Hello, everyone. Good morning, afternoon or evening, and welcome to this edition of Notes from South Asia. You can find all the articles in the series here (along with my other diaries).
Every day a new violence on Muslims; homes demolished, men lynched, people attacked by mobs or arrested with just a claim that they have beef. The opposition says not a word. The rest of us are tired and are asking them to speak up. After all, that is why we voted for them. Articles on unemployment, evolution of politics in Kashmir round up stories from India. On Afghanistan, we have stories about UN normalisation of Taliban and on Myanmar, we have civil war updates.
India
Opposition Running Scared
Alishan Jafri writes for the Quint that Opposition's Silence on Hate Crimes Against Muslims Will Prove Counterproductive
What has actually anguished many Muslims and other secular-minded citizens is the Opposition’s response to these hate crimes. The secular parties, for whom Muslims voted in a totally one-sided way, have maintained radio silence on these crimes. It won't be an exaggeration to call this a betrayal. Muslims voted for the Opposition to reclaim their citizenship from constant attacks. Muslims voted this way to put a halt to the mobs ambushing their dignity. For Muslims, this was largely a vote for safety and a veto against hate. But the Opposition is still scared to call a spade a spade even in vague and abstract terms, fearing that speaking up for Muslims might push away their Hindu votes.
One can't be sure if this strategy will get them any new Hindu votes, but the Opposition must not think that Muslim voters will endure their silence for a long time and vote for them, election after election, only to be betrayed, especially when their disillusionment and fatigue are increasing every day. Despite this, It is still inaccurate to think that there is no change with the BJP losing over 60 seats and falling below the majority mark.
A BJP with 303 or 370 seats would have fastened the process of Muslim marginalisation through majoritarian legislation similar to what we saw between 2019 and 2024. For the Muslims, it's time to reassert their place in India's democracy and reclaim their robbed sense of belonging to the nation. This is the time for pressure politics and to not let their votes go in vain.
For the Opposition, It's not only cowardly and immoral but also a strategic blunder to look away from the Muslims’ cry for help. The Opposition needs to understand that anti-Muslim hatred is the ultimate weapon in the BJP’s arsenal, using which they have deflected attention from almost every issue that the opposition tried to raise in the last ten years. It's true that Modi's stature has taken a massive body blow, and there is a very slim possibility that he can bounce back from this, but we can't say the same for Hindutva politics, which can very well escalate from here.
Hindutva is still the most dominant ideology in India today. Had it not been true, then the Opposition would be in a position to speak up for Muslims. Anti-Muslim hatred is not only a political issue but also a social malaise. From films to memes to merchandise, there's no dearth of material evidence to show that it is the lifeblood of the entire right-wing creator economy. Modi or no Modi, the genie is out of the bottle, and it's an uphill task to disincentivise this hostility. However, it is crucial to do so.
Conrad Barwa on the silence of Indian National Congress’ (INC’s) senior leadership on the subject of hate crimes against Muslims, especially when some of the incidents in the past couple of weeks took place in Congress governed states.
In several press conferences as well interviews to media, Rahul Gandhi offered an interpretation of the general election results as one where the electorate had rejected the politics of communal hatred and violence and posited a desire for something better, with bold statements such as “The party that spent the last 10 years talking about Ayodhya has been wiped out in Ayodhya. Essentially what has happened is that the basic architecture of BJP — the idea of creating religious hatred — that has collapsed.” While detractors may dismiss this as political posturing and a misinterpretation of what the election results meant, in terms of the desires of the electorate, having taken such a strong stand, it must be followed through. Any vacillation or reluctance will be seen as an indication that both Rahul Gandhi and Congress do not actually believe their own rhetoric particularly by those who put their faith in the INDIA alliance and voted for them in the polls in the general election. There was a considerable consolidation of votes by certain groups behind the INDIA alliance, such as the non-Jatav Dalit castes in UP, in the case of Muslims the CSDS-Lokniti poll date approximate that an estimated 63% of the Muslim were garnered by them at the national level, rising to very high levels such as 92% in UP. The hope and trust that these groups have placed in the Opposition and their promise of a different kind of politics, one free from communal hatred, is a heavy burden to bear but one which must nonetheless be shouldered. The BJP’s main advantage is that it is very clear about what it stands for and it is not at all reticent in proclaiming it loudly, it knows how to fire up its base and supporters and it has a set playbook which it has shown it will continue to adhere to, despite the electoral setbacks it received in the elections. Congress and its leadership must do the same, otherwise they run the risk of demoralising and demotivating their core constituencies that had placed such great trust in them, which will have an adverse impact in the upcoming state assembly elections later this year in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, both of which will be eagerly watched to see which side will gain the advantage. Keeping the social coalition which voted for it together and maintaining its political support will be vital for the Congress if it is to continue its improved electoral performance and enable the transformation of a different kind of politics on the ground.
