Hurricane Hilary, currently off the southern coast of Mexico, has strengthened to a strong Cat 4 hurricane at sustained winds of 145 mph. It will make landfall in the Baja Peninsula and traverse southern CA on Sunday. Hurricane Hilary is expected to further strengthen a bit today before entering cooler waters and weakening as it travels northwards.
Primary threats are coastal flooding, heavy rainfall and flash floods across the southwest (southern CA, NV, UT, and western AZ), including desert areas, and tropical storm winds in southern CA and the Baja Peninsula, Saturday through Monday.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for San Diego, Orange and Los Angeles counties and parts of Ventura county. Tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches/warnings are in effect for parts of the Baja Peninsula.
This is the first time NHC has issued a watch for that region; the NHC did not exist in the 1930s; regional hurricane offices had hurricane warning/advisory responsibilities then.
Hilary is quite a large hurricane with its tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 288 miles from the center.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS (issued at 11:00 a.m. EDT Aug 18) -
INIT 18/1500Z 17.9N 111.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 19.2N 112.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 21.3N 113.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 23.7N 114.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 26.8N 115.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 30.4N 116.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 35.2N 117.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
Rainfall forecast estimates have gone up and moved further east. Rain will arrive on Saturday, well before the eye of the storm.
Flood warnings will be going up -
Some technical analysis on why rainfall amounts will be heavy even before Hilary arrives in CA and after it dissipates -
Satellite imagery of the huge storm -
Sea surface temperatures along the path of hurricane Hilary have been unusually warm so far (so have ocean waters all around the world), which led to its very rapid intensification. It will reach cooler waters by tomorrow and thereby weaken in intensity. But this is a large storm, it will not die off quickly, it will carry and dump a lot moisture even as a tropical storm remnant.
An Air Force AF300 hurricane hunter aircraft is on its way from 403rd Wing at Keesler Air Force Base, Mississippi, which will make precise measurements inside the hurricane.
A few weather firsts for southern CA :(
The Atlantic hurricane season is revving up too.
Atlantic hurricanes normally sharply increase from late August into September. This hurricane season is expected to be above normal, in spite of the tempering effects of El Nino — www.noaa.gov/…
Hurricanes, floods, extreme heat, wildfires, drought — we have it all this year. And it is no secret as to why.
Here is a good article with important tips on how to be prepared for the storm -
More tips on staying safe during the storm -
Epilogue
Let’s keep an eye on these storms. For those in the path, the time for preparations is now.
These events won’t be the last as earth’s climate is already under stress with the greenhouse gases we have been pumping into the atmosphere for decades.
Also, let’s also keep educating the public about climate change and global warming, that it is caused by human activity and increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, most of it contributed by fossils fuels, and what we are seeing this year in terms of heat waves, wildfires, floods and droughts are a mild version of what lies ahead.
And let’s keep emphasizing that if republicans take control of Washington, then we can pretty much kiss earth goodbye, since these fascists have plans ready to undo the progress we have made so far on renewal energy and to turn government into a slave of the fossil fuel industry.
P.S. See this earlier diary Hurricane Hilary headed towards California for some more info on the development of Hurricane Hilary.