• House: The House Majority PAC, a top Democratic super PAC, just announced that it's booked $146 million worth of fall TV time, an amount larger than all of its general election expenditures in 2022 combined.
The move also makes HMP the first of the "big four" groups that spend heavily on House races to announce ad reservations this year. It's only a matter of time, though, before HMP's allies at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which is the Democrats' official campaign arm, take similar steps. The Democrats' GOP rivals, the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Congressional Leadership Fund—who are themselves sometimes rivals—also won't be far behind.
As is often the case, HMP has broken down its reservations by media market rather than by congressional district. That's because television advertising can only be booked market by market. But since the geographic regions served by particular TV stations rarely correspond with political boundaries (and vice versa), many of these bookings could apply to multiple races.
Fortunately, we can fill in the gaps with our previously published guide showing which districts are in which media markets. We've used that to compile a spreadsheet indicating the likely districts HMP either intends to defend or hopes to flip.
Some of these are a certainty. The only competitive seat that occupies a sizable chunk of the Portland, Maine, media market is Maine's 2nd, red-leaning turf held by Democrat Rep. Jared Golden. But Portland, Oregon, covers all of Oregon's 6th as well as most of Oregon's 5th and Washington's 3rd. We've therefore listed all three of these seats (two Democratic holds and one pickup opportunity in the 5th District) on the corresponding line.
In the case of these multi-district markets, we won't know which race will benefit until the spending actually happens, and that won't be until late summer at the earliest. HMP (or any similarly situated organization) can wait to decide how to allocate its funds based on how it believes individual contests are shaping up. And much like a reservation at a restaurant, a TV reservation can be canceled altogether—something we see from time to time when a PAC or party committee gives up on a race or feels extremely confident.
We'll keep updating our spreadsheet tracking House ad reservations throughout the year as the rest of the "big four" jump in, so bookmark it today.