or even a humble brag. And it’s not about NY-19. It’s about the entire country. (Pat Ryan’s running now in NY-18. Don’t ask.)
On August 8, I made a conditional prediction: That we had a”chance” IF we “make it happen:”
There are phone banks, text banks and if you’re in the District or near, door knocking, yard-signing and many other opportunities.
There are not many better uses of your time the next two weeks than being involved in this special election, through donating or volunteering.
There was no big news in the two weeks before August 23 — Dobbs had happened already. Lindsay Graham had not yet made his “let’s pass a national ban” pitch yet. Even NY voter registration for the primary had closed a few weeks earlier, on July 29, 2022, so it wasn’t a registration bump (at least not in the last two weeks).
What occurred was we did what it took to make it happen — phone banks, text banks and if you’re near, door knocking, yard-signing, donating, social media mongering.
You know the drill. It’s here:
DAILY KOS GET OUT THE VOTE
And these other opportunities:
1. "Voter registration closes in Pennsylvania in FIVE DAYS, on October 24. Please check your registration or register to vote ASAP. TurboVote makes it easy for you.
2. Fill out or circulate this form from TurnUp.US to receive info on conducting a HS or college registration drive — still possible in some states.
3. Commit to Vote with Civic Influencers’ Motivate.US App
Kos and Kerry reminded us on today’s The Brief that GOTV can result in a 2-3 point bump. Plus the pollsters can’t measure registration bumps or how young voter activism can screw up “likely voter” models.
But most importantly:
The Only Thing we have to Fear is Demoralization Itself.
As “The Old Philosopher,” Eddie Lawrence would say: