So there was a debate Thursday night between Joe Biden and Donald Trump and it’s pretty clear that Biden didn’t do too well. I watched the same thing everyone else did, and I did not enjoy myself. Biden looked old and played into the exact media narrative his campaign was trying to change. You’ve heard some version of that ad nauseaum over the past two days and you won’t see me argue otherwise on that point.
What I will take exception to are the calls may many in Democratic circles and the media for Joe Biden to drop out of the campaign. I understand the reasoning. Biden’s performance was historically bad and his performance raised serious concerns in his fitness to serve another term as president. Pull the emergency lever, get Biden out of there, and get someone younger to step in and save the day!
I submit that if your goal is preventing Donald Trump from returning to the White House next year, then I can’t think of a more counterproductive exercise than pushing for Biden to drop out. My reasoning for this thesis is going to be based on a strange source: Dr. Allan Lichtman.
Lichtman is a history professor at American University whose name comes up in the media every four years for his prediction on who will win that year’s presidential election. His 13 Keys to the White House are (mostly) not based on polls or campaigning, but on the performance of the party holding the White House over the past four year term. This methodology has enabled him to predict the winner of 9 of the past 10 presidential elections in advance (2000 was the exception). 5 or fewer false keys means that the party holding the White House stays in power, 6 or more false keys means that partisan control of the presidency will change hands.
The keys are:
- KEY 1 (Party Mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
- KEY 2 (Party Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
- KEY 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
- KEY 4 (Third party): There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
- KEY 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- KEY 6 (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- KEY 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- KEY 8 (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- KEY 9 (Scandal): The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- KEY 11 (Foreign/military success): The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- KEY 12 (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- KEY 13 (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
For the past few months, Lichtman has been saying that “a lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose”. Why is that? Here’s a video of Lichtman breaking down where the keys stand as of June 6 (the breakdown ends at ~27 minutes):
In summary:
- KEY 1 (Party Mandate): False
- KEY 2 (Party Contest): True
- KEY 3 (Incumbency): True
- KEY 4 (Third party): Leans True
- KEY 5 (Short-term economy): True
- KEY 6 (Long-term economy): True
- KEY 7 (Policy change): True
- KEY 8 (Social unrest): Leans True
- KEY 9 (Scandal): True
- KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): Likely False
- KEY 11 (Foreign/military success): Likely False
- KEY 12 (Incumbent charisma): False
- KEY 13 (Challenger charisma): True
When you total that up, there are only 2 definitively false keys for Biden with 4 more undecided. All four of those keys (4, 8, 10, and 11) would have to turn false to predict Biden’s defeat and two of them are leaning true. All of that was before the debate when no one was seriously entertaining the idea of Biden dropping out.
Let’s explore then what would happen if Joe Biden were to drop out. Right off the bat, Democrats lose Key 3 (Incumbency) because only Joe Biden is the sitting president. In addition, a brokered Democratic convention would forfeit Key 2 (Party Contest). With all of the presidential primaries over, I highly doubt that a consensus candidate would emerge quickly in the ensuing mad scramble for delegate support — especially since none of the potential contenders are campaigning for the presidency this year. It would be a shit show for the Democrats. The media would cover it as such, and Trump wouldn’t have to do a goddamn thing. Whoever would emerge from that chaos would come out damaged goods.
When you look at past presidential elections where the party holding the White House had a big, contested nomination battle in the past 60 years, all of those elections ended in their defeat: Clinton and Bernie in 2016, Carter and Ted Kennedy in 1980, Ford and Reagan in 1976, and Humphrey and RFK Sr. in 1968, Were there other factors that doomed those campaigns? Of course! But that kind of intra-party infighting does not bode well for a party in power to stay in power.
Incumbency is also a major advantage that is difficult for challengers to overcome. Since 1864 there have been 24 elections where an incumbent president ran for reelection. The incumbent has won 17 of those contests (about 70%). An elected incumbent is by default well-known, battle-tested, has a clear record they can run on (as opposed to promises), and commands the tools of state, and the bully pulpit. An incumbent can certainly lose reelection if his term goes badly enough, but there is a good reason why the White House is much more likely to change partisan control in elections where the sitting president is retiring (whether voluntarily or via the 22nd amendment). One could argue that this advantage is weaker in 2024 with Trump having already won the presidency once before. However, Democrats would be foolish to give up that advantage by pushing Biden out of the race in favor of Kamala Harris (whose 2020 presidential campaign ended before the Iowa caucuses) or governors like Newsom, Whitmer, or Shapiro who have never run for president before.
Let’s revisit those keys but this time turn the Incumbency and Party Contest keys false:
- KEY 1 (Party Mandate): False
- KEY 2 (Party Contest): False
- KEY 3 (Incumbency): False
- KEY 4 (Third party): Leans True
- KEY 5 (Short-term economy): True
- KEY 6 (Long-term economy): True
- KEY 7 (Policy change): True
- KEY 8 (Social unrest): Leans True
- KEY 9 (Scandal): True
- KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): Likely False
- KEY 11 (Foreign/military success): Likely False
- KEY 12 (Incumbent charisma): False
- KEY 13 (Challenger charisma): True
Democrats would now be at 4 false keys with 4 more undecided. According to this methodology, the only way Trump doesn’t win is if things turn around dramatically in Ukraine and Gaza, RFK Jr slides into irrelevance, and the widespread campus protests over Gaza fizzle out. With Biden in the race, only one of those things has to happen to defeat Trump. Without Biden, all four of those things need to happen to defeat Trump.
Let’s set aside the Lichtman model for now. There is plenty to criticize about it and past performance is no guarantee of future returns. There are other very good reasons why Biden Is likely not as doomed as you think at first glance. Kos himself wrote a diary last Sunday, June 23 titled Biden is going to win. Here are 11 reasons why. Ten of those eleven arguments in favor of a Biden victory are still true. Here’s that list:
- Trump Is Tied In Polling, Even Though People Aren’t Paying Attention
- Where Will Trump’s Growth Come From? He’s Maxed Out Demographically
- As People Learn That Trump’s Responsible For Dobbs, It’ll Bleed Support
- Trump’s Conviction Will Take Its Toll Over Time. Polling Was Brutal For Him On That
- Dems Are Overperforming In Special Elections, Which Are Actual Elections—Not Polls
- Trump Underperformed His Polling Numbers In Primaries
- Inflation Is Under Control But, Yes, Still Problematic
- Republicans Have Been Trying To Make Immigration A Major Election Issue For Years, But It Hasn’t Worked
- Democrats Are More Scared Of Trump Than Republicans Are Of Biden, Which Impacts Intensity
- Trump Is An Incoherent Mess Who Is More Interested In Airing Grievances Than Issuing A Focused, Popular Agenda
- Trump Is Siphoning Donor Money From Republicans For Legal Expenses And Personal Grifts
With the exception of the first point, all of those things are still factors working against Trump. Abortion will still be a salient issue, Trump is still a convicted felon due to be sentenced right before the Republican convention, much of Trump’s campaign finances are being used to pay his defense lawyers rather than campaign for votes, he was still an incoherent mess at the debate. On and on it goes. Trump still has massive liabilities going into this election that are not going to do him any favors. This debate happened in June and the race can still shift quite a bit. Both candidates are going to have their share of good and bad news cycles between now and Election Day.
Does Biden need to do better from here on out? Absolutely. He did himself and the country no favors with his debate performance on Thursday. His campaign rally yesterday was a good start to get that turned around.
Should Biden drop out? Absolutely not.
Do you want to make sure that Trump doesn’t win back the presidency? I suggest you get to work.