[Updated to provide handy links to end-of-year tax deductible young voter registration groups}
The Civics Center (HS Students)
Civic Influencers (College Students)
TurnUp.US (Youth generally)
***
On October 17, 2022, I sat down at my computer, opened “Today’s Paper” in the New York Times, and saw the headline: Republicans Gain Edge as Voters Worry About Economy, Times/Siena Poll Finds.. I scrolled down and clicked on the Sports Section, in my continuing defense of my delicate pre-election psyche.
But this poll and others helped create the phony “Red Wave” narrative that had actual consequences for the election results. The Times sort of comes clean in an article today, The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative.
The 2022 election narrative had a roller coaster shape. Early in the year it was “Dems Doomed,” mostly because of media laziness in assuming all off-year elections go to the “out” party, inflation and Biden’s polling. But then Dobbs came down, and the Kansas referendum and NY-19 Special showed the power of Dobbs backlash, so by September, there was a shift from “Red Wave” to “maybe not.” Then, the Times/Siena Poll and a slew of others brought the Red Wave narrative back from the dead, creating rampant Democratic agita and skewing campaign strategy until the election.
Some of us smelled a rat. On October 19, two days after the Times/Siena Poll, I wrote here: Polls Got Ya Down?, noting Democrat Pat Ryan won by two points after the final pre-election poll showed him trailing by 8:*
That’s a ten point swing toward the Democrat from the final poll to the actual result.
Perhaps not a KS “earthquake,” but enough to at least push the MSM away from “Dems in Disarray” to calling it a shock victory in a bellweather election for a couple of days.
Also making this point the same day were Markos and Kerry on the Daily Kos podcast, The Brief, with Don’t stress out about all of these polls! What does all of this polling say about what is actually going to happen this November?
Our point was actual election results are more accurate than polls. And we were right. But the Times et al kept scare-mongering with headlines like Democrats’ Feared Red October Has Arrived, also on October 19. Today’s Times story finally provides a bit of accountability, though it fails to mention its own and other media’s failure to recognize the predictive importance of Kansas and NY-19.
The Times article does mention the two accurate Democratic forecasters, Simon Rosenberg and Tom Bonier, who debunked a Red Wave narrative throughout the fall and were mocked for it by the MSM, which now includes Nate Silver. Silver accused Rosenberg of taking “Hopium,” even though Silver included in his polling average two polls by teenagers wrongly showing big R swings or leads in key states. [I’m old enough on Daily Kos to remember 2008, when Nate was a hero here because his accurate predictions (as “Poblano”) of Obama winning provided accurate “Hopium” for us that year. See Doctor Who’s post-election story here, 538.com - What's Up With Poblano (Nate Silver)?, analyzing how Nate went wrong.]
The Times story shows how the phony polls and Red Wave narrative influenced spending, diverting resources from battleground races in, e.g., Wisconsin, to Washington because polls showed Patty Murray, who won by 15 in a tight race. Meanwhile, in Wisconsin, D. Mandela Barnes was swamped by $26.4 million in outside funding, and lost by 26,000. Also, too, NC-Senate.
I have a love-hate relationship with the Times. Despite its many flaws, I just cain’t quit it. And they still haven’t admitted any responsibility for their egregious 2016 wall-to-wall “her emails” coverage while ignoring gigantic elephants like, oh let’s say TRUMP’S MISSING TAX RETURNS (should be retroactively humiliating in light of the returns release yesterday) rather than just throwing up their hands when he stonewalled. This is why I did the book proposal: "No Clear Link: How the NY Times Helped Elect Trump in 2016." With Table of Contents. Please contact me if you want to be a publisher or co-author.
But it is good to see a Mea Culpa once in a while.
***
*Would I be obnoxious if I said this is a reason to recommend more of my diaries? For example, I thought this one from last night: Donald Trump's Other "Quickie" was pretty good, but it was algorithm-ed to obscurity because its 32 recs were apparently not accumulated quickly enough. Same with Bari Weiss: "Liberals Caused Rushdie Attack." Also Bari: "My Boss Elon just Fatwah-ed Fauci" on December 13.