Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in eastern and southern Ukraine on October 24 and advanced south of Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Geolocated footage published on October 23 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced east of Andriivka (10 km southwest of Bakhmut), and geolocated footage published on October 24 indicates that Ukrainian forces marginally advanced west of Robotyne.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported on October 24 that Ukrainian forces continued offensive actions south of Bakhmut and achieved partial success near Robotyne.[2]
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- Russia continued to pound the shattered eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka but Ukrainian officials said heavy losses had forced them to switch to air attacks. Oleksandr Shtupun, spokesperson for Ukraine’s southern group of forces, told national television that Russia “dropped about 40 guided aerial bombs in two nights. But the number of ground assaults has been reduced”. Shtupun said about 2,400 Russians had been killed or wounded over the previous five days of fighting in the Donetsk region.
- At least eight people were injured in Russian shelling of front-line regions of Ukraine. Ukraine’s Interior Minister Igor Klymenko said four people, including a 12-year-old, were wounded by Russian air strikes and artillery fire in the southern Kherson region, and another four were taken to hospital after an attack on the northeast region of Kharkiv.
- Russia’s Ministry of Defence said its naval forces destroyed three unmanned Ukrainian boats in the northern part of the Black Sea off Crimea. Moscow annexed the peninsula in 2014.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told a security conference in Prague that Kyiv would keep up military pressure on occupied Crimea, having shattered the “illusion” of Russia’s domination of Crimea and the Black Sea. Zelenskyy said that the Russian fleet was “no longer capable” of operating in the western part of the Black Sea and was gradually retreating from Crimea. He did not offer evidence for the claim.
- More than half the members of Ukraine’s newly-formed Siberian Battalion are Russian citizens, the Reuters news agency reported. The Russian recruits to the 50-strong battalion are mainly Siberia’s Indigenous people and want to fight “Russian imperialism”, Reuters said, citing a Ukrainian military officer who preferred not to be named. The battalion is part of the International Legion within the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
- German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stressed Berlin’s aid to Ukraine would not be affected by its support for Israel in its conflict with Hamas. Speaking at a German-Ukrainian business forum attended by Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and joined virtually by President Zelenskyy, Scholz said Kyiv would have assistance – from the economy to weapons – for “as long as necessary”.
- Shmyhal said Ukraine expects Germany to provide it with an additional 1.4 billion euros to enhance its air defences and help it get through a second winter at war with Russia.
- Moldova blocked access to more than 20 Russian media websites, including RT, NTV and other prominent outlets, saying they had been used as part of an information war against the country. The Russian foreign ministry branded the move a “hostile step”.
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- Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in eastern and southern Ukraine on October 24 and advanced south of Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
- Russia appears to be increasingly supplementing the use of Shahed-131/136 drones with cheaper and lighter domestically produced drone variants during strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure.
- Russian authorities are intensifying mobilization efforts targeting Central Asian migrant communities in Russia.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky highlighted diminishing Russian control over the Black Sea and Ukraine’s temporary grain corridors during a speech at the Crimean Platform summit on October 24.
- Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Avdiivka on October 24 and made confirmed advances northeast of Avdiivka.
- Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces maintain some positions in Krynky (30km east of Kherson City and 2km from the Dnipro River) and continued limited attacks on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD)-affiliated "Redut" private military company (PMC) is reportedly trying to recruit women into combat roles.
- Russian occupation authorities continue to establish programs to forcibly deport Ukrainian children to Russia.
