National Democratic leaders got some encouraging news out of Florida on Wednesday when the Palm Beach Post's Stephany Matat, citing two unnamed sources, reported that former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell "has committed to running" against Republican Sen. Rick Scott. Mucarsel-Powell, whom Politico previously said that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is trying to recruit, has not yet confirmed she'll enter what would be an expensive and challenging race.
Democrats are hoping that 2024 will give them a chance to undo some of the big gains that Republicans have made in the Sunshine State and go after Scott, whose relationship with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is so toxic that one McConnell ally described to Time in April with just two words: "Ass clown." McConnell months before castigated Scott's proposal to have all federal legislation expire every five years, including Medicare and Social Security, as "just a bad idea." The minority leader predicted, "I think it will be a challenge for him to deal with this in his own reelection in Florida, a state with more elderly people than any state in America."
But Democrats have had a difficult time landing a strong recruit willing to test McConnell's theory, especially since last year's brutal election cycle left the party locked out of statewide office for the first time since Reconstruction. A few prominent donors told NBC in May that they were trying to land some out-of-the-box candidates―NBA legends Dwyane Wade and Grant Hill―but there's no indication either of them ever seriously considered running.
So far the only notable Democrat who has launched a bid against the wealthy Scott is Navy veteran Phil Ehr, who raised $2 million for his 2020 bid against the nationally infamous Rep. Matt Gaetz in the safely red 1st District, but he's so far attracted no major allies. Plenty of Democratic leaders very much want to avert a competitive primary that would only resolve in August of next year, and at least one potential candidate seems to share that wish: While Brevard County School Board member Jennifer Jenkins has publicly expressed interest in a Senate bid, people close to her tell Matat she wouldn't go for it "if other name-recognized candidates ran."
The story adds that state House Minority Leader Fentrice Driskell is also thinking about challenging Scott, but some prominent Democrats would prefer she instead wage a 2026 campaign to replace GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis. State Sen. Bobby Powell said as much to Matat, calling Driskell "the most qualified candidate" to win the party its first gubernatorial race since 1994. Former Rep. Alan Grayson also is talking about running and even filed FEC paperwork in late June, but his deliberations have attracted little attention now that he's well into the perennial candidate stage of his career.
Mucarsel-Powell, for her part, would give her party a candidate who has the potential to make history. The former congresswoman, who was born in Ecuador, would be the first Latina Democrat ever nominated for statewide office; she'd also be the second woman to represent Florida in the Senate after the late Paula Hawkins, a Republican who was elected in 1980 and lost six years later.
Mucarsel-Powell also has experience running in competitive races, though she's lost more than she's won. The Democrat, who headed a consulting firm that aided nonprofits with fundraising, first emerged on the political scene in 2016 when she challenged Republican state Sen. Anitere Flores in the Miami area. Mucarsel-Powell lost 54-46, but her campaign still impressed party leaders and made her a compelling option the following cycle when she took on Rep. Carlos Curbelo in the old 26th Congressional District.
That race proved to be one of the most competitive contests anywhere in 2018. Curbelo had just won his second term 53-41 even as Hillary Clinton was carrying his seat 57-41, and he had a strong fundraising network behind him. Republicans also did what they could to try to "other" Mucarsel-Powell in this heavily Latino constituency by calling her only the Anglicized name of "Debbie Powell," arguing she "doesn’t share our values," and recycling dubious attacks over her husband’s business interests.
Mucarsel-Powell, though, proved to be a formidable fundraiser herself, and she found a poignant line of attack by focusing her ads on healthcare. Mucarsel-Powell ultimately unseated Curbelo 51-49 in that blue wave year, a win that made her the first immigrant from South America ever elected to Congress.
The new congresswoman immediately became a top GOP target for 2020, and the party successfully recruited Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Giménez to take her on. What followed was another expensive campaign in a political atmosphere that proved to be far tougher for local Democrats than almost anyone imagined. Donald Trump capitalized on his strong performance with Cuban Americans and other Latino groups in Florida to take the 26th 53-47―a mammoth swing of 22 points from four years before. That transformation was too much for Mucarsel-Powell to overcome, and Giménez unseated her 52-48.
The now-former congresswoman quickly made it clear she wasn't done with politics, though. Mucarsel-Powell, whose father was fatally shot when she was 24, soon became a senior advisor for Giffords, the prominent gun safety group that former Arizona Rep. Gabby Giffords formed after she survived a 2011 assassination attempt. Last month Mucarsel-Powell previewed some of the arguments she might use against Florida Republicans if she runs again by highlighting DeSantis' far-right agenda and declaring, "These out-of-touch extremists cannot continue to wield the levers of power in our state. It’s time for Democrats to go on offense. Because our lives, our children’s lives, depend on it."
Take that, GOP schemes to rig ballot measures! On this week's episode of "The Downballot," co-hosts David Nir and David Beard gleefully dive into the failure of Issue 1, which was designed to thwart a November vote to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution. The Davids discuss why Republican efforts to sneak their amendment through during a summertime election were doomed to fail; how many conservative counties swung sharply toward the "no" side; and what the results mean both for Sherrod Brown's reelection hopes and a future measure to institute true redistricting reform.