A relatively warm October and expanding drought conditions across the Lower Mississippi Valley helped drop water levels to historic lows along parts of the Mississippi River last month.
The U.S. also confirmed another billion-dollar disaster in October, bringing the total to a record 25 disasters in the first 10 months — the largest number of disasters for any year since NOAA has kept track of these types of events.
emphasis added
Note that the events include both short term phenomenon like fires, hurricanes, floods, and longer term events like drought — and the year is not over yet. Also note that this doesn’t include lesser events that were made worse by climate change, nor does it give us the tally of all the damage that’s occurring around the world.
What was not mentioned at the Republican presidential debate the other day? Climate Change.
What was promised? More drilling, more exploitation of fossil fuels, bringing gasoline prices down — in short making climate change worse. Also: rolling back Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act climate provisions. (Throw Biden’s Green New Deal in the trash on Day One — Ron DeSantis.)
How expensive is ignoring climate? Again from NOAA:
Billion-dollar disasters
One new billion-dollar weather and climate disaster was confirmed in October after severe thunderstorms brought damaging winds and large hail to parts of the southern Plains from September 23-24.
To date, there have been a record 25 separate weather and climate disaster events this year, each with losses exceeding $1 billion. These disasters consisted of:
- 19 severe storm events.
- Two flooding events.
- One tropical cyclone.
- One winter storm.
- One wildfire event.
- One drought/heat wave event.
For this YTD period, the first 10 months of 2023 rank highest for disaster count, ahead of those of 2020 which saw 19 disasters at this point in the year. The total cost of the 2023 events exceeds $73.8 billion.
The U.S. has sustained 373 separate weather and climate disasters since 1980, where overall damages/costs reached or exceeded $1 billion (including Consumer Price Index adjustment to 2023). The total cost of these 373 events exceeds $2.645 trillion.
emphasis added
And Republicans tell us we can’t do anything about climate because it will hurt the economy?
There’s much more in the NOAA report. Meanwhile, from the Opinion Page of the New York Times (subscriber-only newsletter, David Wallace-Wells):
It is, James Hansen says, worse than you think.
In a paper published on Thursday and much debated among his colleagues since it was first posted as a preprint last December, Hansen, known as the godfather of climate science, and a group of like-minded colleagues made several alarming claims that all point in the same direction: that the world’s climate is significantly more sensitive to carbon emissions than scientists have acknowledged or the public appreciates, and that as a result, even those most focused on climate risks have been systematically underestimating how much warming the planet is likely to see over the next couple of decades.
The more ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement, to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, is “deader than a doornail,” Hansen said in introducing the paper. The agreement’s less ambitious goal, to which the signatories formally agreed, limiting warming to less than two degrees Celsius, is on its deathbed.
The Godfather link above will allow reading the full Times article. It’s not good news.
Paradoxically, part of the reason Hansen argues global warming is accelerating is because we’ve been doing a better job clearing up pollution in the atmosphere than cutting carbon emissions. It turns out certain aerosols that contribute to pollution cool the atmosphere, countering the heat-trapping effects of carbon emissions.
On the scientific front as well, Hansen, now 82, has been plotting a proudly independent course, warning again and again that warming would be worse than expected and that the scientific community had placed too much emphasis on climate models rather than direct observation and emphasizing what he has long called the “Faustian bargain” the world has made with pollution by aerosols like sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and black carbon, or soot, which cool the planet even though they are produced largely by the same processes that emit the carbon that warms it.
Not all climate researchers accept Hansen’s assertions about the magnitude of the effect of aerosols. While they are included in models, Hansen maintains the models don’t accurately reflect the actual amounts in the atmosphere or how much cooling they produce. While there is still disagreement about their effects, some researchers are also reporting they are seeing global warming accelerating, as Hansen predicts. There is also some disagreement about how fast global warming will decline depending on how fast carbon emissions are brought down; some are arguing warming will decline quickly as carbon emissions are reduced.
Whether Hansen is overestimating the problem, proves to be right on target, or is even underestimating where we are headed, the report from NOAA shows the heavy price we are already paying, and that the bill is likely to increase — especially if we do nothing.
That alone is sufficient reason to never vote for any Republicans who are doubling down on climate denial. Young people who are reportedly becoming disenchanted with Biden for whatever reason should remember that he’s already set in motion record investment in addressing climate. They can literally vote for a better future just by supporting that effort and continuing it.
It is worth remembering this: although climate change is a huge threat, that we can’t avoid being affected by it, and it will not be reversed overnight, every day’s progress counts, and we have answers that work. The rest of the challenge is — as always — overcoming ourselves to do what needs to be done.
UPDATE 10:30 ET 11-10-23
Bob Henson writing at Yale Climate Connections has a discussion of whether or not the warming can be limited to 1.5°C.
Strictly speaking, it’s not yet impossible to keep from heating our world more than 1.5 degrees Celsius beyond the average global air temperature of the mid-to-late 1800s, when the Industrial Revolution was gaining momentum. In practical terms, though, the odds of keeping global warming to 1.5°C are dwindling fast — though just how fast has been a matter of sharp debate. Here are a few points to help you navigate this critical and contentious topic.
There’s a discussion of Hansen’s predictions, a look at where emissions are headed, and how quickly renewables are coming on-line:
The World Energy Outlook also includes an update to an analysis first published in 2021, “Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5 °C Goal in Reach.”
“The path to 1.5 °C has narrowed, but clean energy growth is keeping it open,” the report says. “We have the tools needed to go much faster … momentum must be accelerated to be in line with the 1.5 °C goal and to ensure that the process of change works for everyone.”
To preserve the 1.5°C goal as well as a net-zero-by-2050 target, the report calls for a rapid scale-up of ambition this decade, including a tripling of renewable energy capacity, a halving of energy intensity (the amount of energy needed for a particular task), and reducing methane from fossil fuels by 75%.
We have lots of data, we have technology — it ultimately comes down to humans making policy decisions. Back on November 5, 2023, Digby posted The Existential Threat looking at how a second Trump term would be a global climate disaster. (Any Republican for that matter). She quotes Michael E. Mann at length:
...Consider what happened during the Obama era. Stymied by Republicans in Congress, President Obama nonetheless used his executive authority to promote incentives for renewable energy and tighter emissions restrictions on polluters, bringing China to the table and achieving a bilateral agreement that set the stage for the successful Paris summit. China ended up exceeding its commitments and began decommissioning coal-fired power plants.
But that all came to an abrupt halt with Trump. When he was elected, he turned over the reins of our government to fossil fuel interests and promised — and eventually made good on — a unilateral pullout from the Paris climate agreement. That signaled to other countries, like China and India, that the U.S. was no longer willing to keep up its end of the bargain, and in turn, they slacked off in their own efforts.
It is clear that the U.S. must lead — and that when we do, other nations join us.
Biden gets this; Republicans don’t.