As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approaches the one-month mark, day to day events are still unpredictable, but the ultimate outcome is clear — Russia has lost. The combination of hard resistance from the Ukrainian military, refusal to accept Russian domination by the Ukrainian people, and the world uniting to both provide defensive weapons to Ukraine and punish Vladimir Putin for starting this brutal war of aggression, makes it impossible for Russia to come out of this on top. The cost on every level: economic, diplomatic, military, leaves Russia hugely diminished from it’s standing on the day before the tanks rolled in. No matter what form the end of the invasion takes, for Russia it has been an absolute disaster whose effects will impoverish and isolate the country for decades.
There is really only one possible place that Putin can turn for help: China. For decades, Russia and China have enjoyed what has been described as an “unlimited partnership,” but which is more in the nature of a unofficial recognition of mutual enemies.
It’s been obvious from the beginning of the invasion that Russia wanted China’s assistance, but China has been cool to requests. That included abstaining in a UN Security Council vote speaking out against Russia’s invasion, and on a vote in the General Assembly. On Thursday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was reportedly on a Russian plane headed to a meeting in Beijing, when the plane suddenly flipped around and headed back to Moscow. Just the idea that Russia had requested help from China generated a sharp decline for Chinese stocks.
On the other hand, as President Biden prepared to talk to Chinese authoritarian party leader Xi Jinping on Friday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying tweeted that the U.S. was “on the wrong side of history” and accused the U.S. of provoking Russia into attacking Ukraine. Hua went on to complain about the “expansion of NATO.” Both U.S. and European officials have indicated intelligence pointing to China possibly involving itself in the war on behalf of Russia, but no details have been provided about what form that intervention might take.
It’s hard to see how any steps to support Russia could benefit China at this point, but China may judge things differently. Allowing its “partner” to completely fail, militarily or financially, may be considered harmful to China’s ability to form alliances. There are also indications that China has been caught off guard both by Russia’s invasion, and by the performance of their military. These intelligence failings may have China seeking to test some of their own hardware in the field, or they may simply act to prop up Vladimir Putin financially, which could prolong the war. China may find an advantage in simply keeping things boiling and watching Russia and NATO drain resources into the conflict.
The call between Biden and Xi is ongoing as this was being written. Updates will be provided when the White House provides details of the call.
Friday, Mar 18, 2022 · 2:59:26 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Another high ranking Russian officer taken out in Ukraine. In 2014, Russia agreed to allow Ukrainian soldiers near the occupied Ukrainian town of Ilovaisk to withdraw from the area. As they were forming up to leave, Russia attacked. Of about 600 Ukrainian soldiers, only 42 made it out of the area alive. Over 100 Ukrainian survivors were captured by Russian forces, who announced they would be used as forced laborers to rebuild infrastructure destroyed in the invasion.
This is — make that was — the guy supposedly in charge of that action.
Friday, Mar 18, 2022 · 3:11:22 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Chinese state media has posted some statements supposedly from the conversation between President Biden and party leader Xi. These include calls for the United States and China to jointly "shoulder international responsibilities." Xi reportedly said that the war in Ukraine was something China did not want, and that "peace and security are the most valued treasures of the international community."
Nothing in the reported text looks to be a direct criticism of Putin, or a declaration of how China will act over the next few days. Still waiting for the White House brief.
Friday, Mar 18, 2022 · 3:18:09 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
It’s been noticed since the beginning of the invasion that Russian forces don’t seem to be equipped with night vision equipment. As a result, they’ve engaged in limited movements at night, with Russian actions being mostly restricted to bombing by planes and missiles.
However, the drones used by Ukrainians in attacking Russian armor have cameras that see perfectly well in the darkness.
Friday, Mar 18, 2022 · 4:21:18 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
The BBC went to Putin’s Trump-style rally on Friday. While the images on state TV may show the banners waving and people cheering, the truth — even for the people in the stands — is quite different.
One man, who works in the Moscow metro, told us that he and other employees had been forced to attend the rally. "I'll be here for a while and then I'll leave… I think most people here don't support the war. I don't," he said.
Friday, Mar 18, 2022 · 4:23:28 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Oil prices moved back above $100 / barrel as stories spread that Russia wasn’t actually interested in reaching an agreement to end the war, but was only stringing Ukraine along as it continued to reduce cities to rubble.
Friday, Mar 18, 2022 · 4:26:45 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Mariupol was a major site for the manufacture of steel and for various chemicals, including fertilizer. It’s not clear what this particular factory produced, but bombing such as this could easily release hazardous chemicals — bombing such as this could be intended to release hazardous chemicals.
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