Vacillating
Like probably all of us progressives, after watching a few minutes of the debate, I thought: This cannot be, impossible, he’s got to go, but then the post-debate polls showed very minor changes. Somehow it didn’t affect the people that matter, the voters.
Moreover if the polls show a tight race, then we’re doing fine, since they’ve consistently underrated Biden and Dems in general. For instance, in the NYT poll of a couple months back which showed trump ahead in swing states, a close look at the cross-tabs showed 37% of respondents were from rural districts, when in fact, only 17% of Americans live in those places. If you overrepresent the trumpiest districts, of course he’ll be ahead.
A more recent major poll which showed trump ahead had a majority of women supporting him. Really? The last time a GOP candidate won women voters was in the 1990s, so now they’ll vote for him in spite of his pussy-grabbing misogyny, ending Roe and heading up a ticket that talks about restricting contraception and no-fault divorce?
Another example was the Supreme Court race in Wisconsin a few months back pitting a typical Repub against a Dem who made support for abortion rights an important issue. Polls showed the race a toss up, but the progressive won by 11pts.
And while most national polls have been even or favored the GOP, every single special election since 2022 has shown Dems outperforming polls and voting history. Finally on this issue look at the recent special in Ohio district 6, a couple weeks back. In the previous election the Repub won 67-33, a 34pt spread. District 6 is in the foothills of the Appalachian mountains. In educational achievement it’s in the lowest 5% in the nation. The race this time was between a state senator who spent $700,000 dollars and a waiter who quit his job to run and spent a paltry $20,000. The spread this time was only 10 pts. Amazing. That’s going to be replicated all over the country and Dems are going to win big.
So still, I’ve been going back and forth, but after reading many thoughtful articles on the matter, it turns out replacing Biden with anybody but Harris is fraught with roadblocks. To start with, she’s the only one with access to the large amount of money that has been raised for the race. Just getting on state ballots would be a challenge, since any attempt to replace Biden with other than Harris would be fought in the courts by Repubs.
Polls show hardly any significant difference in matchups with trump. And if it’s Harris, why bother? She’s already there as soon as there’s any indication that Biden is not up to the job. I doubt very much if he’d make four years. Even if he’s still mentally acute, he won’t have the stamina and she’s waiting in the wings.
But still, I’ve been vacillating. Should he go or should he stay? While the pundit class, including many leftists, and the corporate media are determined to make him look bad, he’s still running the country. And while many paint him as mentally unfit, he’s totally there when it comes to doing the job. Compared to trump who’s speeches are often word salad, who says things like the revolutionary forces took over the airports in 1776?
Finally Project 2025 combined with trump’s continuing deterioration is going to be a noose around the GOP. Independents will flock to Biden en masse when the details on 2025’s awful implications fully come to light. Even if another Dem might do a bit better, I believe he’ll still win easily. Polls are turning in his direction. Nonetheless, anything can happen in the next couple weeks. Biden is adamant about staying, but the clamor around him leaving is getting louder and louder… we’ll see.