The debate was a disaster for Biden and there’s no sugarcoating it. Before hitting the panic button, take a deep breath and listen to the wise man who said this:
Just because you think Alfred may be getting a bit too old to take care of the bat cave, doesn’t mean you should replace him with the Joker.
The wise man being Jimmy Kimmel.
After the debate, we may wish for someone else, but there are no good options for replacing Biden. The Guardian had this list:
Who could replace Joe Biden as Democratic presidential nominee?
Should Joe Biden decide not to go for reelection in November after all, the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, which takes place 19-22 August, would have to nominate somebody else. There isn’t a clear frontrunner, but there would be some of the potential options.
Kamala Harris
The most obvious default pick would be Biden’s vice-president. She has been widely criticised for not carving out her own role in the Biden administration and has poor polling approval ratings, suggesting she would struggle against Donald Trump in the glare of an election campaign. The 59-year-old was backing Biden after the debate, but would also be maybe the easiest for the party to install as a replacement. She would automatically become president if Biden resigned from the White House, but that would not automatically make her the nominee.
Gavin Newsom
The 56-year-old California governor was in the spin room last night talking down any alternatives to Biden being the nominee, saying it was “nonsensical speculation”. He had a primetime debate with Florida gov Ron DeSantis last year, which could be a presidential match-up of the future, and has made a point of supporting Democrats in elections away from his home state, which looked, at times, like a shadow White House campaign.
J B Pritzker
The 59-year-old governor of Illinois would be one of the wealthiest of potential picks, but also can flourish the credentials of having codified the right to abortion in Illinois and declaring it a “sanctuary state” for women seeking abortions. He has also been strong on gun control, and legalised recreational marijuana.
Gretchen Whitmer
The Michigan governor was on the shortlist for VP pick for Biden in 2020, and a strong showing in the midterms for the Democratic party was in part put down to her governership. The 52-year-old has been in favor of stricter gun laws, repealing abortion bans and back universal pre-kindergarten.
Sherrod Brown
The 71-year-old would be the most elderly of the alternate picks, but still seven years younger than Donald Trump. It was considered a surprise when he didn’t have a tilt for the Democratic nomination for 2020, at the time saying he saw remaining as Ohio’s senator as “the best place for me to make that fight” on behalf of working people. A strong voice on labor rights and protections, he has also spoken out on protections for IVF and abortion.
Dean Philips
The main contender to Joe Biden during the primaries earlier this year has already demonstrated an inability to appeal to the broader party, and so is unlikely to be a factor.
You could add Josh Shapiro, Governor of Pennsylvania or Pete Buttigieg, Secretary of Transportation into the mix. But that doesn’t improve the choices. I’ve even seen someone I respect throw Andy Beshear’s hat into the ring. He’s the Governor of Kentucky. An even worse choice if your goal is beating Donald Trump.
Unlike parties found in a parliamentary system, American political parties are not traditional parties, they are temporary coalitions – and the coalition holds together until it loses, then it reforms. In the case of the Republican Party, each new reforming since Reagan looked pretty similar. Until Trump. Democrats have broken apart and reformed at least a half-dozen times since then. Biden managed to cobble together a coalition that included black voters, enough of the Bernie Sanders left to matter, and enough of Trump-hating Republicans and independents to win.
Since Harry Truman, the black vote has made the difference in every Democratic victory, save Lyndon Johnson’s 1964 landslide. I’ve done the math for each of those elections. Democrats won in 1948, 1960, 1976, 1992, 1996, 2008, 2012 and 2020 only because black voters backed them in landslide numbers in each and every one of those elections. Trump’s people know that, which is why they’re trying to peel off enough of the black vote to squeak to victory.
How much enthusiasm will black voters have come November if Democrats get rid of Biden and also dump Kamala Harris, as so many of the pundits advise?
