• NJ-08: An internal poll for Rep. Rob Menendez obtained by the New Jersey Globe finds him beating Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla in the June 4 Democratic primary by a 46-24 margin, while businessman Kyle Jasey is a distant third with 6%. The survey, from Democratic pollster TargetSmart, argues that voters have not blamed Menendez for the alleged wrongdoing of his father, Sen. Bob Menendez, who was indicted last year on federal corruption charges: By a 73-16 margin, respondents say that that congressman "should not be punished for the actions of his father."
• AZ-06: Conservative radio host Kathleen Winn is once again running against Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani and just earned an endorsement from the wife of former House Freedom Caucus chair Andy Biggs, who represents Arizona's 5th District.
Winn took a distant third in the 2022 GOP primary but spent $325,000 on that effort. She also had the backing of prominent far-right figures like Kari Lake and Joe Arpaio and had previously won elected office, albeit outside the district in Maricopa County.
Winn's candidacy, along with that of another MAGA fan, Brandon Martin, was apparently cause for concern for the GOP establishment, which was eager to flip the open 6th District. The Congressional Leadership Fund wound up spending more than $1 million to ensure Ciscomani, a prized recruit, earned the nomination.
In the end, Ciscomani prevailed by a 47-21 margin over Martin, who had been the GOP nominee in 2020; Winn ended up with 19% of the vote. In the general election, though, Ciscomani squeaked out an unexpectedly narrow 51-49 win over Democrat Kristen Engel, who is running again.
Democrats would love to face an extremist like Winn rather than Ciscomani, but Winn would probably need a boost from Democratic super PACs to have a real shot: She's raised barely $20,000 for her latest campaign while Ciscomani has more than $2.1 million in his coffers.
• MO-Gov: A new survey from Illinois-based Republican pollster ARW Strategies finds Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft taking 36% in the GOP primary for Missouri's open governorship, while Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe and state Sen. Bill Eigel are tied at 13 apiece and 38% are undecided. The firm's principal, Andrew Weissert, says he is "[n]ot affiliated with any candidate, committee, or outside group."
A poll last month from Remington Research had Ashcroft leading Kehoe 34-20 while Eigel was at just 4%.