• NH-02: Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster unexpectedly announced Wednesday that she would not seek a seventh term representing New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District. Her departure opens up a constituency that Joe Biden carried by a solid 54-45 margin in 2020, but that Republicans haven't given up trying to flip.
Kuster's retirement moves her district from the 42nd most vulnerable Democratic-held seat on Daily Kos Elections' House Vulnerability Index to the 14th spot. This shift means that Kuster's now-open seat, which includes the northern and western parts of the state, now ranks higher than the districts held by prominent Republican targets like Maine Rep. Jared Golden and New Mexico Rep. Gabe Vasquez.
Republicans, however, would need to burn a good deal of money to make a serious play for Kuster's seat. Over three-quarters of the 2nd District is located in the expensive Boston media market, while the balance is split between smaller markets in Burlington, Vermont, and Portland, Maine.
And it may be a while before this race comes into focus. While the Granite State has stubbornly defended its first-in-the-nation presidential primary, its Sept. 10 downballot primary is at the very end of the season. New Hampshire's June 14 candidate filing deadline, likewise, comes after all but three other states.
Kuster, whose great-grandfather served as governor in the early 20th century, grew up in what she described to Roll Call as a family of "liberal Republicans." Her father, Malcolm McLane, was a member of the state's powerful Executive Council, while her mother, Susan McLane, served in both chambers of the state legislature. Susan McLane also ran for the 2nd District in 1980 only to lose the GOP primary to eventual winner Judd Gregg; just behind was Charlie Bass, who would pose a major obstacle to Kuster's rise three decades later.
Kuster herself spent the late 1970s working for California Rep. Pete McCloskey, a liberal Republican who had famously run an anti-war primary challenge against President Richard Nixon in 1972. Kuster, who became a local attorney and healthcare lobbyist, joined the Democratic Party well before her first bid for office and was a prominent supporter of John Kerry and Barack Obama during the 2004 and 2008 presidential primaries.
Kuster got her chance to run for the House in 2010 when Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes left to campaign to succeed Gregg in the Senate, but she had a tough contest ahead of her. While Obama had carried the 2nd District 56-43 two years earlier, both parties recognized that the emerging red wave posed a serious risk to Democrats in this longtime swing state. Republicans also got some welcome news when Bass, a relatively moderate figure who lost reelection to Hodes in 2006, decided to make a comeback and won his primary.
Kuster, who secured her own nomination 71-29 against centrist rival Katrina Swett, waged a well-funded general election campaign and nearly overcame a brutal tide that devastated Democrats coast to cast. But Bass prevailed 48-47 as Republican Kelly Ayotte was clobbering Hodes statewide and the GOP was securing supermajorities in both chambers of the legislature.
Kuster had impressed fellow Democrats, though, and she faced no primary opposition when she ran again in 2012. The political climate was far better for her this time, though Republicans took advantage of a video of Kuster grabbing a camera out of the hands of what her campaign characterized as an "aggressive tracker." The Democrat, however, still beat Bass 50-45 as Obama was winning the 2nd District 54-45.
Republicans targeted Kuster for defeat the following cycle, and multiple national publications ran favorable profiles about her 31-year-old opponent, state Rep. Marilinda Garcia. But Garcia, who dealt with a plagiarism scandal late in the race, did not live up to the hype, and Kuster won 55-45 in another tough year for Democrats.
The congresswoman seemed to be on track for another decisive victory in 2016, but she held off her underfunded foe, former state Rep. Jim Lawrence, by a relatively modest 50-45 spread as Hillary Clinton was carrying the 2nd by a small 49-46 margin. However, Kuster returned to form by easily prevailing in both 2018 and 2020.
Following the most recent census, the Republican majority in the legislature was convinced she was safe going forward, and it planned to make her seat even bluer in order to weaken fellow Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas in the 1st District. GOP Gov. Chris Sununu, though, believed both members were beatable, and his veto threats created an impasse that sent redistricting to the courts and left the map essentially unchanged.
In 2022, Sununu supported Keene Mayor George Hansel, a self-described "pro-choice" candidate, but national Democrats successfully intervened in the primary. Former Hillsborough County Treasurer Robert Burns narrowly outpaced Hansel, and Kuster handily beat him 56-44 in what would turn out to be her final campaign.
• AZ-02: Former Yavapai County Supervisor Jack Smith tells the Sedona Red Rock News that he'll challenge freshman Rep. Eli Crane in the July 30 Republican primary, an announcement that comes a little more than two weeks after he filed paperwork with the state. Donald Trump carried this sprawling seat in northeastern Arizona 53-45 in 2020.
Crane was one of the eight House Republicans who voted to end Kevin McCarthy's speakership last year, but when the paper asked Smith how he'd have voted, he dodged the question by saying, "I wasn’t there." The challenger instead made geography the center of his argument for why he'd do a better job representing this sprawling seat, saying, "Unlike my opponent … I live in a rural setting."