And as he says, silence is complicity.
To this end, it has to live up to its lofty rhetoric about combating communal hatred and religious violence, it has to unapologetically take up the cause of those groups which are being targeted for their religious identity; it has to be not only content with mouthing orotund platitudes about the constitution and secularism but also vocally and confidently reassuring vulnerable communities whether they are Muslims or Dalits, that it will stand by them and is an effective representative for their interests. This is not only a wise political strategy but a necessary social necessity and most importantly a moral imperative. Remaining silent can no longer be an option. For as Martin Luther King Jr. commented, “In the end, we will remember not the words of our enemies, but the silence of our friends.”
When you see powerful people executing violence on those without power and you stay silent or equivocate (“All Lives Matter”), it is complicity. Silence is complicity. It will erode your ethics and morality and will some day extract its price. Perhaps though, you will not then have enough of a conscience to know that you have lost something irreplaceable.
Oh, well.
Unemployment Crisis
A lot of people who write hate messages on twitter and Facebook or even go around beating up Christians in Tribal areas and Muslims everywhere else are paid by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and their affiliates. You could say hate is BJP’s answer to our unemployment problem brought about by their crony capitalism and lack of imagination. But only so many people can take up the career of hate. Sabah Gurmat writes for Article-14 about India’s millions of unemployed youth.
Six months after a 38-year-old woman from Haryana was arrested on terror charges for a security breach in Parliament that was meant to draw attention to the unemployment crisis in India, we found out more about her struggle to find a job despite a postgraduate education and about other young people with college degrees who are looking for unskilled work or desperately trying to leave the country by any means possible. The ILO says 103.4 million, or one in every three youths, is not in education, employment, or training. Their distress and misery may have cost the BJP a majority in the recently concluded general election. Experts suggested the government should consider transparency in admitting the extent of the problem, creating jobs locally, and giving an Opposition “apprenticeship” scheme a try.
The percentage of unemployed youth in the total unemployment figures is very high.
In 2017-18, overall unemployment in India touched 6.1%, the highest in 45 years. According to the International Labour Organization (ILO), the share of unemployed youth in the total unemployed population was 82.9% in 2022.
In a paper published in 2023, the Center for Monitoring the Indian Economy (CMIE) said the youth unemployment rate (between ages 15 to 24) was “shockingly high” at 45.4%.
In May 2024, a paper by the statistics ministry said that the problem of underemployment in the country was “surprisingly high” at 62.28%.
Underemployment occurs when a worker is employed in a job that is not commensurate with their level of skills, training, or education or when their capacity is underused by not offering them total hours or adequate work or leaving them idle.
“India’s youth unemployment rate was already high, at around 15% in 2005. What is worrying is that it has continued to rise and reached the shocking 25.9% by 2018,” said Kaushik Basu, India’s chief economic advisor from 2009 to 2012, who is currently teaching at Cornell University. “Recent data released by the CMIE suggest matters have worsened, with youth unemployment reaching 45.4% in 2022-23.”
Given that many young people are “in education” because there are no jobs, Basu said, “If they were (counted), unemployment levels might be even higher. This makes the situation particularly alarming.”
