[Disclaimer: In case the following comes across as dismissive, most of you know me, I’m a lifelong Democrat and generous (probably too generous) donor and supporter. I’m hoping and praying and data-watching and doing what I can to ensure that Biden will defeat Trump in November. ]
We are having this June 27 Presidential Debate on CNN because... Tradition. Because we do. Because it’s so enshrined, that to decline to debate is to come across as a coward. So no one ever declines, and so it keeps happening. It’s like America has somewhat deluded itself into believing that a candidate’s ability to “give good debate” and to possess telegenic savvy, tells us a lot about how effective or successful they’ll be as CEO of the Government of the USA. (It doesn’t.) So here we go again.
I hope Trump humiliates himself “bigly” before a national audience — either by raving dementia-onset incoherence, or a glowering self-obsessed anger that engulfs him, or WTF extremism on key issues, or a combo of these, or some new wild-card... who the hell knows. I’m sure we all hope for Trump’s undoing, live, on the public stage. The possibility is quite real, and that alone is worth tuning in for.
That said — there are two reasons this debate is not likely to change anything.
(1) The first, and most obvious to me, is precedent.
In 2016 we had a series of Clinton vs Trump debates. Looking at the 2016 polling throughout the cycle, it appears that the debates did not do anything at all to alter the shape of the race.
In 2020 we had a series of Biden vs Trump debates. Looking at the 2020 polling throughout the cycle, it appears that the debates did not do anything at all to alter the shape of the race.
And here we go again. It is a reasonable assumption that, as before, unless Trump really implodes on the stage, the 2024 debates will likely not alter the shape of the race. Especially since this contest is a “retread” of the same exact matchup that Americans tuned in to watch in 2020. (This is also the first “retread” Presidential election we’ve had since 1956, and may Biden walk in President Dwight “Ike” Eisenhower’s footsteps!)
(2) The second reason — and I think it’s a blind spot among many here — is that Joe Biden at age 81 is elderly. Not just old. Elderly. Now, Donald Trump at age 78 is elderly too. But they show their age in different ways. Trump may bray incoherence but he does it with more vigor and force than the halting, careful way Biden speaks.
The WSJ ran an article recently that was derided, rightly, in here as a “hit piece” — quoting various Republicans in leadership who said Biden seems more forgetful and less sharp now, in meetings. But is there not some likely truth there? Who among us with aging parents in their late 70s and early 80s can say that our parents haven’t aged much in the past four years.
For a sobering contrast, watch some footage of vigorous VP candidate Joe Biden at age 65 debating VP candidate Sarah Palin, back in 2008. Then watch the 2020 debate footage, Biden vs Trump, and remind yourself that that was Biden at age 77, and now he’s 81. Time takes its toll upon us all.
Consider how many Americans are seeing this race. Two old men. Two very old men. That will come across tomorrow night. Trump is likely to babble and rave with narcissistic rage and demented gusto and lose the plot entirely. Biden is likely to halt, hesitate, forget a fact, reach for the wrong word. And that is what most Americans will see.
It is not difficult to imagine few Americans changing their minds tomorrow night unless Trump absolutely melts down.
I actually hope Joe Biden “goes there” about his age and reminds us all that — as I’m fond of saying — we do not just elect a President. We elect an administration. Biden’s administration has been superb and it is one of his strongest and most successful attributes as our current US President. Trump, in contrast, had an administration that was mired in dysfunction by design, had constant drama and turnover, persons wholly unqualified to lead what they were leading (Ben Carson for example), and worse, was stocked full of malevolent types who sought to damage, if not dismantle, the very branch of government that Trump put them in charge of.
I hope Biden makes that point and really hammers it. It is one of the most important.
But all in all — it is likely that the debate will come and go. I predict Trump’s sentencing as a convicted felon on July 11 and the following GOP convention July 15-18 will likely have a bit more of an impact.