Ashley Ehasz isn’t a well-known name in Democratic politics like some of the other challengers to the #Beatable16. For instance, she hasn’t yet been added to the Red to Blue program that highlights candidates the DCCC thinks are critical to successfully winning back the House of Representatives. This former Apache helicopter pilot refuses to be written off, as her 2022 launch video shows.
Ehasz ran for this seat in 2022 and didn’t get much institutional support for her run. Things are different this year, as she is getting noticed in her second attempt to take down an electoral juggernaut in Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick. The question is whether or not Ashley Ehasz can succeed in taking him down when others have failed to lay a glove on the incumbent.
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Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is part of what I am calling the #Beatable16. These Republicans reside in districts that Biden won in 2020. Ashley Ehasz is one of the 16 Democratic candidates in the Beatable16 fund that I am fundraising for.
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Ashley Ehasz for Pennsylvania-1
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What’s The Big Idea?
The landslide vote for PA-01 in 2022.
THIS DISTRICT IS LIKELY REPUBLICAN, with an EVEN PVI
This district (which used to be the 8th district) has roughly had the same boundaries for a while now. Bucks County has been the anchor for the district, and it is usually paired with either northeastern Philadelphia or parts of Montgomery County. In recent times, the area has been home to a swing seat that usually leans in favor of the Democratic Party. Both Clinton and Biden narrowly won it, with Biden reaching a 51.8% to 47.2% margin.
The denizens of the district may vote Democratic for President, but they have shown a clear preference for Republican members of Congress. The only time they have sent a Democratic representative to Congress recently was during the late GW Bush era and early Obama era, from 2006-2010. Rep. Patrick Murphy was seen as a rising star in the party. Before then, the last time a Democrat represented this area was before 1992.
2010 was a red wave election, and it brought Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick back into the seat he lost in 2006. The Fitzpatrick family has held the seat ever since, and they seemingly have become entrenched in the district. Even the 2018 blue wave election couldn’t unseat current Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (the brother of Mike Fitzpatrick). That is why it is a Likely Republican race — the Fitzpatrick brothers are what is left of the moderate faction of the GOP and get a significant crossover vote. The margin in 2022 was 54.9% to 45.1%, which puts Ashley Ehasz at a significant deficit.
This district has a few regions that are blue, and a few regions that are red. It is a finely poised district located in the white middle class suburbs of Philadelphia. Unlike the other suburbs, these denizens have yet to adopt voting for Democratic candidates down the ticket. Fitzpatrick will be a tough out.
Here’s where this race will be won in the 1st district.
- Southern Bucks County: This area includes suburbs such as Levittown, Bristol, and Bensalem. While not significantly blue, this is an area that Ehasz has to do well in if she is to oust Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick. Failure to reach the Biden margins would spell disaster.
- Middle Bucks County: This region (which includes part of Montgomery County) includes the areas surrounding Doylestown and Lambertville. Once again, the area is not overwhelmingly blue, but it did favor Biden over Trump. Ehasz needs to do well here as well to have a shot.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
- Northern Bucks County: The northern part of this district is red, including the northeastern corner of Montgomery County. Ehasz will definitely contest the cities out this far, but many of the townships are not as likely to support her. Maintaining the Biden margins is the key.
- Northampton and Southampton Townships: These areas are part of southern Bucks County, and they are as red as northern Bucks County. Trump got around 55% of the vote in this area, and Fitzpatrick likely got more. Ehasz has her work cut out for her in this area of the district.
Who is Ashley Ehasz?
Ehasz overcame a rough beginning to life to run for Congress.
Ashley Ehasz grew up in tough circumstances, with her family as a child facing moving frequently, substance abuse issues, and mental health challenges. She saw the U.S. Army as a means of escape from the noose of poverty threatening to strangle her chances. In high school, her next door neighbor was a teacher whose son attended the United States Air Force Academy and that teacher helped her put an application together because he saw some potential in her. She graduated from West Point in 2010 and then became an Apache helicopter pilot for 10 years.
Upon graduating from West Point, I was commissioned as a Second Lieutenant within the U.S. Army Aviation branch. My first duty station was Fort Rucker, Alabama, where I attended flight school and trained to become an AH-64D Apache Longbow helicopter pilot. I graduated in January 2012 as the only woman in my Apache class.
