Let's forget about polls, please. They have meant nothing since 2016. Two good reasons to take them with a grain of salt are (1) many of them are biased in favor of Republicans; and (2) they quite possibly skew the questions to purposefully confuse respondents so that they will get the responses that they want. (As an aside, I recall one person from MLive, a Michigan statewide news source, commenting on a story on the site about 12-15 years ago saying that they were contacted by a national polling service, and that the person conducting the poll said that they wanted to speak only to a Republican voter.) And, as the cherry on top of the sundae, people can also lie to polls. The one and only poll that matters is Election Day.
Now, with that said, let's use a system that seems much more reliable. One particular prediction method that I like is Allan Lichtman's "Keys to the White House." It is a list of 13 true/false items to check off as you go, and if the incumbent president has met a minimum of eight of those, then winning re-election is in their favor. And, it may be safe to assume that the more keys the president has, the greater their chances of winning. Since 1984, this system has correctly predicted nine popular vote outcomes out of the ten most recent presidential elections, which basically gives it a 90 percent accuracy rating. The paraphrased keys are as follows:
THE 13 KEYS TO WINNING
- Biden's party won the House of Representatives during the year of the presidential election, and the same party held on to the House after the next midterm election two years later.
- There is no real contest in the Democratic presidential primary.
- Biden is currently the sitting president.
- No third-party race is seriously jeopardizing Biden's chances.
- The country is not experiencing an economic recession.
- GDP per capita growth in the current term is greater than the average GDP growth of the last two presidential terms.
- Biden has successfully enacted major policy changes in his first term.
- There is no social unrest.
- Biden and his administration are not at the center of a major scandal.
- Biden has not experienced any major foreign and/or military failure.
- Biden has achieved a major foreign and/or military success.
- Biden is one who shows charismatic charm and is a national hero.
- Biden's challenger is not charismatic and is not a national hero.
Here is a quick rundown of how I would rate these 13 for President Biden:
- FALSE. Democrats won the House in 2020 but very narrowly lost it in 2022.
- TRUE. Despite calls for Biden to step down from a very loud and vocal minority in his party, the vast majority of his supporters in Congress are still backing him.
- TRUE. (Duh!)
- TRUE. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s third-party run is not a significant one impacting Biden's race. It is nowhere near the Clinton-Perot or the Clinton-Johnson-Stein conflicts from 1992 and 2016, respectively.
- TRUE. The stock market and the number of jobs have consistently grown during Biden’s term.
- TRUE. After doing the math and using these charts and tables on Macrotrends' website, it appears that from 2013 to 2020 during Obama's second term and Trump's term, GDP per capita growth averaged 2.61 percent. From 2021 to 2022 during Biden's first term, it averaged around 9.62 percent. So far, this one seems to be holding water.
- TRUE. President Biden immediately responded with swift action to the COVID-19 health crisis, the first major test of his first term (and a successful one, with nearly 80 percent of American adults receiving two or more doses of vaccine). Other major accomplishments include aggressive new climate change legislation and common sense gun laws, as well as significant debt relief for millions of college students. In addition, inflation is coming down, crime is significantly lower than it was during Trump's term, and NATO is stronger with Finland and Sweden being new members.
- TRUE. Despite the number of Israeli/Palestinian student demonstrations that recently broke out across the country as a result of the Israel-Hamas conflict, these are protests over an international crisis, not a domestic one. And, need I add that they are certainly not as severe, violent, destructive, and/or widespread as the “Unite the Right” rally in Charlottesville, the George Floyd protests, or January 6th, all of which occurred under Trump's watch.
- TRUE. President Biden is not facing four indictments or 34 felony counts, nor is anyone in his administration.
- PROBABLY TRUE. While I have expressed a considerable amount of disapproval over Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict in the past several months, I do not think I am quite ready to classify it as a failure yet (assuming it does fall under this key). Reportedly, ceasefire talks are in the making, but we will have to wait and see how well those go.
- TRUE. Biden has been praised nationwide and worldwide for helping the Ukrainian people in times of war and providing Ukraine with the weapons and artillery they need to fend off Russian aggression. This can be counted as a success in my book.
- TRUE. Unlike his sociopathic and mentally ill opponent, Biden is a good, sane man with a calm demeanor and a keen sense of humor. (See Key #7 above for an explanation as to why he could be classified as a national hero.)
- TRUE. (No arguing here!)
Biden appears to be in pretty safe territory with 11 (perhaps even 12) of the 13 keys checked true. Using Lichtman’s model, my prediction is that Biden...
(Accuracy) x (Number of Keys/13) = Chances of Winning
11 Keys = 0.90 x (11/13) = 0.7615 = About 76%
12 Keys = 0.90 x (12/13) = 0.8308 = About 83%
...has right around an 80 percent chance of winning re-election. Pretty high!
Now, this is just pure speculation, but while it must be noted that Lichtman's system only predicts the popular vote outcome of the presidential election, it seems logical to argue that the greater the number of keys, the higher the chances of taking the Electoral College. So, if Biden were to have the absolute minimum of just eight of the 13 keys to his advantage, it makes sense to say that while he could barely take the popular vote by a few million, he would be considerably more likely to lose the Electoral College, and thus, the presidency. It is my firm belief that Biden has a very good chance of carrying the Electoral College as well, due to the fact that he has 11 (possibly 12) of the 13 above keys sealed, which is quite a satisfactory score.
Not only that, he has several additional bonus points working in his favor. Namely:
- The promise to restore Roe v. Wade and codify women's reproductive rights into federal law.
- His opponent being a 34-time convicted felon.
- His opponent inciting a violent mob at our nation's Capitol.
- Our illegitimate and now-politicized Supreme Court declaring his opponent a king above the law.
- The American public becoming increasingly aware of Project 2025.
- The growing rejection of fascism and authoritarianism around the world, namely in France, the United Kingdom, India, and even Iran. (Hopefully Germany will join the list also.)
These too are bound to boost Biden's chances. And, assuming that the popular vote trend holds from 2016 onward, Biden could take the popular vote by 11-12 million or more this time around. So far, everything sounds pretty reassuring, right?
This is beside the point of the article, but the items outlined above could explain why the pro-Trump mainstream media is so insistent on badgering Biden (and amplifying their propaganda with a bullhorn) at every chance they can get. They probably know that they have no solid basis for attacking him considering his successful track record and everything working against their Orange Menace, so this could account for why they are resorting to all this diatribe against him regarding his age, health, and debate performance, and how he should drop out. While at the same time giving their convicted felon and insurrectionist a free pass on everything. And this brings me to another potential bonus point to pile on to the half-dozen points outlined above.
Another possible point that could give Biden the edge: The media's constant bashing of him post-debate, now going on for more than two weeks. This is just a theory, but perhaps all across the country, regardless of political party affiliation, people are getting sick and tired of hearing and reading about it all the time, and the more the media makes a big deal out of it and makes it the clickbait headline of the day, the more inclined people are going to be to vote for him.
If you ask me, Joe is on track to winning again in November. The Biden Train is not derailing. (And I'm ridin' with Biden.)
DISCLAIMER: I am not a statistician or a political analyst. The numbers and theories presented above are only my honest and informed opinion.