Basu said the classic problem of crony capitalism is where aggregate GDP grows even while the bottom half of the population sees their real incomes stall or fall.
“India used to be a global leader in data collection and transparency. Unfortunately, we are not releasing data and damaging this great statistical tradition to deflect attention from what is happening at the grassroots level,” he said.
Basu said the government could take ideas from the opposition manifestos, including the Congress Party’s apprenticeship program, which guarantees placement with government, public or private firms for all persons below 25 years of age who hold a graduate degree or diploma, promising them ₹1 lakh stipend for a year.
Educated youth such as the person who went to parliament and distributed posters and was arrested for it are among the worst affected in the unemployment crisis.
In its ‘India Employment Report 2024: Youth Employment, Education and Skills’ report, the ILO estimated that at least 103.4 million of the country’s 371 million youth population fell under the “Not in Education, Employment, or Training” or “NEET.” One in every three youths in India is neither under-employed nor pursuing any education or training.
There is also a stark divide between the educated and the uneducated.
In 2000, only 35.2% of the unemployed youth were educated. By 2022, that figure had doubled to 66%, according to the ILO report.
“The more educated you are in this country—except for vocational and technical education—the higher the unemployment rate. The unemployment for illiterate persons is 3.4%, but for graduates, it's 29.1%”, said Rathin Roy, an economist and a senior fellow at the Overseas Development Institute based in London.
Countering the ILO data that 83% of India’s unemployed were young people, the labour ministry said the youth (aged 15-29 years) unemployment in 2022 was just 5%, down from 7% in 2019, while the unemployment rate for adults (aged 30-59 years) was 1% in 2022 and 2019.
Roy, an economic adviser to the 13th Finance Commission during the UPA, emphasised the need to examine this unemployment rate in light of over 100 million ‘NEET’—“Not in Education, Employment, or Training”—youths. “If you take these two facts together and think about them, the issue is a structural failure. Because in a country growing at 8-9%, why would a third of the youth neither be trained, working, or even in education,” he said.
Of course, this is not all. The government is also seeing a lot of administrative failures in entrance exams for higher education. Professor Ravikanth Kisana writes for the Quint about the failure of Indian higher education system.
The current government has landed itself in a difficult spot even before the 18th Lok Sabha convened in the new Parliament building. In the eye of the storm is the controversy around the National Eligibility cum Entrance Test (Undergraduate) or NEET, which is conducted for admission into undergraduate medical programs. It is one of the biggest entrance exams in India.
Around 24 lakh aspirants appeared for the exam in which the question paper was found to be allegedly leaked. Since then, the National Testing Agency (NTA), which is supposed to be conducting the exam, has come under heavy scrutiny. The NEET-PG exam has been postponed, the UGC-NET (National Eligibility Test) has been cancelled, and the NTA chief has been sacked.
This is not a one-off case. Exam leaks have been becoming more rampant in the past few years. From state board exam papers to competitive exams meant to hire teachers, forest guards, clerks, talatis, police constables, etc, all have seen major leaks. In the midst of all this, has anyone thought about the students, what their mindset is, and how they get affected by such upheavals? How does one make sense of this?
First, it points to the obvious lack of jobs and economic precarity that is now reaching levels that threaten social stability. Desperate aspirants willing to cross any barrier to ensure success in exams for even minor jobs, speak to a state that has failed in creating meaningful, gainful employment for its youth.
Secondly, it says something deeper about a society willing to put its young into a ‘battle’ for success. Our education system ties a young kid’s self-esteem and self-worth to their grades. For a young person, that one exam is a matter of life and death, a make-it-or-break-it gig. If there is something called the ‘great Indian dream’, it is to undo generations of backwardness and precarity through one exam in a single lifetime. This is especially true for first-generation learners from the SC, ST, and OBC communities.
Exams for higher education as well as jobs are lifeline for the youth in India. That entire culture—showing the failure of society and government—is hurting them.
Kashmir, Kashmir
Nayeema Ahmad Mahjoor writes for Kashmir Times about the climate of fear in Kashmir.