From there, I was stationed in Fort Bliss, Texas, with the 4th Battalion, 501st Aviation Regiment. I served as a platoon leader in both a line unit and an aviation maintenance unit, deploying to Kuwait under Operation Spartan Shield. Later, as the battalion logistics officer and pilot-in-command, I deployed once again to Kuwait and Camp Taji, Iraq, with Operation Inherent Resolve. I then commanded two aviation troops, including an aviation maintenance troop, with the 1st Squadron, 6th Cavalry Regiment out of Fort Riley, Kansas, from where I also deployed to South Korea in 2017.
It was during her time in the armed forces that she developed an interest in studying foreign policy and chose to dedicate her post-military career to international development and humanitarian service. To further this goal, Ashley most recently graduated from the University of Oxford in July 2020 with a Master of Philosophy in Development Studies. She used the GI Bill to help pay for this otherwise very expensive study, having to still take out a large amount of federal student loans to attend Oxford. She acted as a policy coordinator for the implementation of the CARES Act and as a consultant in the years since graduating.
The most important issue Ashley Ehasz can vote on is making Rep. Hakeem Jeffries the Speaker of the House. That’s not to say she’s weak on the issues, as the issues page on her campaign website demonstrates.
- Abortion Rights Ally. It is this issue where Ehasz draws the biggest contrast between her and Rep. Fitzpatrick. She rightfully points out that this issue determines the futures of women and families. She would vote to codify Roe v. Wade into law, and also vote into law protections for IVF, contraception, and birth control.
- Defending Democracy. January 6th was a turning point in her career, as the Constitution she swore to defend came under direct attack from Trump’s mob. She is a vote for the John Lewis VRA and other measures to guarantee the right to vote. She also is concerned with getting money out of politics and overturning Citizens United to put a stop to dark money.
- Celebrating Diversity. In the Army, no one gave a damn about your background so long as you were able to complete the task at hand. Ehasz knows that diversity is a strength. She would work on broadening anti-discrimination laws for PoC and the ADA for those with disabilities. She would also protect LGBTQ+ people from so-called “religious liberty” exceptions.
- Gun Safety Champion. Ehasz is a supporter of universal background checks to keep guns out of the hands of those who cannot responsibly bear them. She also supports safe storage laws so that weapons stay out of reach of children and those not trained. Finally, she would treat gun violence as a public health crisis worthy of study.
- Immigration Supporter. Ehasz supports the bipartisan border security legislation that was torpedoed by Trump. She also supports a pathway to citizenship for those who have proven not to be a threat. She would vote to streamline the asylum process and protect DACA recipients who migrated here through no fault of their own.
- Education Advocate. Ehasz supports the efforts Biden is taking to eliminate or reduce student debt, and then adds concepts of her own such as capping interest rates and monthly payments. She would be an advocate for pushing for colleges to lower costs for students in any manner possible. Finally, this teacher’s heart is warmed by her call to regulate charter schools in the same fashion as public schools.
- Climate Crisis. Ehasz views the climate crisis as a national security issue, especially as resources dwindle due to climate change. This is an opportunity to bring green jobs to every corner of America, as well as reduce the carbon footprint of our country. Ehasz would support research in cutting-edge technologies to reverse or at least mitigate the climate crisis.
- Health Care Helper. Ehasz would vote to expand the Affordable Care Act but does not go into specifics on what that means. She argues that the government has a role in drug research and promoting generic alternatives to brand-name drugs to save money. She would work on the opioid crisis by making addiction and mental health centers more accessible.
- Corporate Accountability. Ehasz takes a page out of the Bernie Sander playbook by calling for increased regulations on the banking industry and other corporations. She would vote for the imposition of the Glass-Steagall Act and other measures to prevent the boom and bust financial cycle that ruins many regular citizens.
Who is Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick?
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is one of the couple remaining genuine moderate Republicans left.
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick has lived in SE Pennsylvania his entire life. He got his MBA and law degree from Penn State University. He was in the FBI, being stationed in various locales worldwide including in Iraq during Operation Iraqi Freedom. His brother preceded him in Congress, having pledged only to serve for four terms.
Since he is more moderate than almost every other Republican colleague, this list is extremely tough to generate. His DW Nominate score pegs him as the most liberal Republican remaining in the House. His issues page almost reads as a moderate Democratic incumbent. That attracts more conservative challengers — but he has brushed them aside so far with more than 60% of the primary vote.
