Another milestone.
A top Ukrainian commander has claimed that Russia’s biggest offensive in months – involving tanks, thousands of soldiers and armoured vehicles in an attack on the eastern Ukrainian town of Avdiivka – is failing, as he admitted Kyiv’s own attempts to advance in the south were proving “difficult”.
Russian forces have pummelled the town over the past week, a key bulge surrounded by Russian-held territory on the eastern Donbas front. It is one of the largest assaults by Moscow since last year’s full-scale invasion and comes at a time when Ukraine’s counteroffensive is moving slowly, and the world is focused on the imminent Israeli ground invasion of Gaza.
At least three Russian battalions, each supported by an estimated 2,000-3,000 troops, began a dawn attack on Tuesday. Drone footage showed a line of military vehicles trundling forward. There has been intense fighting ever since. Russia has bombarded the city with relentless artillery fire and airstrikes.
Ukrainian military officials say Moscow’s goal is to encircle Avdiivka, but so far the attackers have made modest gains. Russia’s 25th combined arms army pushed forward from the south and north. It seized the nearby village of Berdychi and closed in on a 150-metre high slag heap next to the town’s coke and chemical factory.
The Russians have suffered serious losses. At least 36 Russian tanks and armoured vehicles were destroyed in the first 24 hours. According to the Kyiv Post, that figure has risen to 102 tanks and 183 armoured vehicles lost, with 2,840 troops killed. There were chaotic scenes. One tank fell off a pontoon bridge into a river. Another crushed a Russian soldier as it reversed; a Ukrainian munition then blew it up.
Col Dmytro Lysyuk – the commander of Ukraine’s 128th separate mountain assault brigade – said he believed there was zero possibility the Russian army would break through. He said that sending a lengthy military column into battle – a tactic used when Russian forces tried to seize Kyiv last year, and the eastern town of Vuhledar in February – would not work.
www.theguardian.com/…
Fierce fighting in Avdiivka on the eastern frontline entered a fifth day as Russia continued to deploy new forces in an attempt to surround the city, according to Vitaliy Barabash, the head of its military administration. Shelling was so fierce that emergency crews were unable to recover the dead from wrecked buildings, he said. Both Moscow and Washington have described the upsurge in violence around Avdiivka as a new Russian offensive.
Russian forces will likely continue offensive operations at this decreased tempo in the near term, however, and will remain a threat to Ukrainian forces in the area despite being unlikely to achieve a decisive breakthrough or encircle Avdiivka at this time. Any decrease in the tempo of Russian offensive operations may be the result of a temporary adjustment to the tactical situation, and Russian forces may intensify their attempts to encircle Avdiivka in the coming days. A Ukrainian military observer noted that Russian forces have penetrated Ukrainian flanks around Avdiivka and pose a significant threat to Ukrainian positions despite being unlikely to encircle Avdiivka in the near term.[16] Ukrainian military observers indicated that Russian forces had concentrated a significant grouping of forces consisting of elements of 15 motorized rifle regiments and 11 rifle regiments to the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front and have already executed regiment-size offensive operations in the area (meaning three or more battalions conducting cohesive assaults, a scale beyond that of most Russian or Ukrainian attacks at this stage in the war).[17] This reported Russian grouping will likely be able to sustain offensive operations aimed at encircling Avdiivka if Russian commanders are willing to sustain relatively high losses, despite being insufficient for an immediate breakthrough.
www.understandingwar.org/...
- At least six people have been killed in Russian attacks on Ukraine in the past 24 hours, local officials reported Sunday. Two people were killed and three more injured in the Kherson area after more than 100 shells bombarded the region over the weekend, the local governor, Oleksandr Prokudin, wrote on social media, according to AP.
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The White House national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said on Sunday that a new weapons package for Israel and Ukraine would be significantly higher than $2bn.In an interview on CBS’s Face the Nation, said Sullivan said Joe Biden would have extensive talks with the US Congress this week on the need for the package to be approved.
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The EU has urged China to treat it as a geopolitical power in the wake of the war against Russia in Ukraine. Ending a visit to Shangai and Beijing, Josep Borrell, the bloc’s high representative for foreign affairs said it was one of three messages he conveyed to his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi.
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Vladimir Putin, said in an interview published on Sunday that suggestions in the west that the US prepare for a simultaneous war with both Russia and China were nonsense, Reuters reports.
