We know that Ukraine has pushed Russian forces away from Mykolaiv in Southern Ukraine, and halted any hope Russia has of capturing the grand city of Odesa anytime soon. We also have seen confirmed that they’ve pushed out to Posad-Pokrovske, half the distance from Mykolaiv to Kherson, the largest Ukrainian city currently under Russian control. And that’s where things get murky. Because either Ukraine has pushed east and has opened up a 2-prong approach into Kherson, or all they’ve managed to do is create a little breathing room around Mykolaiv. These two maps (here and here) were released around the same time, both claiming to be based on reports from Ukraine’s general staff. The first one shows Ukrainian control of the village of Snihurivka, east of Mykolaiv, as well as that smattering of villages in between.
The second one still gives Russia control of that territory:
Both maps come from thus-far reputable and fair sources (though pro-Ukraine), but much depends on how those individuals shift through conflicting and confusing information to try and suss out the reality on the ground.
Obviously, we hope the first map is correct, but we must guard against confirmation bias, and make sure that we don’t consider something “confirmed” until there’s corroborating evidence. We had video of Ukrainian forces in Posad-Pokrovske, which was geolocated and affirmed by multiple OSINT (open source intelligence) sources, and then confirmed by Ukraine general staff. Here, there’s just … confusion.
Same thing northwest of Kyiv, where Ukraine has been on the move. Russia, unable to attack, is now digging in for dear life. But how effective, exactly, is that Ukrainian assault? At least one report making the rounds on Twitter claiming that Ukraine is moving as far north as Poliske, on the Belarus border.
I dug in, and found the most recent report report from Ukraine’s general staff:
There were no significant changes in the situation in the Volyn region. [Emphasis mine.]
In the Polissya direction, separate units of the occupiers are defending the settlements of Poliske, Kropyvnya, Zakharivka, Oliva, Zhovtneve, Ozershchyna, Lypivka, Kopyliv, Motyzhyn, Buzova, Horenychi, Bucha, and Demydiv.
Oh, and reading through that update:
In the South Buh direction, the enemy is operating in the settlements of Pravdine, Petrovske, Novohryhorivka, Novomykolaivka, Chervone, Greyhove, Mykhailo-Larine, Ingulka, Hrystoforivka, Maryanivka, Novooleksandrivka, Partizanske, Snihurivka, Krylinka, Kalynivka, Vylochu, Vyloka It does not conduct active offensive operations, regroups, deploys reserves, and replenishes ammunition.
Could the situation have changed in the last seven hours since that report was posted? Of course! But as of now, there’s no confirmation. So remember, in the fog of war, be skeptical of new information, no matter how much you might want it to be true, until it can be properly confirmed by multiple sources.
Saturday, Mar 19, 2022 · 7:26:25 PM +00:00
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Mark Sumner
A good primer on why Russia’s Air Force has failed to secure the air space over Ukraine and still can’t engage in the kind of unlimited day or night operations that would allow them to protect both armor and infantry units on the ground. In particular, contained a good discussion of the importance of SEAD missions (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses ) and how, while the U.S. and NATO have specialty units who spend hundreds of hours each year training for this specific task, Russia … doesn’t. Russian pilots not only get far less training overall, they get essentially no training in this vital part of a combined air-land-sea force.
Also interesting in this video — discover what the letters on the bottom of the U.S. Air Force “Wild Weasels” patch actually mean.
Saturday, Mar 19, 2022 · 7:53:55 PM +00:00
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Mark Sumner
That fog of war doesn’t just extend to the battlefield. This is an absolutely bizarre action if true. Following a siege right out of medieval history, has Russia moved back to the Bronze Age to take the prisoners from a sacked city away into captivity?
Take this with a grain of salt, and also a big dose of WTF.
Saturday, Mar 19, 2022 · 8:28:42 PM +00:00
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Mark Sumner
These are pretty elaborate entrenchments. Without a location, it’s not clear if these are related to the earlier Russian digging NW of Kyiv, but more details on this is likely forthcoming. That Russia is no longer occupying these positions, and they’re being apparently filmed by Ukrainian forces, is a fairly good sign on which way Russian troops when leaving this location.