Hello, Gnusies! Niftywriter can’t make it today, so I’m stepping in . I’m also doing this coming Friday, when I’ll work with my complete usual template (she’s subbing for me in August). So today we’re doing something different!
Now, our madam mayor, GoodNewsRoundup, is great at creating lists showcasing the strengths of President Biden. I cannot match her, but I can be inspired by her.
Today we’re going to talk about evidence showing the weaknesses of the convicted felon and the GOP campaigns.
Now, remember, no one here is complacent.
Come on in, dear gnusies. I hope these observations cheer you up. Please add your own!
Regular Scheduled Programming
No one here is naïve; we are aware of the many who are fighting todestroy our country. Some of us expected it: the cheating, the lying, thechaos, and yes, even the attempts to cling to power despite the clear will ofthe people. But we are here to read the efforts and the positive results ofthose (including us and our fellow gnus) who are working so hard to save ourcountry from those very bad people. We are furious with them for whatthey are doing and we are letting them know. Remember:
💙 Thereare more of us than there are of them.
💛They are terrified when we organize. THERE IS LOTS OF EVIDENCE THAT THEYARE TERRIFIED!
💔They want us to be demoralized. The best way to keep up your spirits is tofight. So, take the time to recharge your batteries, but find ways tocontribute to the well-being of our country and our world.
I am including the “Regular Scheduled Programming” because they really want us to be demoralized. They do this by projecting strength. But tRump and his minions are known liars. Don’t trust anything they say, not without corroboration from sources you can trust. So often what they say is completely false.
I. Don’t trust the polls.
So many polls show that tRump is ahead, or that Biden is only leading by wee margins. At least, this is true of the polls that the MSM and especially the NYT keep hyping. Now, despite being an actuary, I have not gone into the weeds on these things. However, some of the stuff coming out of them has been highly questionable, such as tRump leading by 27% with young people. Others have pointed out the oversampling of rural voters and the strange definitions of likely voters.
We also know that polling has been really wrong when compared to actual data, such as actual elections. The special elections have gone much more in our direction than the polls.
There are other reasons to question the polls.
A. They are conducted poorly. I happened to be in the States just before the 2022 midterms, and I was polled for the local congressional race. It was a completely crappy pushpoll, so much so that I grew disgusted near the end. I finally told the pollster that I had already voted (as an expat, I get my ballot really early) but he begged me to stay on the line. I am sure that’s because he was having trouble getting people to answer. So the poll was suspect because of its nature and the difficulty getting people to respond.
B. They are manipulated. Now, I don’t have a lot of evidence on this, but one thing that was highlighted during the trial of tRump was how Michael Cohen was using a tech company (Red Finch) to manipulate an online poll. Do you think tRump has stopped this? I don’t. I think they have tripled, quadrupled, infinitdupled their efforts.
C. The MSM hypes the polls showing a close horse race, and buries those with Biden way ahead. We know this has happened with the New York Times.
Want more than my word for it? Here’s a Daily Kos diary.
And here’s what Beau has to say:
Here’s Beau of the Fifth Column talking about it:
*
Here’s a tweet from Simon Rosenberg:
I think we’re doing even better than Rosenberg says, because of the polling problems.
Now, let’s move on to other indications.
II. Staged Events
Here I am indebted to the Meidas Touch Network for reporting on several tRump events and letting us know they were not nearly as well attended as the MSM may let you believe. In fact, they were all staged and then hyped to be much more successful than they actually were.
Sandi Bachom, as a photographer, has attended many events.
A. Bodega visit in New York City: Meidas Touch Network
As it turns out, this event wasn't a spontaneous visit. In fact, it was organized by a pro-Trump group, the New York Young Republican Club (NYYRC). Members of the club can be seen at the Harlem bodega location ahead of Trump's visit and can be seen in the crowd later where they led chants. ✂️ The RNC tried to spin the Harlem bodega visit as "impromptu" which is incorrect. The NYYRC informed everyone several times across multiple accounts that they planned the event. ✂️ For Trump's campaign, this is a pattern. He did it at the Chick-fil-A in Atlanta, and he will do it again. When pro-Trump MAGA Republicans are invited to gather at a pre-planned events in heavily Democratic areas like Harlem, of course they are going to cheer for Trump.
B. Wildwood, New Jersey rally
Trump shared an article boasting, "Trump Shows Up Taylor Swift, Bruce Springsteen With Record-Setting NJ 100,000 Crowd." Trump's post claims he had 100,000 people at his New Jersey rally and implies he’s more popular than Taylor Swift and Bruce Springsteen. These numbers were repeated over and over by right-wing media — and sometimes by the less right-wing media.