Everyone seems afraid of the BJP’s bulldozer policy in various states of India that has left hundreds of families homeless. Many houses of militants or their sympathisers have met the same fate in the valley.
However, some sections of society are raising the question in a subdued language: What has Pakistan achieved by putting a gun in the hands of Kashmiris? Or why was such a path taken that left Kashmir bruised?
Those who would have answered are probably missing in the land of Kashmir.
Only a few years back, the majority of the Kashmiris used to hold large rallies and processions to demand independence or accession with Pakistan; today, they are afraid even to mention the name of Pakistan, and even some are in a race to prove themselves as Indians.
But are they given the dignity of being Indian?
‘If this were the case, the mainstream leaders and former chief ministers would not have been locked up in jails for years and months; India never trusted Kashmiris, not even those who went against the aspirations of people.’
A leading activist of the National Conference adds that ‘India has set a different standard of Indianness for Kashmiris in which a certain section of the country sees the imaginary line of Pakistan inside their hearts despite seventy years of accession with the country.’
After the division of the sub-continent in 1947, despite India’s coercion and intimidation or Pakistan’s cheap political tactics, the Kashmiris did not stop moving forward. People wanted an everyday life, but that was the least they were provided.
And that is where we end today’s round up of India news.
Afghanistan
The UN an Indifferent ally
The United Nations will raise women’s rights even if they agreed to not have women in a conference with Taliban in Doha reports Edith M Lederer for Associated Press (I found it in MSN though).
NITED NATIONS (AP) — The U.N. political chief who will chair the first meeting between Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers and envoys from about 25 countries answered sharp criticism that Afghan women have been excluded, saying Wednesday that women’s rights will be raised at every session.
Undersecretary-General Rosemary DiCarlo stressed to a small group of reporters that the two-day meeting starting Sunday is an initial engagement aimed at initiating a step-by-step process with the goal of seeing the Taliban “at peace with itself and its neighbors and adhering to international law,” the U.N. Charter, and human rights.
This is the third U.N. meeting with Afghan envoys in Qatar's capital, Doha, but the first that the Taliban are attending. They weren't invited to the first and refused to attend the second.
Other attendees include envoys from the European Union, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, the United States, Russia, China and several of Afghanistan's neighbors, DiCarlo said.
Tom Levitt, Annie Kelly and Zahra Joya report for the Guardian that the UN decision is a betrayal of Afghan women.
Excluding Afghan women from an upcoming UN conference on Afghanistan would be a “betrayal” of women and girls in the country, say human rights groups and former politicians.
The Taliban are reportedly demanding that no Afghan women be allowed to participate in the UN meeting in Doha starting 30 June, set up to discuss the international community’s approach to Afghanistan, and that women’s rights are not on the agenda.
Since taking power in Afghanistan in August 2021, the Taliban have restricted women’s access to education, employment and public spaces. In March, it was reported that they would reintroduce the public flogging and stoning of women for adultery.
The Taliban did not participate in UN talks earlier this year, with the UN chief António Guterres saying at the time that the group presented a set of conditions for its participation that “denied us the right to talk to other representatives of the Afghan society” and were “not acceptable”.
Tirana Hassan, executive director at Human Rights Watch, said: “Excluding women risks legitimising the Taliban’s abuses and triggering irreparable harm to the UN’s credibility as an advocate for women’s rights and women’s meaningful participation.”
In trying to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table now, the UN was giving in to their demands to exclude women’s rights, said the former Afghan minister of women’s affairs Sima Samar.
“This situation is an indirect submission to the will of the Taliban. Law, democracy and sustainable peace are not possible without including half of the population of the society who are women. I don’t think we have learned anything from past mistakes.
“As one of the main changes, the people of Afghanistan should protest against discrimination, especially against women. Because this is not only the problem of women, but the problem of every family and every father, brother, child and husband,” said Samar
While UN accepts Taliban’s no Afghan women rule, you have reports from Ahmad Ahmadi, Zahra Nader and Farshid Aram for the Guardian that Taliban is sexual assaulting women in prisons.