- Forced Birth Maniac. The issue of abortion rights is the issue where Fitzpatrick is the most vulnerable. He has voted for a nationwide abortion ban, issuing a press release stating it is a “good starting point”. He also voted against the Women’s Health Protection Act. In 2019, he urged President Trump to veto any bill that weakens anti-abortion policy.
- Trump Impeachment Opponent. Fitzpatrick’s claim to being moderate falls apart when it comes to his interactions with former President Trump. He voted against impeaching Trump twice, including after the heinous 1/6 insurrection. This undoes his vote for approving the 1/6 Commission and being the only member of the GOP to commemorate the second anniversary of the attack.
- Biden Impeachment. Fitzpatrick voted to continue the baseless fishing expedition impeachment inquiry into President Biden. This partisan move shows that even the most moderate member of the GOP will go MAGA Republican when it comes to impeaching Biden. As a reminder, this inquiry relies on an FBI informant who has been indicted for lying.
- Speaker Debacle. Fitzpatrick may be the most moderate member of the GOP remaining, but just like Sen. Susan Collins, all of his votes reflect when it doesn’t matter to the final result. One place where his vote mattered was selecting Mike Johnson as Speaker. While Mike Johnson hasn’t been as terrible as first feared, he still controls the House agenda and squelches legislation Fitzpatrick claims to support.
- Debt and Deficit Peacock. Fitzpatrick writes on his campaign website that he supports a Balanced Budget Amendment, which would require draconian cuts to all government services or drastic tax increases. His vote on the Trump tax cuts shows that he isn’t serious about the deficit, as he voted YEA for these budget-busting tax cuts.
How Can You Help?
At the federal level, this is probably one of the most critical districts in the entire country. Biden and Sen. Casey need to do well in this district to win the state of Pennsylvania, and Ashley Ehasz will likely need their coattails to win. Organizing in this district is paramount, and to do that we need exposure and the funds to succeed.
Ehasz is doing a LOT better in the fundraising department than she did in 2022. She raised a decent $668k for the Q1 fundraising period, and she has $820k in cash on hand. Part of the reason Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is a juggernaut is that he can raise a lot of dollars. He raised $949k in Q1, and he’s sitting on a $3.65M dollar war chest. Ehasz won’t catch up to Fitzpatrick, but she can clearly raise enough cash to run the campaign to knock him out. Donate to Ehasz today!
Being in a key region of a key swing state is both a blessing and a curse to Ehasz in terms of volunteers. The area will get an outsized amount of attention from the Biden and Casey campaigns, but that means that volunteers strictly devoted to her campaign may be at a premium. She will need canvassers to help persuade those crossover voters to select her along with Biden and Casey. It is those crossover voters that will make or break the Ehasz-Fitzpatrick race.
When it comes to social media, Ashley Ehasz has a robust operation on Twitter. She has 12.2k followers on this social media platform, which is a great place to be in terms of being a challenger. Perhaps this is responsible for her better fundraising totals this time around. In another data point to show how different this run is from the last one, here’s another nugget about her donation prowess.
On Facebook, her presence is a growing one. She has 1.7k followers on the Meta platform, which shows growth from her last run but also an area that could further improve. Ehasz has been very active in the canvassing and door-knocking operation in Bucks County. Hopefully, this will make a huge difference in the race come the fall!
Help spread the word today by following Ashley Ehasz and boosting her campaign in the critical realm of social media.
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick has a strong brand in this district, and he can rightfully be called a moderate Republican by the standards of the GOP today. He still has vulnerabilities in his record, but there just aren’t as many of them as your typical MAGA politician. Those are the reasons why no prominent local politician has decided to go toe-to-toe with him in spite of him living in a Biden district.
Ashley Ehasz, to her credit, is doing better this time around than in her previous run. She’s raising more money, getting the right endorsements, and pounding Fitzpatrick on the right issues. Daily Kos Elections rates this as the 20th most likely GOP seat to flip, meaning she has a chance. With the Presidential vote likely to go narrowly to Biden yet again, the question is whether or not she can take down the Fitzpatrick juggernaut.
Ashley Ehasz for Pennsylvania-1
Campaign Website | Facebook | Twitter | Instagram | YouTube | DONATE | Volunteer
Let's take back the House by targeting the 16 districts that Biden won in 2020 that have R reps! That brings us to the Beatable16 Fund! Please donate and then share a link to this site on your social media! #Beatable16