This candidate was given no chance by most everyone outside of his campaign. Even when he released internal polling, I scoffed at the fact that this could be a race. Sen. Chuck Grassley was invincible, I convinced myself. The close polls kept coming, and eventually one of the best polls in the business finds this a possibly close race. I head back to Iowa to profile Admiral Mike Franken, our candidate for Iowa Senate!
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Admiral Mike Franken for IA-SEN!
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Candidate Background
Admiral Mike Franken, like so many in the Navy, sought to serve his country and also get a better education. He rose through the ranks and eventually became an admiral and policy advisor to presidents of both political parties.
- His upbringing included working in the shop his parents owned, as well as working in a slaughterhouse in order to help make ends meet. He would graduate from the University of Nebraska with a degree in engineering on a Navy scholarship.
- He was deployed to many of the world’s hotspots while in the Navy, and rose to be the first commander of the USS Winston Churchill. He then became a policy advisor to GW Bush and Barrack Obama on geopolitical and naval affairs.
- As is typical with career officers, Franken moved around frequently, which is tough with a daughter with disabilities. This taught him the importance of building a community and of health care in every day life.
Signature Issues
Mike Franken is likely going to be one of the more conservative Democrats if he pulls off the upset and wins a seat in the Senate. This is because Iowa is now a state that leans GQP, but I suspect he will also have a principled streak in him as well.
Agriculture: Farming is a way of life in Iowa, and naturally Franken has to hit the right notes on this issue. He would push back on farm consolidation and give more opportunities for rural youth that often leave the state. He would also try to fight back against the agribusiness monopolies that are strangling the food supply chains and requiring monoculture in farming.
Defending Democracy: Whether it is at home or abroad, Franken has spent his life defending democracies and fighting against autocratic regimes. He was aghast on 1/6 and notes that Grassley said he would be in charge of the Senate that day instead of Pence. He would also strengthen the right to vote and tackle the dark money problem in politics.
Health Care and Abortion: Franken is pro-choice, and he would blow up the filibuster to codify Roe into law. He knows that most Iowans are one medical bill away from destitution and would work on lowering costs, which is why he is a single payer advocate. He would make sure everyone has the same high-quality health care he enjoyed as an admiral.
Elections History
Recent Elections —
2020 President: TFG (R-inc) 53.1%, Joe Biden (D) 44.9%
2016 Senate: Chuck Grassley (R-inc) 60.1%, Patty Judge (D) 35.7%
2022 PVI: R+6
2022 Race Rating: Likely Republican
Can you believe that Sen. Chuck Grassley has been running for political office since 1959? I didn’t believe that at first either when I heard it. Grassley is an institution in Iowa, having served in the House of Representatives since his first election in 1974 and in the Senate since 1980. Obviously, he has never lost an election, and most of those elections weren’t even close.
This race is lining up to be the closest race of his career, other than his initial race to win the Senate seat he has held for over 40 years now. Grassley used to be more moderate and less partisan in nature, as he had a good working relationship with Sen. Tom Harkin until the latter retired in 2014. However, starting in the Obama era, he became much more of a partisan member of the GQP and his bipartisan veneer started to crack.
There is something wrong about an 89 year old still being in the halls of Congress. If that is ageist of me, I apologize for my sin. Sen. Chuck Grassley is the poster child for term limits being necessary, as I think he is now past his sell-by date. Admiral Mike Franken is no spring chicken himself, but he is at least a generation younger than the incumbent Senator.
Political Tour of the State
Iowa is a state that is less educated, very white, and highly evangelical. There is a reason TFG won the state easily twice. It is why I am skeptical of the chances of Franken, but there is a path to victory still. He has to run up the score in certain counties while limiting his losses elsewhere.
Here’s where this race will be won in Iowa.
- Des Moines Metro Area: This is the biggest city in the state, and it is vital that Franken run up the score here as high as possible. He needs to greatly win Polk County, and he needs to flip Dallas County to the west. Even then, he needs a lot to go right below to eke out a win.
- University Counties: Johnson County is home to the University of Iowa. Story County is home to Iowa State University. Both counties need to turn out like never before if Franken is to win this state. If the Dobbs decision and cancelling student debt doesn’t turn out the student vote, Franken has no chance of victory.
- Waterloo and Cedar Rapids: These cities in northeastern Iowa are critical to the success of Franken. He has to turn back the clock and win both cities by Obama margins or better to have a chance of victory. Hopefully, he can win enough votes here to make up for other areas.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
- Quad Cities and Mississippi River Counties: The Quad Cities still lean Democratic, but barely. TFG won Dubuque, Clinton, and Muscatine Counties in 2020. Franken needs to at least get to 50-50 in each of the latter counties to have a chance, and needs a better margin out of the Quad Cities to boot. These areas voted for Obama twice, so it is possible to win them.
- Council Bluffs and Sioux City: These cities on the western border are much more conservative than out east, and it is important for Franken to squeeze every last vote out of them. He won’t win these counties, but limiting the damage they cause is important to his campaign.
- Farm Country: The rest of the state has trended HARD to the right since Obama left office. Franken needs to limit the damage the rural counties do to his vote totals. I don’t know how he could do it, but he needs to win over enough farmers in order to win the state.
Activism — Help How You Can!
Iowa is thankfully a cheap state to run ads in. Admiral Mike Franken raised $2.79 MILLION in the 2nd quarter, and topped that off with another $3.59 MILLION in the 3rd quarter. That should be sufficient for his needs, as he is getting ZERO outside help. He still had $1.1 MILLION at the end of June, and he has $1.34 MILLION still after September ended.
Sen. Chuck Grassley is still raising enough money to defend himself, although he definitely isn’t raising significant cash. He raised $1.26 MILLION for the 2nd quarter, and another $1.88 MILLION for the 3rd quarter. He was sitting on $4 MILLION after June, and he still has $3.9 MILLION after September. It is likely dark money will stay away from this race.
DONATE TO MIKE FRANKEN HERE
What Franken needs now are volunteers ready and willing to persuade the undecided voters that he is the better candidate for Iowa. This can be done through canvassing, phone/text banking, and seeing who has already voted. In a state like Iowa where we are behind, volunteers are what can make up the gap in enthusiasm and by activating every voter possible. Please sign up below to help make this upset happen!
VOLUNTEER FOR HIS CAMPAIGN HERE
In terms of social media, I was surprised by how many people followed Franken on Twitter. He has 47.9k followers, which is great for a campaign that supposedly has no chance of winning. He is fairly prolific, and especially so when I made the decision to write about this race a week before this was published. Here is the poll that shocked the political world…
Franken also has accounts on Facebook and Instagram, just like nearly every other politician. He also has a YouTube channel for his appearances and ads. His latest ad hitting on abortion is below.
As excited as I was when the high quality poll dropped, I need to temper expectations now in the conclusion. Even the best polls can be in error, and this poll does not mean that Adm. Mike Franken will win. In fact, the fact that the alphabet organizations and dark money have stayed out of the race shows that this poll may be an outlier. Still, it is better to mobilize resources and write about this race than to ignore the red flashing light saying this is possibly competitive! I expect Grassley to win by about 53-47 or a little better than that, which is amazing.
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Admiral Mike Franken for IA-SEN!
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