Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on July 11 and the night of July 11 to 12.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched five Kh-101 cruise missiles from Saratov Oblast on the evening of July 11 and 19 Shahed-136/131 drones and other unidentified types of drones from Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai and Kursk Oblast on the night of July 11 to 12.[67] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces' main target was Starokostyantyniv, Khmelnytskyi Oblast (the location of a known Ukrainian airfield that Russian forces have repeatedly targeted). The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces shot down all of the Kh-101 missiles over Khmelnytskyi, Sumy, and Cherkasy oblasts and shot down 11 Shahed and other drones over Mykolaiv, Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Kherson, and Sumy oblasts, while the other eight drones were "locationally lost." The Ukrainian General Staff suggested that these eight "lost" drones were Russian "strike imitators" that aimed to overload Ukrainian air defenses. Acting Head of the Myrnohrad Military Administration Yuryi Tretyak stated that Russian forces launched five D-30SN glide bombs with universal joint glide munitions (UMPB) at Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast on July 11 and struck private and commercial buildings.[68]
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Russian Defense Minister ANDREI BELOUSOV called his American counterpart Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN today to discuss “preventing security threats and reducing the risk of possible escalation,” according to a readout of the call from the Russian Defense Ministry.
Western and US officials reportedly assess that Ukrainian forces will continue to be on the defensive for the next six months and will not be able to conduct a large-scale counteroffensive operation until 2025. Ukrainian forces are already attempting to contest the tactical initiative in limited counterattacks in select sectors of the front, however, and Ukrainian forces may be able to conduct limited counteroffensive operations even while largely on the defensive depending on the arrival of Western aid. The New York Times (NYT) reported on July 11 that a senior NATO official stated that Ukraine would have to wait for more Western security assistance and deploy more of its forces to the frontline before conducting counteroffensive operations and that Ukraine would likely not be able to conduct these operations until 2025.[1] A senior US defense official stated that Ukrainian forces would remain on the defensive for the next six months (until January 2025) and that Russian forces will be unlikely to gain significant ground during this time.[2] ISW continues to assess that Russian forces currently remain unlikely to achieve operationally significant gains in Ukraine, and Russian President Vladimir Putin's articulated theory of victory aims for Russian forces to make consistent gradual creeping advances instead of pursuing rapid operationally significant maneuver.[3]
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- Western and US officials reportedly assess that Ukrainian forces will continue to be on the defensive for the next six months and will not be able to conduct a large-scale counteroffensive operation until 2025. Ukrainian forces are already attempting to contest the tactical initiative in limited counterattacks in select sectors of the front, however, and Ukrainian forces may be able to conduct limited counteroffensive operations even while largely on the defensive depending on the arrival of Western aid.
- The Kremlin continues to signal its unwillingness to participate in peace negotiations that do not result in complete Ukrainian and Western capitulation to the Kremlin's demands amid ongoing Ukrainian efforts to form an international consensus for future negotiations.
- Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov used a phone call with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on July 12, his second in three weeks, to reiterate standard Russian threats intended to coerce the US out of supporting Ukraine as part of an ongoing reflexive control campaign targeting Western decision-makers.
- The United Kingdom (UK) government has reportedly not permitted Ukraine to use UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles to strike military targets within Russia, despite previous Western reporting and UK official statements to the contrary.
- The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced on July 11 a military aid package for Ukraine worth $225 million.
- Indian state-run oil refineries are reportedly negotiating an oil import deal with Russia, likely as a result of the recent meetings between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin and improving Russo-Indian energy relations in recent months.
- The Kremlin continues to intensify efforts to encourage self-censorship among information space voices and consolidate physical control over internet infrastructure.
- Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
- Russian infantry units are reportedly assaulting Ukrainian trench positions in single-file columns due to pervasive Ukrainian minefields and poor assault training.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Zaporizhia Oblast occupation administration head Yevgeny Balitsky on July 12 and discussed social and infrastructure projects in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.
Fighting continued north and northeast of Kharkiv City on July 12, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. ... The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued offensive operations near Hlyboke, Vovchansk, and Starytsya (northeast of Kharkiv City) on July 12.[39] The spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade operating in northern Kharkiv Oblast stated that volunteers from African countries and the former Soviet Union are fighting in Russian assault groups in the area.[40]
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