The Russian military command will likely struggle to redeploy combat-effective reinforcements to respond to ongoing Ukrainian operations in eastern Kherson Oblast while conducting defensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and sustaining other offensive efforts in eastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian military observer Konstyantyn Mashovets stated that Ukrainian forces have established continuous control of positions from the Antonivsky railway bridge north of Poyma to the Antonivsky roadway bridge north of Oleshky (7km south of Kherson and 4km from the Dnipro River) as of November 9 and have cut the Oleshky-Nova Kakhovka (53km northeast of Kherson City) road in at least two areas.[4]
The Russian command will likely face significant challenges in redeploying units from other sectors of the front should relatively combat-ineffective Russian formations and currently uncommitted Russian forces in the Kherson direction prove insufficient to respond to the Ukrainian operations on the east bank of the Dnipro. Redeployments of considerable elements of the 7th VDV Division or other VDV formations and units in western Zaporizhia Oblast would likely disrupt Russian defensive operations there. Russian forces reportedly continue to accumulate forces for sustaining the Russian offensive effort near Avdiivka and localized offensive operations in Kharkiv and Luhansk oblasts.[12] Any potential Russian redeployment to the Kherson direction will likely degrade the Russian ability to sustain these other operations and efforts.
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- The Russian military command will likely struggle to redeploy combat-effective reinforcements to respond to ongoing Ukrainian operations in eastern Kherson Oblast while conducting defensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and sustaining other offensive efforts in eastern Ukraine.
- Russian forces have likely launched opportunistic localized offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction and intensified ground attacks near Bakhmut in recent days.
- Russian forces struck a civilian ship near Odesa City on November 8.
- Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin's annual live "Direct Line" forum and annual press conference will occur in tandem on an unspecified date by the end of the year, potentially to set conditions to cancel the events as the Kremlin sees fit.
- Russia may seek to provide gas to Iran through Kazakhstan.
- Unspecified actors appear to be targeting Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov as he continues to heap honors on his children.
- Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, in the Avdiivka direction, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced near Kupyansk.
- Russian authorities appear to be increasingly reliant on private security companies to protect domestic energy infrastructure from Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian far rear areas.
- Occupation authorities reportedly continued efforts to militarize Ukrainian youth.
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Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on November 9 and made a confirmed advance. Geolocated footage published on November 9 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced south of Pershotravneve (24km east of Kupyansk).[37] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Synkivka (9km northeast of Kupyansk), Kharkiv Oblast and Stelmakhivka (15km northwest of Svatove) and Novoyehorivka (16km southwest of Svatove) in Luhansk Oblast.[38]
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Avdiivka direction on November 9 and reportedly advanced. ... Russian sources additionally claimed that Russian forces advanced up to 1km beyond the railway line about 3km away from Berdychi (4km northwest of Avdiivka).[46] ... Russian sources additionally claimed that Russian forces are trying to break through Ukrainian lines southwest of Avdiivka near Vodyane.[48] Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun noted that Russian forces have increased their use of aviation in the Avdiivka direction over the past few days and are using Ka-52 and Mi-8 helicopters and Su-25 attack aircraft.[49] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces with aviation support conducted unsuccessful attacks southeast of Novokalynove (10km northwest of Avdiivka), and near Avdiivka, Keramik (10km northwest of Avdiivka), Stepove, Sieverne (5km west of Avdiivka), and Pervomaiske (10km southwest of Avdiivka).[50]
Russian forces continued offensive operations west and southwest of Donetsk City on November 9 but did not make any claimed or confirmed advances. Shtupun noted that Russian forces in the Marinka direction (on the southwest outskirts of Donetsk City) are concentrating offensive efforts near Marinka and Novomykhailivka (10km south of Donetsk City), and the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted 23 unsuccessful attacks near these two settlements over the course of the day.[51] … A Russian news aggregator claimed that the situation in Marinka remains unchanged and that there is fighting on the western outskirts of the settlement.[53] Russian sources also claimed that localized fighting is ongoing near Vuhledar (30km southwest of Donetsk City), particularly east of Vuhledar near Mykilske (3km southeast of Vuhledar).[54]
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on November 9 and recently made confirmed advances. Geolocated footage published on November 8 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced northwest of Verbove (9km east of Robotyne).[56] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) direction.[57] Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted unsuccessful assaults near Robotyne, Novoprokopivka (immediately south of Robotyne), and Verbove.[58]
Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast on November 9 but did not make any confirmed gains. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful assaults near Verbove and Robotyne.[59] Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun stated that Russian forces did not conduct any assaults in the Zaporizhia direction on November 8.[60] A Russian media aggregator claimed that Russian forces counterattacked near Verbove on November 8 but did not specify an outcome.[61]