They even posted a picture of a huge crowd on a beach, even though people quickly pointed out they were showing a picture of a rock concert in Brazil.
Better estimates were closer to 10,000, although numbers still vary. And people still left early. Sandi Bachom: At 7:46pm supporters started leaving the Trump Wildwood rally WHILE he was still speaking. He was at least an hour late, after he kept them waiting all day.
C. Bronx rally Clarissa-Jan Lim MSNBC
Trump, a Queens native, made a rare appearance in his deep-blue hometown of New York City and spoke to what NBC News reported as "one of the most diverse rally crowds of his political career." The event was cast as part of his outreach to voters of color, and he tailored some of his usual talking points to the predominantly Black and Hispanic crowd.
Trump's campaign later
hailed the turnout at the event, estimating that 25,000 had been there. Pro-Trump figures and media outlets also
ran with that number. On Truth Social, Trump
posted an article from the right-wing Right Side Broadcasting Network that claimed as much, and then later lamented that the mainstream media did not cover the "big" rally. ✂️
And contrary to the claim that 25,000 people showed up to the rally, a zoomed-out view of the event showed a much smaller crowd in attendance. (The campaign had a permit for 3,500 people, The New York Times reported.) For context, New York City's Madison Square Garden can hold fewer than 20,000 people, and The Sphere in Las Vegas' has an 18,600-person capacity.
It's notable that the rally drew even the meagre crowd it did, considering the location. But the claim that more people were there than could fit inside enormous venues is a familiar exaggeration from Trump and his allies, who have made a habit of overstating his appeal.
They should be harder on him. About 2,500 people — AND MANY WERE NOT FROM THE BRONX. I have also heard that many were bused in. Some general remarks from Sandi Bachom: An observation about the Trump rallies. Five years ago 20,000 people would be in a venue that cost $500 k to rent. There would be Jumbotrons inside and out. But he never paid any of those venues and now he’s giving rallies in parks and in fire houses in the middle of nowhere and he’s lying about the size of the crowd, and there are no Jumbotrons so the overflow crowd if there is any in a small Venue can’t see him.
D. Libertarian National Convention: (I’m copying stuff from my GNR last Friday, but repetition is good). And this is what happens when they control it less: No wannabe dictators! tRump booed at LNC David Smith The Guardian
Donald Trump, the former US president, has suffered the rare humiliation of getting booed and heckled during a raucous speech to the Libertarian National Convention.
Trump’s rocky ride at a Washington hotel on Saturday night, including cries of “Bullshit!” and “Fuck you!”, underlined the challenge that the Republican presidential nominee faces to broaden his appeal both left and right on the political spectrum. ✂️
The appeal went down like a lead balloon as delegates booed, jeered and shouted insults. It was a stunning rebuke for a man who has become accustomed to cult-like rallies where his every word is cheered to the echo.
I know many posts have already been made about this, but there were some points I want to repeat. First, tRump’s appeal is not as broad as they pretend. In fact, many, many Americans hate him. Second, information that came out showed how the tRump campaign tried to stuff the audience with tRump supporters and failed. We should remember they try to do this every time, busing people in, then lying repeatedly and ridiculously about crowd size. This time it did not work.
But, to me, the really interesting and encouraging bits were when tRump begged for the votes of the Libertarians. That signals to me that he and his campaign knows that he is not doing well in the polls. It also may mean they don’t have a good way to steal the election.
III. tRump asked for votes at the Libertarian meeting in DC
He would never do that if he did not need them.
He begged.
The Ls booed.
He got mad when they booed, and insulted them.
tRump’s internal polls must suck.
And there are indications that the guilty x 34 verdict is not increasing his popularity. Now, this means polls, and we don’t really trust polls, so I’m not linking to them at the moment.
IV. Fewer signs
This is anecdotal, but I think it matters. Husband and I drove through a lot of Texas to see the eclipse in April, 2024.
We saw a total of three tRump signs. One was terribly faded; the message appeared to be from 2020. Two appeared current and legit.
We drove many hundreds of miles and through a lot of small towns. And really, only two signs, close enough together that they could have been placed by the same human.
Now, you can argue that it’s still early yet. And maybe it is. But the primary in Texas was March 5, 2024, when tRump and Haley were still apparently competing. Were there signs up earlier — and people took them down?