Teenage girls and young women arrested by the Taliban for wearing “bad hijab” say they have been subjected to sexual violence and assault in detention.
In more than one case the arrests and sexual abuse that young women faced while in custody earlier this year led to suicide and attempted suicide, reporters from the Afghan news service Zan Times were told.
In one case, a woman’s body was allegedly found in a canal a few weeks after she had been taken into custody by Taliban militants, with a source close to her family saying she had been sexually abused before her death.
The UN say that many women were detained by the Taliban for “bad hijab” in December 2023 and January 2024, following a Taliban decree that women must cover themselves from head to toe, revealing only their eyes.
At the time the UN called the arrests “concerning” and girls and women told the Guardian they had been subjected to beatings and intimidation while in detention.
Now the girls and young women are coming forward to report that they also faced sexual violence and abuse by the Taliban police, with devastating consequences.
The family of 16-year-old Zahra* said she and another teenage girl were arrested in a shop in west Kabul in December 2023.
Given lack of internal dissent, pushing Taliban to ease its norms may look better for the UN. But I don’t know if that is fruitful in the long term. But cutting off all contact does not seem very useful either. A better idea is to not normalise relations while giving whatever support possible to any dissent in Afghanistan and to refugees from Afghanistan.
Russia and the Taliban
Afghan Witness reports on the growing ties between Russia and the Taliban.
On 27 May 2024, Russian media outlet Gazeta reported that Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov, the Ministry of Justice, and the Special Representative of the Russian Federation in Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, informed Russian President Vladimir Putin that the Taliban could be delisted as a terrorist organisation in Russia. On 28 May 2024, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Medvedev, stated in an interview with Russian state news agency TASS: “At the beginning of the 21st century we considered the Taliban terrorists and Americans our partners… Now it is the other way around.”
Also on 28 May 2024, during a visit to Tashkent, in an interview with TASS, Putin said: “There are problems in Afghanistan, everyone knows about them, but one somehow needs to build relations with the current government because they control the country.” This Russian-language interview was also posted on pro-Taliban Telegram channel Afghanistan Iznutri the same day.
On 29 May 2024, the Taliban Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) responded to the statements made by Russian authorities. On X, the MoFA noted that the Taliban “highly appreciated” Russia’s recent comments on “expanding political relations with the Islamic Emirate.” The Ministry added that it “has serious political will to develop relations with Russia, on the basis of mutual respect and ensuring common interests.” This response also circulated on Russian Telegram channel Афганистан изнутри (Afghanistan from inside).
Apparently, there was an anti-Western international forum organised in Russia that Taliban attended.
A Taliban delegation, led by Abdul Umari, the Minister of Labour and Social Development, attended the St Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) between 5 and 8 June 2024.
AW observed that the Forum’s agenda was explicitly anti-Western. The plenary session, attended by Putin and presidents of Zimbabwe and Bolivia, began with a video claiming Europeans colonised and robbed the world. An excerpt from this video claimed: “The time for justice and equality has come. Russian civilisation-state has withstood colonisation and inspired the multipolar world.”
At a round table involving the Taliban delegation, titled “Greater Eurasian Partnership as a New Pole of Growth: Potential and Prospects,” the moderator and the first speaker, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Pankin, called for “greater integration of Eurasia as a counter balance to the world system built for Western domination.” Another speaker, Russian Minister for Integration and Macroeconomics of the Eurasian Economic Commission, Sergey Glaziev, expressed the need for a “new world order with [its] core in Asia.” Russian State Duma Deputy Konstantine Zaitulin also spoke of the “violation of the international laws, conflicts and tensions against our states with the countries of the West, their colonial practices and rules.”
Umari, the speaker of the Taliban’s delegation, claimed that Afghanistan was suffering under Western sanctions, and said that it was now time to end these sanctions. Umari also mentioned the Taliban’s intentions to construct new railroads and improve infrastructure in Afghanistan, but provided little in terms of statistics or detail. His contribution to the discussion did not prompt any response or questions from the audience.
Russia is also investing in infrastructure in Afghanistan.
