Reasonable people might differ on the question, “How big of a disaster for Biden’s chances for victory was last night’s debate?”
But however people answer that question, what Democrats should do now must be dictated by the question, “What course will best prevent Donald Trump from regaining the powers of the Presidency?”
(The essential question in this election is “Will American Democracy survive?” Donald Trump becoming President again represents a mortal threat to our constitutional order. Not only our Democracy, actually, but the cause of the whole “free world,” and — with climate change — the well-being of our planet and future generations. Therefore, defeating Trump in November must be regarded as a necessity.)
Reasonable people might differ on whether sticking with Biden remains the best option for defeating Donald Trump. But if sticking with Biden remains the best way to keep the powers of the American presidency out of Trump’s hands, we’re in much deeper trouble today than we were in before the debate.
(Biden had one major vulnerability — the issues surrounding his age. And last night’s debate was widely regarded as being a huge moment for reaching a wide swath of the electorate. Biden’s performance confirmed people’s doubts. If the election was bound to be close, I have difficulty imagining how Biden can undo the disastrous impression his performance gave last night before an audience of likely 80-some million Americans.
(And the extent to which defenders of the “stick with Biden” position seem to rely on some version of the “But Trump can be shown to have lied right and left” argument suggests how weak the argument for Biden might be. Trump always lies right and left, and yet he came into the debate with the future’s markets already favoring him. Trump’s lies do not cost him politically nearly as much as they should, and it doesn’t help us to deny that reality.)
Of course, whatever the problems with the “stick with Biden” course, there would be real challenges for the Democrats if they were to change horses in mid-stream. Who — if not Biden — would be most likely to defeat Trump? And how could the Democratic Party best come to that result?
Here are my thoughts, for whatever they’re worth:
1) The first step must be made by President Biden. He must take himself out of the picture. (Reports indicate that Biden has great resistance to acknowledging the “age issue,” but if the best course is for him to withdraw, he’s called upon to overcome that resistance, and deliver a major speech to the nation as a whole, and to the delegates to the Democratic National Convention in particular.
Biden can say whatever he wants about his debate performance and what that does or doesn’t indicate about his fitness for another term. But he would have to acknowledge that the debate now requires him to put the nation first — and then launch into a powerful case about the necessity of keeping Donald Trump away from the Presidency for the dramatic reasons we all know.
That speech can be a valuable contribution to the campaign, with that compelling case against Trump presented as the reason he’s withdrawing from the race, and releasing his delegates to the Democratic National Convention to choose an alternative.
(Conventions used to always be the way that American parties came up with their nominees.)
2) There should be a process — perhaps proposed by Biden — by which the major contenders for the nomination present themselves to the delegates to the convention.
Had Biden withdrawn last year, primaries would have done the job. At this late date, some best-possible alternative would have to be invented.
By some means, the number of contenders would need to be kept within bounds (perhaps a half dozen). It is already reasonably clear who some of the major alternatives would be. (People mention Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Witmer.
(On predictit.com, in the aftermath of the debate, the futures market not only had Biden falling, but also Newsom rising— up to 17% probability of his being the winner of the presidential election. If I had to give my answer to that essential question — “What course will best prevent Donald Trump from regaining the powers of the Presidency?” — my best bet would be, nominate Governor Newsom.
Perhaps each contender would deliver a twenty-minute speech. Perhaps some venue could be set up to showcase the contenders — making their pitches — before the Convention, so there could be some deliberation by the delegates (and the Democratic electorate) in advance.
In olden times, conventions often went through many, many ballots to get a nominee. That should be avoided here. Perhaps some ranked-choice voting could be used (from the outset, or after a given number of ballots).
But whoever is the Democratic standard-bearer, what is truly essential is that it be the person with the best chance of winning, and thus protecting our constitutional order from the fascistic threat that Donald Trump explicitly represents.