*** First, Happy New Year to all the readers of DK, the DK staff & director, and all the writers here, volunteer or paid!
I am really excited to look ahead to the next twelve months of 2024. There are dozens of good things happening every day, especially in medical advances, economic news & inflation reduction, political news and Dem gains or victories, and a hundred other topics. Whatever I miss is usually caught by a big team of GNR authors, DK community writers, or the legion of very observant readers and commentors who visit this site.
Though I have a few time-consuming challenges that will limit the length of this roundup, I expect a few of them to much less pressing by my next posting date.
*** Optimism Quotes
* Optimism is the faith that leads to achievement. Nothing can be done without hope and confidence. Helen Keller
* Your success and happiness lies in you. Resolve to keep happy, and your joy and you shall form an invincible host against difficulties. Helen Keller
* The price of success is hard work, dedication to the job at hand, and the determination that whether we win or lose, we have applied the best of ourselves to the task at hand.
Vince Lombardi
* In order to carry a positive action we must develop here a positive vision.
Dalai Lama
* Once you replace negative thoughts with positive ones, you'll start having positive results.
Willie Nelson
Regular Scheduled Programming
(A Repeat of chloris creators credo!)
No one here is naïve; we are aware of the many who are fighting to destroy our country. Some of us expected it: the cheating, the lying, the chaos, and yes, even the attempts to cling to power despite the clear will of the people. But we are here to read the efforts and the positive results of those (including us and our fellow gnus) who are working so hard to save our country from those very bad people. We are furious with them for what they are doing and we are letting them know. Remember:
💙 There are more of us than there are of them.
💛 They are terrified when we organize. THERE IS LOTS OF EVIDENCE THAT THEY ARE TERRIFIED!
💔 They want us to be demoralized. The best way to keep up your spirits is to fight. So, take the time to recharge your batteries, but find ways to contribute to the well-being of our country and our world.
** My brief take-off from chloris creators’ credo is this: With enough Dems working together, all doing one, two, or three things each in 2024, we can have an enormous impact on the ‘24 elections. If we “old-line” activists can
1) Each pull in just one more volunteer;
2) Continue contributing small amounts each month to good candidates and/or groups;
3) Write more Postcards to Voters/ Letters to Voters this year than in ‘20 or ‘22;
4) Any other actions to help win the coming elections; we can and will make 2024 a Blue Wave election to remember!
** Life of Brian- Song of Optimism
***
*** Youth Voters critical to ‘24 Elections
Youth and the 2024 Election: Likely to Vote and Ready to Drive Action on Key Political Issues
November 29, 2023
CIRCLE's early poll of youth (ages 18-34) ahead of the 2024 presidential election highlights major trends in young people's political views and participation.
57% “Extremely Likely” to Vote in 2024 (Based on polling Questions)
57% of youth, ages 18-34, say they’re “extremely likely” to vote in 2024, and another 15% say they’re “fairly likely” to cast a ballot in the election.
Note: If the Youth Voter (YV) group does turn out as the poll indicates, this would clearly be a big shift upward from the 2016 & 2020 elections, both presidential election years, of course. Per data from the US Elections Project, this is how the YV group turned out in past elections:
2008 |
48.4% |
Presidential |
2014* |
16.3% |
|
2016 |
43.4% |
Presidential |
2018 |
32.6% |
|
2020 |
52.5% |
Presidential |
2022 |
25.5% |
Based on that poll, and YV turnout in past elections, I think 56-59% YV turnout in ‘24 is very realistic!!!
+21 for Democratic Candidate
Among youth who are extremely likely to vote: 51% back the Democratic candidate, 30% the Republican, 16% undecided.
Key Youth Voter Issues: Economy, Climate, Guns
Young people’s top issues are inflation/cost of living, jobs that pay a living wage, gun violence, and climate change.
In 2024, Gen Z youth alone will make up over 40 million potential voters—including 8 million youth who will have newly reached voting age since 2022—making up nearly one fifth of the American electorate. Together with the youngest Millennials, young people ages 18-34 are poised to be a potential force in the next presidential election.
Note: Strangely enough, Abortion Rights seems Not to be one of the issues presented to the Youth Voters. But past experience in 7 states with abortion rights on the ballot in 2023 showed that it is still a powerful issue, winning in all 8 times the issue was on the ballot in those 7 states. Make no mistake, Abortion Rights it will be a key issue in state and nation elections this year.
Updated: Ten 12 Reasons that Trump is Toast in 2024
Note: This by no means a comprehensive list, just the high points of his troubles!
-
Trump already proved he cannot beat Biden-Harris- in 2020. The Electoral College vote count was 306- Biden, to 232 -Trump. The popular vote count was Biden @ 81.283 million vs Trump @ 74.223 million votes.
-
Election results in 2022 strongly favored Dems, not Repubs, especially those endorsed by TDFG.
-
His legal troubles will only continue to get worse. Trumps first trial is essentially over, and he has already been found guilty of fraud. The final verdict will be a monetary award. After this, TDFG has six more trials scheduled; 3 criminal, and three civil trials. Iin all, he faces 91 criminal charges!
