The U.S. has billed the Ukrainian war as largely a conflict of democracies against dictatorships. As the sides are aligned now, that is certainly descriptive. It is not necessarily true that that explains the motives of the main actors.
China and the U.S. are adversaries. Largely they are competitors, but some of China’s goals are opposed by the U.S. China has been less powerful than the U.S., but is working to close the gap. That is the nature of world politics.
China and Russia are enemies. Period. They have two shared borders. They have fought two wars over these in the past century. Since both are determined to expand their empires, they have a natural competition. Only the existence of Mongolia, with its distinct culture and desire for its own independence, limits, for now, the potential for conflict between China and Russia.
Yet, China is supporting Russia’s expansion efforts in the Ukraine. Why? It is hard to accept that this is due to an alignment of governing philosophies. A simpler explanation is that this policy serves both China’s short and long term self interest.
China needs Russian oil to expand its economy now. Having the U.S. and Russia spending money on the war in the Ukraine weakens both their positions relative to China. Now, China is supporting the Russian economy by purchasing oil, but not due to philosophical alignment. This is a simple short-term economic exchange. Longer-term though, this offers China a tremendous advantage versus Russia.
The recent Kos article shows the volume of Chinese purchases or Russian oil. China does, indeed, need more fossil fuel, but not for much longer. China is projecting to create as much a 200 GWe of nuclear energy by 2030, and 500 GWe of nuclear energy by 2050. It has further plans to reach 1000 GWe of nuclear energy as soon as practicable thereafter. China, will then have by far the largest nuclear energy capacity in the world.
At that point, China’s need for Russian oil will be all but non-existent. Putin’s gamble in the Ukraine has already failed. He now needs some success to survive politically. It is now Putin’s short-term interest that is driving Russian economic policy. It certainly is no longer in Russia’s self-interest.
China can play, and is playing, the long game. Whether Putin survives the Ukrainian invasion or not, Russia’s power relative to China’s will be weakened. Already, its economy is in shambles. Already, it has lost much of its military equipment and leadership. Whoever succeeds Putin in Russia will have a much weaker country.
Already, Russia is perceived by the EU leadership as, “A gas station with nuclear weapons”. I prefer a beehive analogy. Much like a beehive, you do not want to mess with it directly, but you can do pretty much whatever you want if you use some discretion.
After all, bees can sting, but in doing so they die. Bees do this instinctively. Rational actors may take pause at their own death as a result of unleashing their most powerful weapon.
China will have used Russian oil to build its economy and further develop its weapon systems. All the while they will be reducing their need for Russian resources. Whatever China’s next expansionist play is to be, they will have already neutralized the threat on their northern border.
Likely, they will have no particular need to invade Russia. Wealth now, is less in fuel resources than in skilled workers. This makes the trade centers to China’s south more inviting as expansion targets. These areas have, literally, billions of potential customers and hundreds of millions of skilled workers.
Uranium and thorium will be available globally to pretty much handle the world’s energy resources by the mid 2030’s. Thorium, especially is widely distributed globally. This further weakens Russian trade policy. Countries will not have to buy Russian nuclear or fossil fuels as they will have their own energy resources.
What Russia might have of value in the near future though is a short over-the-pole trade route to the West. As the world’s oceans warm, that route might be open three or more months every year. With satellite guidance, a safe route through the Artic might be possible for even longer. That trade route might have a similar economic impact as did the Silk Road and subsequent building of the Suez and Panama canals. World power follows control of trade routes.
The opening of a North Pole oceanic trade route will undoubtedly change world power dynamics... likely more than even any short term economic advantage any country currently has. But, the use of clean nuclear energy now, will surely put any country in a more favorable position to capitalize on this possibility as it unfolds.
China, in the meantime though, will have no credible northern adversary. Not a bad result for following a policy that gets them the oil they need to build their economy, while at the same time buying the time they need to build their military and political power.