We can all cut off slices of the oil market in the Death of Carbon by a Billion Cuts, maybe with an EV, but definitely with a local political campaign for electric school buses and such, or a college or pension fund divestment campaign, or zoning requirements, or an occasional boycott. Bigger slices are coming off all the time as we approach Peak Oil in a few years. This is not the old Hubbert idea that we would run out of oil, but the new idea of leaving it in the ground.
The IEA forecasts global oil demand will peak in 2029 at 105.6m barrels per day, up a modest 2.4m barrels per day from this years’ estimate of 103.2m barrels per day, Over five years, this represents what analysts at brokers Poten & Partners described as “anaemic” annual average growth of 500,000 barrels per day.
The bulk of this demand growth, as expected will come from India and China, and other emerging Asian nations,
The key drivers behind the decline in oil demand are the shift towards electric vehicles and the substitution of oil with gas or renewables in the power sector. According to the IEA, the growing penetration of electric vehicles will displace 6m barrels per day of gasoline and diesel demand by 2030.
All in all, I wish we had discovered water instead.
Attributed to Saudi Oil Minister Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani
EVs
See also IRA subsidies.
Cars, vans, trucks, police cars, ambulances, garbage trucks, recycling trucks, school buses, military tanks…
The public did a great job of pushing the USPS to buy lots of electric mail delivery vans.
The Tipping Point In Global Oil Demand
60% of oil is used in transportation.
Fuel savings by 2040 are expected to be 21.42 MMBD compared to the 100 MMBD global oil demand in 2022.
The article cites a variety of sources suggesting that Peak Oil could occur anywhere from 2025 (Statista) to 2045 (OPEC). I don’t care about the exact date, just as long as we can be sure that it is coming, and think of ways to speed it up, like a carbon tax, so that our current benighted market analysts and politicians don’t get to say when.
Replacing Oil Heaters
See also IRA subsidies.
Canada
USA
The National Oilheat Research Alliance aggressively pushes biofuels for home heating, and lies about heat pumps, among other things.
Plastics
There is a lot of ferment in the world of bio-degradable and compostable plastics, but beware. When you hear from corporations about how wonderful their products are, demand to see the tests. When scientists make broad claims, demand peer-reviewed data.
Is biodegradable plastic compostable plastic?
Generally speaking, not in your home compost pile.
Ships
Tugboats, ferries, short-haul freight carriers, megayachts…
Electrek: Electric ships
Aircraft
BuiltIn: What Are Electric Planes?
Startups are piloting battery-powered aircraft for a variety of use cases
Training craft, air taxis, regional aircraft first, then longer range as weight comes down and power density increases. Batteries currently weight about 40 times as much as jet fuel.
US Air Force Testing Brand New $4 Million Fully Electric Aircraft
The paper: The Carbon Footprint of Conference Papers
The action required to stem the environmental and social implications of climate change depends crucially on how humankind shapes technology, economy, lifestyle and policy. With transport CO2 emissions accounting for about a quarter of the total, we examine the contribution of CO2 output by scientific travel. Thankfully for the reputation of the scientific community, CO2 emissions associated with the trips required to present a paper at a scientific conference account for just 0.003% of the yearly total.
Next question: How much carbon reduction do we get from such papers? What’s the ROI?
Denial
Greenwashing
Greenwashing optics? Exxon Mobil TV Commercial, 'Carbon Capture'.
ExxonMobil runs an amazing quantity of greenwashing ads at the beginning of YouTube videos, cementing the hatred for the company among informed users. I am considering a message I might put into comments on such videos, explaining why I won’t share them.