4. Incumbency is always a formidable advantage for an elected office.
** What is the rate at which incumbents are reelected to the House of Representatives?
In the House, the percentage of incumbents winning reelection has hovered between 85 and 100 percent for the last half century. In the Senate, there is only slightly more variation, given the statewide nature of the race, but it is still a very high majority of incumbents who win reelection (Figure)
5. Trump the candidate, and quarterback of his campaign, is his own worst enemy! The political and military (self-described) genius is having extreme trouble getting top-level donors (other than the Koch Family) to back his campaign. His speeches have recently shifted sharply toward themes linked to the Nazi Party, such as referring to enemies as “vermin”, “enemies of the state”, and criticizing immigrants as risking “the purity of our blood”.
Beyond that, his speeches have shown him to be having difficulty with facts, such as confusing Biden with Barack Obama, Or Hillary Clinton, or WWII with WWI
Aside from the basic point of his ability to lead his own campaign, most DK readers are aware that there is raging debate, both within the GOP and in other parties, about whether TDFG is sane enough to allow him to continue as a candidate for the Presidency. This is an issue that I don’t think will just go away- because his actions & comments will keep it going!!
* One final point. Take a close look at the Civiqs Polls on DK, and scroll down to “Support for Donald Trump". He has not regained the support of Republicans he had in 2016 or 2020. That is also true for Independent supporters. And only about 2% of Dems support him. I’ll take a closer look at these tracking polls as the election gets closer, But I believe his support will crumble more rapidly after each felony conviction.
6. Gen Z is already signaling strongly they will be out in force in ‘24. Based on an Ipsos/CIRCLE poll in Nov. ‘23, Youth Voters have said the “57% [are] extremely likely [to vote in 2024}”, and another “15% [are] fairly likely [to vote in 2024]”. It looks very likely to me that they will surpass the 2020 record of 52.5% (per Elec. Project) next year.
I’m going out on a limb, and I am predicting that they will turn out at 56-59% of the voter- eligible Youth Voters in Nov ‘24!
7. Abortion Rights is a losing issue for TDFG and Repubs in ‘24. As reported many times previously on DK, 8 of the last 8 statewide elections involving abortion rights were won by the pro-choice voters. So far, nothing has been shown to reverse that strong public sentiment.
As many recent state elections, polls, and ballot initiatives have shown, the Repugs have ignited a large core of highly energized women (and men as well) who are going to fight like hell on this issue for a considerable time into the future.
8. The Republican Party is a dumpster fire colliding with a train wreck of radioactive waste. Uhm, do I really need to explain this??
First, the House has been spectacularly ineffective and convulsive. From the switch in House Speakers, to the failure to agree on government funding, to upholding hundreds of military promotions (in the Senate), to physical altercations (House), to the remarkable inability to pass anything of note, even Chip Roy is embarrassed by it all!!
Considering that several state R Party orgs. are struggling with fundraising, and that one their best fundraisers has just retired (McCarthy), it’s … an unusual look for party of big business.
9. Swing states look stable or better as we enter 2024. Though some polls have shown TDFG to be stronger in swing states now than in 2020, he’s also lost a lot of voters in both the Rep. Party and among Ind. Party voters. And it’s a long time till the election. (See no. 10)
10. Polls of candidates one year out are even less predictive than those a few weeks out. And as many before me have said, polls should always be taken with a grain (at least) of salt.
11. Major donors to Reps are sitting tight on their money. Small donors are better, but not matching Dem enthusiasm.
12. It’s the economy, stupid!! And the US economy is doing quite well, thank you!
After a long series of rate hikes, the Fed is signaling that they may be almost done (or done) with their interest rate hikes. In reaction, the Dow and the NASDAQ have been on a tear upward! The US economy is still adding jobs, though the number of unemployed is also rising now. But consumer confidence is high, and the future looks good- with very low odds of a dreaded recession.
**CPI inflation is running at 3.1% over the last year—similar to the decades prior to the global financial crisis—and down two thirds from its peak. Core inflation has fallen to 3.4% over the last three months. At the same time, employment and growth have far exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate remaining below 4% for 22 months in a row, and the economy growing by 3.0% over the last four quarters.
**By the closing bell Friday, the last of 2023, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had gained 4,542 points for the year, roughly a 13% increase. The S&P 500 netted 930 points, a new record for the index and a 24% increase for the year, while the Nasdaq rocketed up 4,545 points, a 43% yearly increase.✂️
The main driver for market wins has been the Federal Reserve, which continued to raise interest rates in the early part of the year by a total of one basis point but paused during its last three meetings. The current federal funds rate sits at 5.25% to 5.5%.
The Fed hasn’t yet brought inflation down to its 2% goal, but experts still believe the central bank will begin cutting rates sometime early next year and will finish 2024 with a 4.5% interest rate.✂️
The job market remains strong, with 2.55 million jobs gained so far in 2023; December’s job data have not yet been released, and the job reports from October and November have not yet been finalized.” (HT to Niftywriter for these Good Economic news notes!!)
** Some Great Organizations to Consider Supporting in 2024:
www.voteriders.org
votersoftomorrow.org
leaderswedeserve.com
Note: My last attempt at a poll collapsed into a
cyber-nightmare. But I’ll keep trying to get it right!
Respondez s’il vous plait, comment if you feel like it, and feel free to have some fun with it all!!