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Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on October 24 but did not make any confirmed advances. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled unsuccessful Russian attacks in the Kupyansk area near Synkivka (8km northeast of Kupyansk) and Ivanivka (20km southeast of Kupyansk) and in the Svatove area near Makiivka (20km southwest of Svatove) and Nadiya (15km west of Svatove).[15] ...Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on October 24 and marginally advanced. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Synkivka, Ivanivka, and Serhiivka (12km southwest of Svatove), as well as west of Kreminna near Yampolivka and Dibrova.[19]
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations near Bakhmut on October 24 and made confirmed advances. Geolocated footage published on October 23 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced east of Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut) beyond the railway line.[21] A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced slightly east of Andriivka and that Ukrainian forces are near Odradivka (7km south of Bakhmut).[22] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attack and struck Ukrainian forces near Bohdanivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut) and Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut).[23] ... Ukrainian military analyst Colonel Petro Chernyk stated that Ukrainian forces hold positions on all the dominant heights near Bakhmut.[25] Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Bakhmut on October 24 and did not make confirmed advances. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks near Bohdanivka, Khromove (immediately west of Bakhmut), Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.[26] ...Footage published on October 23 purportedly shows units of the “Lynx” Spetsnaz Detachment and elements of the 1st “Wolves” Airborne (VDV) Infantry Brigade repelling a Ukrainian attack in an unspecified area along the E40 Slovyansk-Bakhmut highway and elements of the 106th VDV Division operating near Vasyukivka.[29] Footage published on October 24 purportedly shows drone operators of the BARS-13 Battalion (Russian Combat Reserve) operating south of Bakhmut.[30]
Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Avdiivka on October 24 and made confirmed advances. Geolocated footage published on October 23 and 24 indicates that elements of the 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Donetsk People's Republic [DNR] Army Corps) advanced to part of the waste heap (northeast of Avdiivka) and that Russian forces advanced southwest of Krasnohorivka (5km northeast of Avdiivka) and north of the railway line near Krasnohorivka.[31] Some Russian sources claimed that Russian forces completely captured the waste heap, though geolocated footage only confirms that Russian forces have advanced to the northwestern area of the waste heap.[32] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful attacks near Avdiivka, Stepove (8km northwest of Avdiivka), Keramik (10km northwest of Avdiivka), Sieverne (6km west of Avdiivka), and Tonenke (5km west of Avdiivka).[33]... Chernyk and Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that elements of the 15th, 21st, and 30th Motorized Rifle Brigades (all of the 2nd Combined Arms Army [CAA], Central Military District) are deployed near Avdiivka and that the Russian military may deploy additional elements of the 2nd Combined Arms Army to the Avdiivka direction.[35] Mashovets suggested that the Russian military may also deploy additional Central Military District units to the Avdiivka direction, including elements of the 41st Combined Arms Army.[36] ISW previously observed elements of the 41st CAA operating in the Kupyansk-Lyman direction and has assessed that elements of the 41st CAA may have deployed to the Kherson direction but has not yet observed visual confirmation of the 41st CAA operating near Avdiivka.[37]
It added that an anti-mining and an “anti-sabotage” operation was being conducted off the port of Sevastopol in the Black Sea, where Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is based. Moscow has used that fleet, comprised of some 30 warships, to try to blockade Ukraine’s coastline and fire missiles at Ukrainian cities.
It was not immediately clear whether there were any casualties from the latest Black Sea attack — and Kyiv issued no immediate comment.
“Ukraine’s actions have wrestled control of Ukraine’s western territorial waters back from Russia and prevented the Black Sea Fleet from threatening Odesa with amphibious assault or providing tactical fires and logistical support to Russian forces in Kherson,” retired US Army Major-General Gordon Skip Davis Jr told Al Jazeera in early October.
New shipping corridor
Ukraine’s engagement in the Black Sea has helped it establish a new “humanitarian corridor” in the waterway to get out its exports after Moscow deserted a deal to guarantee Kyiv’s shipments in July.
Since the opening of the corridor, which cuts through the waters of NATO members Bulgaria and Romania to deter Russia, Ukraine has exported some 700,000 tonnes of grain, helping it preserve a key component of its economy.
“We see a trend towards an increase in the number of ships leaving our ports. We hope it will continue,” senior Ukrainian agricultural official Mykola Solsky said on Monday.
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AL JAZEERA AND NEWS AGENCIES
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky highlighted diminishing Russian control over the Black Sea and Ukraine’s temporary grain corridors during a speech at the Crimean Platform summit on October 24. Zelensky stated that Russia attempted to create the illusion that Russian dominance of the Black Sea was insurmountable but said that this illusion is fading as the Russia Black Sea Fleet (BSF) gradually "flees" Crimea and increasingly struggles to operate in the western Black Sea.[12] Zelensky stated that the Russian authorities recently announced the creation of a new naval base for BSF assets in occupied Ochamchire, Abkhazia, far from the reach of long-range Ukrainian missiles and naval drones. ISW has previously reported on the impact of Ukraine’s strike campaign against Crimea and BSF assets and the construction of a permanent Russian naval base in Abkhazia.[13] Zelensky added that Russian forces no longer have a completely reliable logistical route between Crimea and mainland Russia. Zelensky noted that Ukraine has launched new temporary export routes from the Danube port in Odesa Oblast through the Black Sea and the overland “Solidarity Lanes” through Europe.[14]