But if Kamala Harris does replace Biden on the ticket, how much of those centrist and center-right Democrats and independents will stay on board? She has been demonized by both the GOP and much of the mainstream media. Unfairly I believe, but replacing Biden with Kamala is an unquantifiable risk. I like Kamala. A lot. Personally I would love to see her at the top of the ticket. But winning this election is critical. Does she stand a better chance than Biden?
Still, if you replace Biden and want a chance at winning this election, Kamala is the only option. But it can only happen if both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris choose that outcome. A fight on the convention floor over Biden’s age guarantees a November loss.
Everyone else on the Guardian list is a pipedream. Gavin Newsom is a good politician. He’s also a corporate democrat in the flavor of Bill Clinton, just updated. How much of the left-wing gets enthusiastic about him? Plus he was once married to Kimberly Guilfoyle – now the significant other of Donald Trump Jr. Think that won’t hurt Newsom in a 2024 election? Think again.
Gretchen Whitmer is the only other feasible candidate, but her appeal with different parts of the Democratic coalition is untested. She also has no foreign policy experience. Something Kamala Harris now has in spades.
In 1968 Lyndon Johnson panicked after losing in New Hampshire and dropped out of the race. Had Johnson stayed in, he would have won the nomination, given the assassination of his only significant rival, Robert Kennedy. Johnson was a ruthless bastard and he also would have beaten Nixon. He left office with a plan to end the Vietnam war. A plan sabotaged by Richard Nixon. It would have saved the country decades of agony that followed. Not to mention many American lives plus millions of other lives lost in southeast asia thanks to Nixon and Kissinger’s assault on Cambodia and massive bombing of Vietnam.
Whatever happens, panic is not an option. Panic guarantees a Trump victory.
Lincoln Project guru Rick Wilson writes on substack – every Friday he puts out his thoughts. It’s behind a paywall, so here are the key parts of what he said today:
It’s an emergency. Fly the plane.
In flying, we practice emergency scenarios all the time. You learn and memorize a lot of what you must do when an engine quits, your avionics die, a fire breaks out, or a goose comes through the windshield. You can wake me up from a sound sleep, and I can run the boldface emergency checklists for a half-dozen aircraft models from memory, but there’s more to it.
There’s a rule in every aviation emergency that starts with the simplest act: fly the plane. Every problem gets worse if you don’t do that first.
The order of handling the emergency is always the same: aviate, navigate, communicate.
We’re in the “aviate” phase right now. We’ll get to “navigate” and “communicate” in a few days, but for now, fly the plane.
It’s late June, and Joe Biden went on stage with a felon who tore down America, told 500 sundry lies, bragged about ending Roe v. Wade, defended January 6th, denied having sex with a porn star, and promised to betray Ukraine.
And Joe Biden had a bad, bad night.
It was the worst debate performance I’ve seen. Beyond age, there was a sense he was wildly overprepared and not in the kind of way I suggested earlier in the week.
History is replete with bad debate performances: Clinton’s first outing in 1992, George W. Bush’s Boston groaner (I was there, and it was awful), and Obama’s first showing against John McCain. Debates matter until they don’t, but they matter most to the chattering and online classes.
But there’s no spinning it. I won’t bother. The herd is moving as herds so.
With that said, Donald Trump remains an existential threat to democracy, the Republic, the Constitution, and our most fundamental liberties, in addition to being a fraud, a liar, a felon, a degenerate, a sexual assaulter, a global embarrassment, and an ally of evil.
The race is still a choice between America and Trump.
What the Biden White House and campaign do next is not something I can control. I’ve viewed my job since 2015 to defeat Donald Trump. Full stop, no conditions. It’s the most important work anyone who believes in America can do.
Nor can I control what the Democratic Party and the mainstream media will do in the coming hours and days. The media is feasting on this moment to a degree that should — but won’t — permanently dismiss the lie they’re some liberal hit squad.
As a practicing Stoic, I can control my own emotions, my determination to keep fighting Trump, how much my actions will shape the election, and dismiss the actions I can’t take.
Trump threatens America’s darkest hour. Wilson offers something we can all do.