Given recent analysis and speculation that if Roe falls, Obergefell v. Hodges may follow, it’s especially interesting to check in and see where the general public sits in terms of same-sex marriage. Given that it’s been the law of the land, one might hope that opposition has fizzled to zero, but according to recent polling from Gallup, that’s not the case.
In fact, while 71% of respondents said they support same-sex marriage, that means more than a quarter of respondents don’t. On the bright side, that number looks a lot better than it did a few decades ago; when Gallup polled about same-sex marriage in the late ‘90s, just 27% of folks supported legalization. Now we’re technically at a record high, up from 70% in 2021. Who still isn’t behind same-sex marriage? According to this data, it’s mostly people who regularly go to church once a week.
But we can’t think about this data only in terms of helping people come around to equality—it’s also an indicator of how the barrage of anti-trans legislation of today may look tomorrow.
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As some background, this polling is part of Gallup’s yearly Values and Beliefs report which was done over the phone between May 2 and 22. Polling included just over 1,000 American adults over the age of 18. The margin of sampling error is 4% and there is a 95% confidence interval.
40% of folks who say they go to church on a weekly basis are in favor of same-sex marriage and 58% are opposed to it. That’s about the same number of folks who have supported it over the last several years. On the flip, American respondents who rarely or never go to church have supported same-sex marriage going back to the early 2000s, per Gallup, coming in now at 82%.
Notably, the majority of Protestants now support same-sex marriage, and have since 2017, when they reached 55%. Most Catholics have supported same-sex marriage since 2011.
But of course, this data isn’t about just marriage. It’s also about admitting that the Republican anti-trans agenda is no different than the Republican anti-marriage agenda of decades past. There were points when conservatives at all levels of office were hammering down hard to stop LGBTQ+ people from gaining legal recognition of their unions and achieving even a step toward equality. This topic was covered round the clock in the media thanks to conservative fearmongering about the sanctity of marriage.
And now? Yes, some people are still hateful. Yes, same-sex marriage still makes some folks uncomfortable. Yes, people still discriminate against same-sex couples. But the legal protections are a hugely significant gain and should we lose Obergefell, it’ll be an incredible and terrifying loss.
There is something to be said for the impact of ordinary, normal life. I don’t think anyone is owed the comfort of seeing marginalized folks assimilate or “blend” into one’s view of a “normal” life, but I do think the gradual drop into anti-LGBTQ+ hysteria, in addition to media portrayals, more openly LGBTQ+ people in public office, and the backing of the government, has helped people come out and live more safely. I also think it’s latently shamed (many) conservatives into stopping.
Instead, though, they’ve now launched on trans folks. It’s the same line of attack via dehumanization and othering. And it continues to scare me that even well-intentioned Democrats and moderates are humoring.
I have no doubt we’ll look back on anti-trans agendas the same way a few decades into the future. It’s embarrassing and almost surreal to see the lengths people went to in order to dance around giving people equal rights and protections on the federal level. Trans people, including trans youth, deserve nothing less than safe, equal protection, and access to life-saving health care, education, and autonomy.
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