In a decades old career, i’ve listened to voters, volunteers, campaign staff and (more cynically) consultants and the press moan about the choices we face in numerous elections. You kind of get tired of it. And i always have the same response: run for office.
I suspect that’s the most unsatisfying answer anyone’s ever heard.
But the reality — the stark reality — is that our candidates are self-selected. There’s no hidden hand out there choosing our candidates (if there were, Trump would never have gotten the GOP nomination — or even out of Iowa).
I woke up (way too early, btw) to more than 100 messages in various formats that could be encapsulated this way: “NOW can we replace Biden as the nominee?” Most, but definitely not all, came from Hope Springs from Field PAC [website] volunteers who were, to put it politely, alarmed by last night’s debate. Just focusing on our Hope Springs volunteers, i got a whole bunch of different questions. (As a contributor,) What should I do now? Or, how can I voice my dissent without hurting our chances. Do we still have a chance? How do I defend the president? et cetera, ad infinitum.
The last thing i want to be doing today is to play the happy soldier. I was always surprised at how optimistic people think i am, especially in this forum, because i pride myself in playing it straight. I always told my clients, before they hired me, that i’m pretty blunt and won’t hold back. I ask volunteers who ask me, well, difficult questions, “do you really want to know the answer to that?”
The reality is that we may be stuck with Biden, and there’s not a lot that we can do about that. We have to wait for the reality to sink in, and that might not happen until the election. But there’s a lot to lose if Trump wins in 2024. I’m not sure everyone understands the stakes (because most people don’t pay attention to campaigns until late in the cycle).
So what choice do we have? In essence, the choice is Joe Biden’s and we have to hope he and his family — especially Jill — are thinking seriously about this. There is a foreseeable way out of this for the president. It really depends on whether he can do what it takes to reverse the perception that he is just too old to be our president. He walks stiffly, and his voice has lost its timber. If he can get out and campaign 5-6 days a week, without stumbling (both literally and figuratively), then, sure, he could win. I mean, can Trump seriously stay as disciplined as he did last night?
But the gamble is more obvious now. Laid out for everyone to plainly see. The only people who know how big a gamble it is, for the president personally (and i am thinking mostly health wise) are the president, his wife and the few close aides who work with him day in and day out. But “wooden Joe” is probably not going to change many people’s minds. He has to be “vigorous Joe,” the Joe who runs to the podium, he brings the attack god back. And we simply don’t have the ability to know if he is capable of that.
But the risk of Donald Trump choosing two more Supreme Court Justices is just too great. The threat is real.
Hope Springs from Field PAC began knocking on doors again on March 2nd. We target Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization2024
Hope Springs from Field understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.
Since candidates are self-selected, there’s not a lot we can do. But that doesn’t mean that there’s nothing that we can do.
For my volunteers who asked about how the voice their concern as a small dollar donor, i suggested they hold off on making any changes today. But i told them they do have options.
If you are a monthly donor and are concerned (either that Biden is likely to drop out or what to send a message in that vein), you can switch your monthly donation over to the DNC. DNC funds are going to the nominee, regardless. You can always switch back later.
Someone asked me if they should switch out their monthly to Biden to Hope Springs, if that would send him a message. And i had to reply No, that no one on the campaign is going to make that kind of correlation. Not that we don’t want people’s contributions (of course we do). I outlined in the prior paragraph how you could send a message.
I was asked what happens to the money in Biden's account if he were to withdraw. One would hope that, if Biden were to do that, he would turn over his bank account to the nominee, but he has to make that choice.
Is there a way to force him to withdraw? I’ve been sending people who asked that Politico’s Here’s how Democrats could replace Biden. Rick Hasen attacked the question from the Election Law angle. I don’t have any extra insight there.
A lot of the Hope Springs volunteers have messaged me asking if Democrats still have a chance? Of course we do. There’s a lot of time before November. But Biden and his campaign were right to assume that we needed to shake up the race (a major factor in proposing an early debate). And that still has to happen. We need a lot of things to shift: public attitudes about the economy, the re-emergence of Reproductive Freedom as a driving (or deciding) factor, etc. But we still have a chance.
Volunteers were asking this specifically about this weekend. Does it make sense to go out and canvass this weekend (or next weekend)? Volunteers are, after all, volunteers. I have no idea what to expect now, and we’ve always had a significant drop-off in turnout during holiday weekends. But, as i reminded our volunteers, our work is not dependent upon Biden being the nominee and helps Democrats no matter what.
Finally, How do I defend the president? I think that is really left to someone else. The work that Hope Springs from Field has been doing is not about verbal persuasion but persuasion from deeds. For the most part, no one is going to remember what we say at the door four months out from Election Day. But the impression we leave will linger. The smile at the door, the solicitation to voter’s opinions, the opportunity to file a Constituent Service Request — these are positive impressions that voters can and will remember in November. That’s what we can do now to shift voter attitudes about Democrats.
I personally found the president’s performance cringe-worthy. I expected that from Trump, i am disappointed that i felt that way about Biden’s performance. But i’ll be in North Carolina tomorrow, knocking on doors with Hope Springs volunteers there. And i am hoping that i will feel better tomorrow than i do today.
But Republicans, and, especially, the Trump-inspired Republicans are not going to let up. We can’t either. All i feel like i can ask for is that Joe Biden and his family take our concerns over his age and this specific performance seriously. Is he ready to unleash Vigorous Joe? Attack Joe? Active Joe? If not...
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