• MD-Sen: Braun Research, polling for the Washington Post and the University of Maryland, shows former GOP Gov. Larry Hogan with double-digit leads over both of his prospective Democratic foes. Hogan outpaces Rep. David Trone 49-37, and he holds a similar 50-36 advantage over Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks.
Respondents give Hogan a 64-23 favorable rating 14 months after he left office, while they don't have much of an impression of his would-be rivals: Trone posts a 33-21 score, while Alsobrooks is at 26-15. Democrats are hoping that things will change once they pick a nominee who can tie Hogan to unpopular national Republicans, though such an effort may require outside groups to spend money they'd rather devote to more competitive states.
Braun also looks at the May 14 Democratic primary and finds Trone leading Alsobrooks 34-27. Trone, a self-funder who began airing TV ads in May, had a larger 49-32 advantage in the last survey we saw, a Hickman Analytics internal conducted for his campaign a month ago.
• NH-Gov: Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington has publicized a late February poll from GBAO that shows her initially trailing former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig 37-25 in the September Democratic primary, though the memo says that respondents favor Warmington after they hear positive information about each candidate. Craig and Warmington are competing to succeed Republican Gov. Chris Sununu, who is not seeking a fifth two-year term.
• NC-Gov: Marist College's first look at the general election for governor shows Democrat Josh Stein edging out Republican Mark Robinson 49-47 even as respondents favor Donald Trump 51-48.
Robinson, for his part, is happy fighting with one of those Trump voters who isn't behind him. The lieutenant governor told a conservative radio host last week that when it comes to North Carolina's senior senator, "I'm not interested in anything that Thom Tillis has to say. As far as I'm concerned, Thom Tillis has abandoned the base of our party." Tillis, who backed another candidate in the March 5 primary, responded Wednesday, "The feeling’s mutual."
• OH State House: Four allies of Ohio House Speaker Jason Stephens lost renomination in Tuesday's GOP primaries, but News 5's Morgan Trau says the defeats may not be enough for Stephens' intra-party detractors to deprive him of his powerful post in January.
Stephens took charge of the 99-person House last year with the support of all 32 members of the Democratic minority and 21 other Republicans, while the remaining 45 Republicans backed state Rep. Derek Merrin. (Democrats received greater representation on committees in return, though Republicans have still forged ahead with a deeply conservative agenda.)
But can Stephens pull off a similar feat next year? Five members of the group that angry conservatives dubbed the "Blue 22" did not (or could not) seek reelection, explains Trau, but it appears that Stephens has won over five Merrin supporters since last year's fight.
Following Tuesday's losses, however, that would take Stephens' faction down to 18. But if Democrats retain all 32 of their seats and ally with Stephens again, that would give the speaker 50 votes—the exact minimum he'd need to keep his job. Democrats are still hoping to expand their caucus, but Trau says that, because the minority party will likely back Stephens again, Democratic pickups shouldn't hurt his math.
If anything, Stephens could benefit if Democrats beat Republicans who might support a rival speaker candidate, such as state Senate President Matt Huffman, who is term-limited in the upper chamber but is running uncontested for a House seat this fall.
All these machinations depend on Stephens keeping his supporters in his fold, but Trau reports that it's "evident that they still support the speaker."
• Sacramento, CA Mayor: Almost 93,000 ballots have been tabulated since Sacramento's March 5 nonpartisan primary as of Wednesday afternoon, leaving physician Flojaune Cofer firmly in first place with 28%.
But the fight for second place is much closer: Assemblyman Kevin McCarty holds a 21.8-21.6 edge against former state Sen. Richard Pan, a difference of 162 votes. City Councilman Steve Hansen, who is just behind with 21.2%, conceded Tuesday. The top two vote-getters will face off in November.
The current standings are almost a complete reversal of how things looked right after Election Day, but ballots tabulated over the following days helped propel Cofer from fourth place to first.
Like retiring Mayor Darrell Steinberg, all four candidates identify as Democrats, but there are real differences between them. Cofer, who is the endorsed candidate of the local chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America, ran to the left of her rivals. The Sacramento Bee identifies McCarty as "the second most progressive," with Pan to his right. Hansen, who had the backing of the Sacramento Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and the Sacramento Police Officers Association, was the most moderate of the pack.