• CA-49: A new poll from SurveyUSA shows Democratic Rep. Mike Levin with a 50-40 lead against his Republican foe, businessman Matt Gunderson, as respondents favor Joe Biden 47-42. Biden carried the 49th District, which is based in southern Orange and northern San Diego counties, by a larger 55-43 spread four years ago.
This poll, which was conducted for KGTV-TV San Diego and the San Diego Union-Tribune, is the first independent survey we've seen since Levin and Gunderson advanced out of the top-two primary in early March. The only other numbers released over the ensuing three months came from a Gunderson internal from 1892 Polling that showed Levin up just 44-42 in April.
So far, major outside groups are not acting as though they believe this contest will be competitive. Neither the pro-Democratic House Majority PAC nor the conservative Congressional Leadership Fund have booked any general election TV time for the San Diego media market, which is home to more than two-thirds of the 49th District's denizens. (The balance resides in the Los Angeles market.)
• MI-04: The House Ethics Committee last week closed its five-year-long investigation into allegations that GOP Rep. Bill Huizenga improperly used campaign cash to pay for trips last week without issuing any punishment.
Investigators determined that the congressman's "campaign had inadequate recordkeeping practices" that led him to violate the chamber's code of conduct, but they concluded he had not "engaged in clear personal use of campaign funds." The Committee also pledged to "refresh its guidance to the House community on these issues based on lessons learned from this and other matters."
The Huizenga probe began in 2018 and attracted more attention the next year when the Committee announced further action, but the matter largely faded from the news over the ensuing years. Huizenga currently represents the 4th District, a seat in southwestern Michigan that Donald Trump carried 51-47 in 2020.
• VA-10: Analyst Rob Pyers flags that the crypto-aligned super PAC Protect Progress has now spent almost $4 million to help Del. Dan Helmer ahead of next week's Democratic primary, with $1.2 million of that being deployed this week.
Helmer, who served in the Army, has also benefited from $1.3 million in support from VoteVets. These two groups represent most of the outside spending in the contest to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton.
The largest expenditure for any of Helmer's rivals is the $500,000 that the Indian American Impact Fund has spent to help state Sen. Suhas Subramanyam, who is Wexton's preferred successor. Subramanyam would be both Virginia's first Indian American and Hindu House member.
• WI State Assembly: State Assembly Speaker Robin Vos got some welcome news Tuesday when his sole intra-party opponent, conservative writer Andrew Cegielski, announced he was dropping out of the Aug. 13 Republican primary because of "circumstances beyond my control." Cegielski, whose name will remain on the ballot, ended his campaign just over a week after candidate filing closed.
Far-right groups, however, still haven't given up trying to remove Vos from office. Big Lie proponents submitted signatures in late May to place a recall on the ballot, a move that came weeks after election officials ruled that their first attempt lacked the requisite number of signatures. The Wisconsin Elections Commission has until June 28 to determine if this second attempt can move forward.
No matter what happens next, however, hardliners likely won't give up trying to prevent Vos from winning in November. The speaker faces independent Kelly Clark, who aided the second recall campaign, as well as Democrat Al Kupsik, who is a former mayor of Lake Geneva. The seat the three candidates are seeking, the 33rd District, favored Donald Trump 63-35 in 2020.