Here we go again.
Today’s New York Times front page features findings from the latest Times/Siena poll of 980 registered voters (that’s 980 out of 161.42 million). And naturally, the message is that the poll indicates even worse news for Joe Biden. No doubt the poll results will be milked and cited for all they’re worth by the NYT and other media in the coming days, weeks, and months...until the poll’s next iteration. Lather, rinse, repeat.
The Cross-Tabs for the poll are at this link:
www.nytimes.com/...
A few things struck me as...umm...questionable.
But first: How do calls from Times/Siena (or any other polling organization) show up on a person's phone/caller ID? Does it identify itself as "Times-Siena poll", or is it some anonymous number? If the latter, I do not know anyone who will answer a cold call from an unknown number on their cell.
Now on to the substance of the Cross-Tabs:
- "(Excluding “I did not vote”) Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, or did you not vote?"
41% Donald Trump
53% Joe Biden
Within this question, more men said they voted for Biden (50%) than Trump (43%) in 2020.
Seems to me this runs counter to what the reality was in 2020, when over 150 million people voted. So if the latest Times/Siena poll cannot capture that basic fact, how reliable are the rest of its findings?
When asked if Biden's or Trump's policies helped or hurt them personally:
- 40% of women said Biden's policies hurt and 18% said they helped
- 26% of women said Trump's policies hurt and 39% said they helped.
Seriously? Over twice as many women think Trump's "policies" helped them more than Joe Biden's? Which Trump "policies" helped them, and when? The response makes no sense, especially in light of the post-Dobbs decision and other ongoing GOP assaults on women’s rights.
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- 30% of poll respondents said they get their news from Fox (10%), social media (17%), or conservative (3%) sources.
Well, that explains a lot. In other words: garbage in, garbage out.
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Lastly, this question:
"(If Democratic primary voter) Regardless of who you prefer in the Democratic primary, do you think Joe Biden should be the Democratic Party’s nominee for president in 2024, or should there be a different Democratic nominee for president in 2024?"
Okay, fine. But it begs the question: why wasn't the following analogous question asked?
“(If Republican primary voter)" Regardless of who you prefer in the Republican primary, do you think Donald Trump should be the Republican Party’s nominee for president in 2024, or should there be a different Republican nominee for president in 2024?"
The omission is concerning for a poll that is supposedly objective, and belies an approach that seems intentionally designed to put Biden (and Democrats) in a harsher light. Sowing doubt. Always sowing doubt.
Looking forward for others to weight in and offer their own insights/opinions.