Alan Brewer, @AlGGDirect reports that more than ninety-seven F-16 strike fighters will be sent to Ukraine via Denmark, Netherlands, Norway and now Greece.
The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) is likely responsible for a drone strike against the Borisoglebsk Airbase in Voronezh Oblast overnight on April 8 to 9. GUR Spokesperson Andriy Yusov told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) that two unspecified drones struck the aviation center in Borisoglebsk, which reportedly trains Russian frontline bomber and attack aviation flight crews, and that preliminary information suggests that the strike damaged unspecified production facilities at the airbase.[12] Ukrainian outlet RBK-Ukraine cited its own source within GUR as confirming that the Borisoglebsk strike was a GUR operation.[13] Geolocated footage published on April 9 shows one drone striking the airbase.[14] Russian sources reported that one Ukrainian drone struck the facade of the Chlakov aviation training center near the airbase and another drone struck the same spot an hour later, only damaging the outside of the building.[15] ISW has not yet observed visual confirmation of the type and extent of damage from the drone strike.
www.understandingwar.org/…
Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on April 8, overnight on April 8 to 9, and on April 9. Ukrainian Zaporizhia Oblast Head Ivan Fedorov reported that Russian forces struck an industrial facility in Zaporizhzhia City with an unspecified missile on April 8.[86] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on April 8 that Russian forces destroyed a warehouse and production workshop for heavy drones in Zaporizhzhia City with an Iskander missile.[87] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched 20 Shahed-136/131 drones from occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai and four S-300 missiles from occupied Donetsk Oblast on the night of April 8 to 9.[88] Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down all of the drones over Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Vinnytsia, and Lviv oblasts. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated that Russian drones targeted critical infrastructure in southern Ukraine, and the Ukrainian Energy Ministry stated that Russian struck energy infrastructure in Poltava and Lviv oblasts.[89] Ukrainian officials reported that Russian unspecified missiles struck civilian infrastructure in Poltava Oblast.[90] The Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs stated that four Russian S-400 missiles struck and damaged civilian infrastructure in Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast overnight, and Donetsk Oblast Head Vadym Filashkin reported that Russian forces conducted airstrikes on Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast with unspecified projectiles.[91] Kharkiv Oblast Head Oleh Synehubov reported that Russian forces struck civilian enterprises near Kharkiv City with KAB bombs.[92] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russia conducted a missile strike, likely with an Iskander-M missile, against a coastal area of Odesa Oblast on the afternoon of April 9.[93]
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- Russian state media highlighted Russia and China’s joint effort to combat perceived Western “dual containment” targeting Russia and China during Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing on April 9.
- US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced on April 9 that it transferred roughly a brigade’s worth of small arms and ammunition seized from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to Ukraine on April 4.
- The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) is likely responsible for a drone strike against the Borisoglebsk Airbase in Voronezh Oblast overnight on April 8 to 9.
- Russian ultranationalist milbloggers continue to employ virulently anti-migrant rhetoric and calls for xenophobic domestic policies, but in doing so are exposing the inherent hypocrisy in Russia’s treatment of its own indigenous ethnic minority communities.
- The Kremlin will likely be able to leverage a new agreement signed by the Kremlin-affiliated governor of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region of Gagauzia, Yevgenia Gutsul, and a state-owned Russian bank to further its efforts to destabilize Moldovan society, attack Moldova’s democratic government, and prevent Moldova’s accession to the European Union (EU).
- Russia is reportedly considering creating a new ministry for youth policy and patriotic education, likely as part of an ongoing attempt to instill pro-Kremlin and Kremlin-approved ideology in Russia’s next generation.
- Russian military authorities in Armenia detained another Russian citizen in Armenia, likely in an effort to assert military and political power over Armenia and to challenge Armenia’s sovereignty amid a continued deterioration of Armenian–Russian relations.
- Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna, west of Avdiivka, and south and southwest of Donetsk City on April 9.
- Kremlin officials continue efforts to ease public fears about another possible wave of partial mobilization.
- The Russian occupation regime in Crimea is systematically persecuting clergy and parishes affiliated with the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU) in occupied Crimea.
