This poll is the first of its kind this elections cycle that I’ve seen. Link. FYI, YouGov is top rated by 538, so there’s that.
It’s only one poll, and there’s no information published yet what the poll considers “battlegrounds.” Correction: The data includes an oversample in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. [Thanks to Satya 1]. Still , this is very nice, and fits into the larger pattern most of us are looking for. Namely,
Moreover, we see this dynamic again in how people frame their vote decision, along the lines of whether this election is a referendum or a choice.
When people say this election is just about their view on T****, most vote for Mr. Biden.
However, when people instead see this race as a judgment just on Mr. Biden, they vote for T****.
As many here and elsewhere have pointed out, for many of those polled this far out from the election, it is more a thumbs up/thumbs down how people feel things are going at the time of the poll. That is, the polling can function for many as a spot referendum on Biden, and even how they feel in general about things at that time, more than how they plan to vote, if at all, this November.
But as the election gets closer, the polling will become more a choice between the two candidates.
That is the idea, and T*** has made it pretty clear his plan to make it all about him. What’s more,
This probably the first presidential election in history in which the parties are not offering their competing visions for the future. Instead, they are offering competing visions of the past.
electoral-vote.com. Link
I don’t know if I completely agree with the nice folks over at electoral-vote. Seems to me that much of what we’ve been fighting about for a very long time has been precisely about our competing visions of the past. With things like, oh, I dunno, slavery.
But that is not really the point here. T**** clearly wants to make this election all about him, and his grievances.
And that is just fine and dandy with me, ‘cause it plays to our strengths.