Or maybe there’s less enthusiasm. Even in deep-red Texas.
V. That gofundme
Remember that gofundme that was started by a tRump supporter to help him raise money to post bond in New York in order to appeal the decision about the tRump organization?
I did a series of DKOS diaries on them
Checking in on that gofundme; diminishing returns (Mar 13)
And two more after that March 20 and March 27
In the 1st, it was clear that people had mostly lost interest. Little was being donated. The next two weeks were pumped up by tRump’s not meeting the bond and then its being “met” but turning out to be unreliable.
Then the bond was met, and there’s no reason to donate now. But it showed how little interest the world has in supporting this guy.
VI. Truth social traffic
Now that the DJT stock is actually publicly listed, they have to file actual, audited information. Here’s some information: Kevin Breuninger CNBC News
Nearly two-and-a-half years after its launch, Truth Social is struggling to hang onto its small U.S. user base, according to new data on the microblogging platform launched by former President Donald Trump’s media company.
So far in May, U.S. daily visits to Truth Social have dropped more than 21% from April, and more than 35% compared to March, according to digital intelligence platform Similarweb.
The site’s average number of monthly visits over the past year — just over 4 million from May 2023 to April 2024 — plummeted more than 39% from the prior 12-month period, from May 2022 to April 2023, Similarweb reported.
The platform is currently getting 76,000 visits per day. And you know some are from people who need to follow tRump because they’re journalists or political hacks — it’s part of their jobs.
VII. Money raised
Now, here, I don’t know what to say. There has been talk of tRump raising more than a hundred million since getting convicted. And it’s possible. I’m sure it has been a huge motivator.
But tRump still wants to keep it all for himself: trump warns Republicans not to ‘siphon money’ from him by fundraising off convictions.
We have seen, many times, that tRump lies, especially about numbers. He also steals and he grifts.
The number is, admittedly, intimidating. It is meant to be intimidating.
But is it real? We may never know. At least I am not the only who is showing skepticism of the claim. At the end of the last quarter, Biden and the Ds had a substantial advantage.
I think the fact that he is warning others in the GOP means that there may be much less than reported.
Or he could just be overwhelmingly greedy.
Or both!
VIII. Not so much support in Congress.
Yes, they kiss the ring when they must, but Mike Johnson and Kevin McCarthy before him still worked with the Ds when Biden called them on the carpet.
Also, some things that tRump surely wants are not happening. Here’s an example:
Not exactly a lot of enthusiasm, and it would never pass the Senate.
***Now, I’m not saying there’s no support for tRump. There’s plenty.
The GOP, terrified they could lose their jobs — and possibly some blackmail — are mostly coming to support him. Many CEOs are also supporting him, because they want more tax cuts (even though the stock market has been soaring under President Biden) — and also because some of them are hedging their bets.
I also think there’s a core of supporters who may intensify their efforts now. People who were not going to bother to vote may do that now.
And there’s the dark money, especially those in Russia / China / Iran, who want the US to fail.
We still have work to do.
But we can do this!
Report any other weaknesses you have detected, and say what you’re doing to make us win in November.
🐦 I do a lot of other writing. A recentoffering: the Crow Nickels (chronicles), a trilogy about crows who want to savebirdkind from extinction: Hunters of the Feather, Scavengersof Mind and Familiars of theFlock (They’re really good! They’re really cheap! Buy and reviewor rate positively! And Hunters is also available on Audible!)Other stories, based on Jane Austen novels — such as TheMeryton Murders — and others based on history and Greek mythology,such as Jocasta:The Mother-Wife of Oedipus, can befound here. All titles are available through Kindle Unlimited, butI only get paid if you turn the pages.
💙 What You Can Do to Rescue Democracy 💙
It turns out that participation in democracy is not just anevery-four-years event but requires active participation, like, whenever youcan find time.
Current projects:
Look in the comments for Progressive Muse’s report on Postcards toVoters
And some other ideas:
You can relax and recharge.
You can join protests and freeway blog.
You can help register new voters.
You can smile.
You can say something nice to friend or a stranger.
You can get out the vote for special elections.
You can reach out to upset Republicans. We need to win some back.
You can share your ideas below.
🌻
💙“Ourhistory has been a constant struggle between the American ideal that we all are created equal and the harsh ugly reality that racism, nativism, fear, demonization have long torn us apart. The battle is perennial, and victory is never assured.” 💙
President Joseph R. Biden
🌹 🌹 🌹
TRUTH MATTERS. LOVE MATTERS.