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Positional fighting continued near Bakhmut on April 9, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. .... The Ukrainian Khortysia Group of Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn stated that Russian forces continue high numbers of infantry assaults east of Chasiv Yar and that Russian forces transport infantry on infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) to conduct dismounted assaults on Ukrainian positions with artillery and air support.[53] Positional fighting continued northeast of Bakhmut near Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, and Rozdolivka; west of Bakhmut near Novyi (immediately east of Chasiv Yar); and southwest of Bakhmut near Stupochky, Klishchiivka and Andriivka.[54] Elements of the Russian 11th Airborne (VDV) Brigade are reportedly fighting south of Chasiv Yar, and elements of the 98th VDV Division and either the “Hispaniola” Volunteer Assault Brigade (Russian Volunteer Corps) or the “Hispaniola” private military company (PMC) are reportedly fighting east of Chasiv Yar.[55] Elements of the Russian 150th Motorized Rifle Division (8th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly operating in the general Bakhmut direction.[56]
Russian forces recently advanced west of Avdiivka and likely captured Pervomaiske (southwest of Avdiivka) as of April 9. Geolocated footage published on April 9 shows elements of the Russian 9th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Donetsk People’s Republic [DNR] Army Corps [AC]) raising a flag in western Pervomaiske, and Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured the settlement after Ukrainian forces withdrew.[61]… Additional geolocated footage published on April 9 shows that Russian forces advanced in fields northeast of Netaylove (immediately west of Pervomaiske).[63] ... Fighting also continued northwest of Avdiivka near Novobakhmutivka and Berdychi; west of Avdiivka near Umanske; and southwest of Avdiivka near Nevelske.[65] A Ukrainian soldier operating in the Avdiivka direction stated that Russian forces are attempting to take Semenivka by attacking in groups of five to seven infantrymen both from the east and from the north.[66] The soldier stated that Russian forces have not conducted a mechanized attack near Semenivka in recent days and usually use IFVs to transport small infantry groups to the frontline for infantry-led ground assaults. The soldier also stated that the Russian VKS conducts 25-30 KAB glide bomb strikes per day in the Avdiivka direction. Elements of the Russian 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd CAA, Central Military District [CMD]) are reportedly fighting in Berdychi; elements of the 30th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd CAA, CMD) are reportedly fighting in Semenivka and to the south near Orlivka; elements of the Russian 1st Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st DNR AC) supported by elements of the 428th Motorized Rifle Regiment, which is reportedly attached to the 90th Tank Division, and 6th Tank Regiment ( 90th Tank Division, 41st CAA, CMD) are reportedly fighting in the Tonenke-Umanske and Orlivka-Umanske directions; and elements of the 110th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st DNR AC) are reportedly fighting in Nevelske.[67]
US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced on April 9 that it transferred roughly a brigade’s worth of small arms and ammunition seized from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to Ukraine on April 4. CENTCOM reported that the US government transferred over 5,000 AK-47s, machine guns, sniper rifles, RPG-7s and over 500,000 rounds of 7.62mm ammunition to the Ukrainian military.[9] CENTCOM stated that it obtained these munitions on December 1, 2023 through a Department of Justice (DoJ) civil forfeiture claim opened against the IRGC in July 2023.[10] CNN reported that CENTCOM had already transferred over one million rounds of seized IRGC ammunition to Ukraine as of October 2023.[11]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Russia has been ramping up its propaganda operations as part of a second front that current and former senior Western officials said has become almost as important for Moscow as the military campaign in Ukraine — especially as congressional approval for further aid has become critical for Kyiv’s ability to continue defending itself.
“It is Russia’s top priority to stop the weapons, so they are throwing things at the wall to see what sticks,” said one Republican staffer on Capitol Hill. “We are seeing a broad-based campaign that has multiple lines of effort, some of which work better than others. The Russians don’t care. They are just trying to seed the environment.” The staffer and other Western officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive assessments.
The campaign has attempted to paint Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as corrupt, emphasized the numbers of migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border, called for border security to be funded over any aid to Ukraine, and described “white Americans” as the principal losers because of foreign aid, the documents show.
The strategy promotes views from the far-right wing of the Republican Party and calls for some of the messaging to be voiced by American “public opinion leaders and politicians,” one of the documents shows, but it does not name any people who could be enlisted to do that.
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