Hotspots of fighting over the weekend along the front line include the southwest of the destroyed city of Bakhmut, in Ukraine's contested Donetsk region, and around the southern settlement of Urozhaine in Zaporizhzhia.
A Russian warship forcibly stopped and searched a civilian cargo ship en route to the Izmail port in Odesa Oblast, likely as part of a Kremlin effort to curtail maritime traffic to Ukrainian ports without committing naval assets to fully enforce a blockade. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) stated that the Russian Vasily Bykov patrol ship forcibly stopped and searched a dry cargo ship sailing under the flag of Palau after it did not respond to the Vasily Bykov’s demand for inspection.[10] The Russian MoD stated that the Russian forces conducted small arms warning fire near the civilian ship before a Ka-29 helicopter landed on the vessel with a group of Russian personnel.[11] The Russian MoD claimed that the Russian personnel conducted an inspection and then allowed the civilian vessel to continue along its route to the Izmail port.[12]
The Russian MoD announced on July 19 that it would consider all ships en route to Ukrainian ports as potential military cargo carriers and the flag countries of such vessels as “involved in the Ukrainian conflict on the side of the Kyiv regime.”[13] Russian forces did not stop three civilian ships which openly advertised their destination as Ukraine over their ships‘ automatic identification system (AIS) on July 30.[14] The reports of the three civilian ships sailing to Ukraine unhindered suggested that Russian forces may be unable or unwilling to forcibly stop and search neutral vessels, and Russian forces likely conducted their first forced inspection to reimpose the threat of escalation against civilian vessels en route to Ukraine.[15] Russian forces also likely conducted the forced stop and inspection to undermine confidence in temporary trading corridors through the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports, which Ukrainian officials announced on August 10.[16] The Russian naval posturing in the Black Sea is likely intentionally ambiguous and seeks to create a chilling effect on civilian maritime traffic to Ukraine without requiring Russian forces to commit Black Sea Fleet assets to the enforcement of a naval blockade.[17] The Russian military is likely less willing to commit the Black Sea Fleet to such a blockade than it was in July following notable Ukrainian strikes on Russian naval targets in the Black Sea and the Novorossiysk naval base in Krasnodar Krai in early August.[18]
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On Sunday, Russia said its Vasily Bykov patrol ship had fired automatic weapons on the Palau-flagged Sukru Okan vessel after the ship’s captain failed to respond to a request to halt for an inspection.
Russia said the vessel was making its way toward the Ukrainian port of Izmail. Refinitiv shipping data showed that the ship was currently near the coast of Bulgaria and heading toward the Romanian port of Sulina.
“To forcibly stop the vessel, warning fire was opened from automatic weapons,” the Russian defence ministry said.
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- Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front on August 13 and reportedly advanced in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
- ISW has not observed confirmation that Russian forces have completely withdrawn from Urozhaine and Russian forces likely currently maintain positions in at least the southern part of the settlement.
- The Russian information space is seizing on Ukrainian gains in Urozhaine (in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area) to highlight poor Russian morale and command challenges in the area.
- A Russian warship forcibly stopped and searched a civilian cargo ship en route to the Izmail port in Odesa Oblast, likely as part of a Kremlin effort to curtail maritime traffic to Ukrainian ports without committing naval assets to fully enforce a blockade.
- Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove line and attempted to regain lost positions near Bakhmut, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and reportedly advanced in some areas.
- Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove line, near Kreminna, near Bakhmut, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and reportedly advanced in several areas.
- The Wagner Group is likely downsizing and reconfiguring to adapt to financial pressure following the June 24 Wagner rebellion.
- Ukrainian partisans claimed to have attacked a Russian military base in occupied Mariupol on August 13.
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Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove line on August 13 and reportedly advanced. Russian Western Grouping of Forces Spokesperson Sergey Zybinsky claimed that assault groups of the 6th Combined Arms Army (Western Military District) advanced near Vilshana (15km northeast of Kupyansk).[19] Former Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Interior Minister Vitaly Kiselyov claimed that Russian forces are advancing in unspecified areas on the left (east) bank of the Oskil River and are no more than five kilometers from the outskirts of Kupyansk in some unspecified areas.[20] ... The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground attacks northeast of Synkivka (9km northeast of Kupyansk), north of Kyslivka (20km southeast of Kupyansk), and southeast of Andriivka (15km west of Svatove).[22]
Ukrainian forces continued limited offensive operations in the Bakhmut area but did not make any claimed or confirmed advances on August 13. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces attacked Russian positions north and west of Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut).[25]… Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut area and reportedly advanced on August 13. ... The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations west of Yahidne (2km north of Bakhmut), near Klishchiivka, south of Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut), and near Bila Hora (12km southwest of Bakhmut).[28]
Russian forces continued limited offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line but did not advance on August 13. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks near Avdiivka and Marinka (27km southwest of Avdiivka).[31]
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front on August 13 and reportedly advanced in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in the Berdyansk (western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast area) and Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) directions and achieved partial success near Robotyne (western Zaporizhia Oblast, 13km south of Orikhiv).[1] Several Russian sources claimed on August 12 that Russian forces withdrew from Urozhaine (in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast area), although many Russian sources refuted those claims on August 13 and claimed instead that Russian forces still occupy the southern part of Urozhaine, that fighting is ongoing, and that areas of Urozhaine are contested.[2] ISW has not observed confirmation that Russian forces have completely withdrawn from Urozhaine and Russian forces likely currently maintain positions in at least the southern part of the settlement.
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on August 13 and advanced south of Velyka Novosilka. ...Geolocated footage posted on August 13 confirms that some Russian troops left the village and shows Russian infantry retreating from Urozhaine towards Zavitzne Bazhannya (less than 3km south of Urozhaine).[35]
Russian forces reportedly conducted unsuccessful attempts to restore lost positions in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 13. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful attempts to restore lost positions east of Robotyne.[43] A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces from the eastern outskirts of Robotyne on August 12.[44]