Friday was the last day for candidates to file to run for office in Kentucky this year, and former Republican Gov. Matt Bevin spent the day trolling the political world about his plans before finally passing on a rematch against Democratic incumbent Andy Beshear. Bevin, who famously launched his successful 2015 campaign on the last day possible, kept everyone guessing for months if he’d do the same thing and enter the crowded May 16 primary.
The former governor, to the frustration of Republicans who remember his chaotic four years in office, narrow 2019 defeat, and controversial final pardons, began Friday with some cryptic tweets implying he’d try again. Bevin then announced an afternoon press conference at the state Capitol, the same building where filing was taking place in the secretary of state’s office, after which he’d be “proceeding down the hall.”
With about an hour to go before the deadline Bevin delivered a 20-minute speech that appeared to be his campaign kickoff. However, the Republican instead took the hall that led out of the building, got into a van, and drove away―all without actually saying that he wasn’t going to run. It was only at 4 PM local time that the secretary of state’s office door closed and it became 100% clear that Bevin wouldn’t be coming back, though one person joked, “Bevin’s coming in the window!”
So, who is running in the Republican primary for governor? Twelve contenders, ended up filing, and the notable names are:
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State Attorney General Daniel Cameron
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former Ambassador to the United Nations Kelly Craft
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State Auditor Mike Harmon
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Somerset Mayor Alan Keck
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State Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles
While there was some speculation over the preceding weeks that Papa John's founder John Schnatter or another Republican could get in late, there were no late surprises in the end. It’s far too early to designate a frontrunner for this primary, where it takes a simple plurality to win, especially since no one has released any polling here in months.
However, both Cameron and Craft have some big advantages. The attorney general, who would be Kentucky’s first Black governor, has an endorsement from Donald Trump; Cameron is also close to his former boss, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Craft and her husband, coal billionaire Joe Craft, have together been some of the GOP's most influential donors, and she outraised all of her intra-party rivals during the final quarter of 2022 without doing any major self-funding. Craft has also spent considerably more than her opponents, and she has the personal wealth to throw down more.
Quarles, for his part, finished last year with the largest war chest in the race, though he brought in little during the last quarter. Keck, for his part, leads a small community of 12,000 people in heavily conservative southern Kentucky, and this appears to be the first time he’s sought higher office.
Harmon, finally, has announced all the way back in July of 2021, but he’s been a terrible fundraiser throughout his long campaign. Harmon last quarter brought in just about $3,000, which is about as much as another rival, Republican-turned independent-turned Republican Eric Deters, took in. Deters, a suspended attorney who was charged in October with menacing behavior towards his nephew, has pledged to self-fund over $1 million, but he’s thrown down just $70,000 so far.
Beshear, who is Kentucky’s only Democratic statewide elected official, will be in for a tough fight no matter what in a state that Trump took 62-36. We haven’t seen any surveys testing him against any of these Republicans, though a September poll from the Democratic firm Garin-Hart-Yang showed him with a strong 62-36 approval rating. Beshear also finished last year with $4.7 million on-hand, which was considerably more than any of his opponents had available.