I wanted to share with you a good overview of the situation in the field of military aid to Ukraine, written by military expert Oleksiy Kopytko.The idea that "the resources of the West have been exhausted, there are no means to provide assistance in the same volume, therefore a decision should be made" is more and more often introduced in various texts and discussions. There is a small nuance that overturns this logic.
When the phrase "resources have been exhausted" is used, one should understand that it refers to weapons that could have been shared without compromising a country's defense capabilities under the existing norms and with political amendments (primarily the land component, the navy and aviation are a slightly different story).
There is a huge amount of weapons and ammunition in the arsenals and warehouses of the armies of the USA, Great Britain, and other NATO and EU countries. And there is an absolutely ironclad argument as to why these weapons should be shared with Ukraine on a large scale now and very quickly.
The fact is that war is a period of rapid modernization of weapons and doctrines. What in peacetime can take years or decades, now happens in months. Both the Ukrainian army and the Russian army have accumulated experience that no one else has. Russia will certainly share its knowledge with its Axis of Evil accomplices. They already are. Hamas is already using drones in ways that it could only learn from the Russians. Iran has already modernized drones so that its new experience will be in great demand for distances of about 1000 km (621 miles) (it is less than 200 km (124 miles) to Taiwan, and about 1000 km to Tokyo from North Korea). It is just a matter of time before some "Nigerian-Yemeni-Philippine" pirates use a maritime drone to strike a merchant ship (the Russians are trying hard to reproduce Ukrainian achievements).
FPV drones already create a strip of up to 20 km where armored vehicles don't last, or last poorly and not for long. A year ago this was not the case.High-precision weapons, which a year ago hit 10 out of 10 (remember Antonivsky Bridge), no longer do so. So, a lot has changed. What has been accumulated in arsenals and warehouses is rapidly becoming obsolete. In fact, for a considerable share of existing weapons and equipment, our war is the last chance to perform adequately.
At present, these weapons are stored for the reason of "just in case something happens". The thing is that if something happens, it will be too late: the enemy will have the knowledge that will radically reduce the effectiveness of what is saved for a rainy day.Or it is necessary to invest in modernization on a large scale. Which is not always rational.Or to produce new products on a large scale. Which may be more expensive and longer, but will provide a longer perspective.
This is a political decision. But the point is that either option is impossible without deploying the military-industrial complex to meet new threats. Those of the partners who want to prolong the situation are de facto urging "not to look ahead". After all, even if the front in Ukraine goes quiet tomorrow, it will not solve the problem - obsolescence has already happened. What they think about Ukraine is no longer important.
For their own benefit, it is necessary to jump-start the military-industrial complex.If there is a pause in the war, the Kremlin and its allies will use this pause with the highest efficiency possible. After all, apart from knowledge, the Russian Federation already has hundreds of thousands of people with real combat experience. Therefore, the best option not only for us but also for our Western (as well as Asian) partners is to give Ukraine everything they have (with obvious exceptions) which is gradually becoming obsolete. We will get a chance to defend ourselves, buy time (or rather it will help us catch up), and not allow Russia and its accomplices to accumulate resources for an attack.
During this time our partners will be able to restore defense production. Actually, Germany is already doing it quietly. Whoever is the first to unleash its military-industrial complex will benefit the most. Thus, we should not believe in "exhaustion". There are still a lot of steps, which essentially mean a change of investment priorities rather than expenses for the partners. And they will be extremely painful for the Russian Federation (Kaja Kallas highlighted one of such steps yesterday).