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Russian forces have improved their positions along almost the entire line of contact in Ukraine, Putin said on Sunday. Reuters reports that in a video posted to social media by the Kremlin journalist Pavel Zarubin, Putin said: “What is happening now along the entire length of the [line of] contact is called ‘an active defence’”
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Volodymyr Zelenskiy thanked troops in areas where fighting was “particularly hot”. In his regular address he said: “I thank everyone who is holding their positions and destroying Russian troops”, citing Avdiivka, Maryinka and other key locations in the Donetsk region.
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Russia’s defence ministry said its forces had shot down two Ukrainian drones over the Black Sea near the southern resort city of Sochi on Saturday morning. The city’s mayor, Alexei Kopaigorodskyi, said there had been no casualties or damage and that the situation was under control.
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A top Ukraine general said fighting in the north-east had “significantly worsened” as daily Russian attacks continued.
www.theguardian.com/…
- Russian President Vladimir Putin may be trying to temper expectations of significant Russian advances around Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast.
- The Russian information space writ large is also metering its initial optimism about the prospects of Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka.
- Russian forces continued offensive operations aimed at encircling Avdiivka on October 15 but have yet to make further gains amid a likely decreasing tempo of Russian operations in the area.
- Russian forces will likely continue offensive operations at this decreased tempo in the near term, however, and will remain a threat to Ukrainian forces in the area despite being unlikely to achieve a decisive breakthrough or encircle Avdiivka at this time.
- A prominent Russian milblogger and frontline unit commander complained that Russian military leadership is uninterested in battalion level problems, supplementing other Russian milblogger complaints about general problems in the Russian military.
- Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 15 and slightly advanced south of Bakhmut.
- Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 15 and advanced in some areas.
- A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces have “significant” reserves comprised of new divisions currently located in rear areas, though these formations are highly unlikely to be fully staffed at this time.
- The Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) is sending a reportedly Kremlin-affiliated priest to Crimea, likely as part of continued Russian efforts to persecute religious communities in occupied Ukraine.
www.understandingwar.org/...
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 15 and slightly advanced south of Bakhmut. Geolocated footage published on October 15 shows that Ukrainian forces marginally advanced towards the railway line north of Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut), and Russian sources reported continued Ukrainian ground attacks south of Bakhmut on the Klishchiivka-Kurdyumivka-Andriivka line (7-13km southwest of Bakhmut).[21] Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated that Ukrainian forces took advantage of recent Russian counterattacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast to gradually advance near Kopani (5km northwest of Robotyne), east of Nesteryanka (10km northwest of Robotyne), and near Verbove (18km southeast of Orikhiv).[22] Ukrainian officials have not yet commented on any recent Ukrainian advances along the Robotyne-Novoprokopivka-Verbove line (20km southwest to 18km southeast of Orikhiv), however. Russian sources reported continued Ukrainian attacks on the Robotyne-Novoprokopivka-Verbove line on October 15.[23]
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)
Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Kupyansk on October 15 but did not make any confirmed advances. .. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks near Synkivka and Ivanivka (19km southeast of Kupyansk).[25]
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations around Bakhmut on October 15 and made marginal gains. Geolocated footage published on October 15 shows elements of the 4th Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Brigade (2nd Army Corps, Southern Military District) striking Ukrainian positions at the railway line north of Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut), indicating marginal Ukrainian gains in the area.[33] A Russian news aggregator claimed that Ukrainian forces made unspecified advances towards the railway line near Klishchiivka and Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut) on October 14.[34] The Russian MoD claimed on October 15 that elements of the Russian Southern Grouping of Forces repelled Ukrainian assaults near Klishchiivka, Dubovo-Vasylivka (8km northwest of Bakhmut), and Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut).[35]
Hundreds of Ukrainians have been caught in the crossfire inside the Gaza Strip after Hamas terrorist attacks on Oct. 7 prompted Israel to respond with a total blockade and intense bombardment of the small Palestinian enclave.
Ukraine is now working to evacuate 243 Ukrainian citizens from Gaza, which has plunged into a "humanitarian catastrophe," Ukraine's Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lubynets said on national television on Oct. 14.
Yet, as of Oct. 15, hundreds of foreigners and millions of Palestinians have been unable to leave due to sealed borders.
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From February 24, 2022, Chornovol is fighting on the front lines as part of the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade named after the Black Zaporozhians. A few days before the start of the full-scale Russian invasion, she took a course for ATGW operators. According to the agreement with the Luch Design Bureau received ATGW Stuhna and rockets — a contract of responsible storage was drawn up for Tetiana Chornovol. She took part in the battles in Chernihiv, in the east Ukraine and in the defeat of the 6th tank regiment of the Russian Federation in the Brovary district of the Kyiv region.[75][76]
Tetiana Chornovol has a military rank of junior lieutenant.