Myanmar
Civil War Updates
Irrawaddy reports that Myanmar military suffered loses in Mandalay.
The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and allies have captured two dozen junta military bases, including an artillery battalion headquarters, in two townships of northern Shan State and a third in upper Mandalay Region since relaunching Operation 1027 three days ago, the ethnic army said on Thursday.
It resumed Operation 1027 in Kyaukme and Nawnghkio Townships near the border with Mandalay Region in northern Shan State as well as Mogoke, a township that borders Nawnghkio in upper Mandalay on Tuesday, saying it was reacting to repeated violations of the China-brokered ceasefire deal this month by the junta’s military.
The three townships are southwest of Lashio, the junta-controlled capital of northern Shan State. The road connecting Lashio to Mandalay runs through them.
The TNLA has been joined by troops from the Mandalay People’s Defense Force (PDF), which has expanded Operation 1027 to upper Mandalay. The PDF is under the control of the civilian National Unity Government.
Reminds me that the Hindu had reported that the Myanmar’s rebel forces had accused the army of violating ceasefire.
The AFP report in the Irrawaddy says that former Myanmar President Thein Sein travelled to China on an official visit.
YANGON—Former Myanmar President Thein Sein departed for an official visit to China on Thursday, Beijing’s embassy in Yangon said, in his first foreign trip since the military seized power three years ago.
Former general Thein Sein, 79, ruled Myanmar from 2011 to 2016 as the reformist president of a quasi-civilian government which ceded power to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi following landmark elections.
He later retired to the military-built capital Naypyitaw and has largely stayed out of the public eye since.
On Wednesday Thein Sein met China’s ambassador and discussed “the situation in Myanmar and cooperation between the two countries,” the embassy in Yangon posted on its Facebook page.
It is not strictly civil war, but I am not entirely sure where else to put it either.
Military and Religion Lock Horns
The military apparently killed a Buddhist monk. Again, an AFP report in Irrawaddy.
BAGO, Myanmar—Thousands of mourners on Thursday attended the funeral of a popular Buddhist abbot shot dead by Myanmar security forces in an incident that drew a rare apology from the junta.
Sayadaw Bhaddanta Munindabhivamsa, 78, was a prominent teacher and author on Buddhism who headed a monastery that had publicly opposed the military’s 2021 coup that has plunged Myanmar into turmoil.
He was shot dead on June 19 as he traveled by car through central Mandalay Region, in an incident state media initially blamed on its opponents before the junta said its forces were responsible.
In heavy rain, senior and junior Buddhist monks, nuns and residents walked for hours alongside the coffin from the abbot’s monastery to the cremation ground.
Khin Nadi reports for Irrawaddy that the monks are now pushing for a religious boycott of the regime.
The Myanmar junta’s slaying of a senior Buddhist figure and subsequent coverup have spurred Burmese monks at home and in exile to launch a religious boycott against the regime.
Known as “pattanikkujjana” in Pali, a Buddhist monks’ boycott involves refusing alms from those who have committed offenses against the Sangha (clergy) or religious principles, while also refusing them religious rites likes funerals and weddings.
Burmese monks have declared several boycotts against military regimes in recent history, notably in 1990 after soldiers beat monks on the anniversary of the 8888 uprising and again in 2007 when they cracked down on monks leading demonstrations against price hikes that turned into the “Saffron Revolution”.
On Sunday, a group of 25 monks from Chaung-U Township, Sagaing Region declared a fresh boycott over the junta’s killing of Sayadaw Bhaddanta Munindabhivamsa, a retired member of the State Sangha Nayaka Committee, the highest Buddhist authority in Myanmar, and abbot of Win Neinmitayon Monastery in Bago Region.
The boycott quickly spread to four more townships in the resistance stronghold, as well as Myaing township in Magwe Region. Exiled monks also declared solidarity with the alms strike.
That is it for today. Until, next Friday everyone. Stay safe. Be well. Take care.
May we have the courage to fight against supremacist rhetoric and all forms of persecuting violence in whatever way we can.