Recently, hyperbole and kneejerk reactions have been commonplace. We are anxious about the election and there is a whole lot of DOOM and concern to go around. When you are close to big events it is also hard to tell where things will go and what they do or do not mean.
The attempted assassination of Donald Trump is the latest in these “we’re doomed I tell ya” events. I doubt that it will be the last.
Keeping perspective is important, especially on where this is likely to lead based on what we actually know. Such can help us evaluate if the sky is falling or not.
I share all of this understanding that the election outcome is not a given. For those feeling that extra anxiety right now let’s review high probability events to make you feel better.
- Will Trump heal up fast? Yes, no long hospital stays or the like. It was thankfully a graze. That aspect will not be drug out in the media as Reagan’s shooting was.
- Does the shooter profile feed into predictable Republican attacks (i.e., a leftwing or socialist or (insert racial/demographic target) wacko?) No, he looks more rightwing than anything, but from what we already know the shooter will not be a clear cut caricature to go after. Young, male, asocial are what has come out so far. Also, he used an AR-style rifle which further muddies the water as the high-profile weapon that Republicans keep on protecting to do horrible things like yesterday.
- Will Republicans gin up outrage? Of course, that is what they do. If it wasn’t on this, it would be something else.
- Will the media be awful? Of course, that is what they do. They were being awful last week. They will be awful next week. The consolidated media remains an enemy of progressive change.
- Will people remember in November? I doubt it. Vote like your life depends on it.
- Will people remember by October? I doubt it. Halloween. World Series and baseball playoffs.
- Will people remember by September? I doubt it. Back to school. Football starts.
- Will people remember by August? A little before the Summer Olympics and DNC.
- Will Trump be able to milk this at the RNC? Some, but I’m unsure how much he can really do that given it swims against his style.
- Will Trump stop saying awful things, including encouraging violence and/or retribution? I doubt it, in fact, I can see him upping the awful against the “Deep State” that he would say tried to kill him.
- Does this change Trump’s hard ceiling of support, which has been static to declining the past 8 years? I don’t see how. “Oh, my awful rightwing relatives are now voting for Trump” — Spoiler — they already were going to vote for Trump.
- Has Biden’s response been okay? Sure, he has said what has needed to be said, especially rejecting violence. Democrats already play on the side of nonviolence.
- Are there potential benefits for Biden? This has finally knocked the negative and fretting news cycle about Biden for a loop.
- Will Trump get a bump? Historically, he should as the RNC is about to start, which will dominate the news for the next week. I presume Trump will enjoy some sort of polling bump based on events in the next week.
- Will Biden get a bump? He should after the DNC where a message of nonviolence and democracy should be the theme (if it wasn’t already). The assassination attempt plays into Biden’s theme of normalcy and not encouraging violent or other undemocratic actions.
- What about turnout? Republicans are going to show up and vote. Based on 2016 and 2020 that was always going to happen despite what some here may have hoped for.
- What does that mean for us? Very little. We need to turnout and vote for Biden. That has not changed and will not change between now and Election Day. If we have strong turnout, we will win in November.
- You sound so certain, there must be wildcards in this? I see three big ones.
- Trump’s Behavior. Trump could try and pivot to a more peaceful, normal platform. That would take a few steps beyond recent denial of Project 2025. His tone has been somewhat sedate over the past day. He has handlers around him that are keeping him from stepping on a not-negative news cycle. Of course, that could turn off some of his most frothing fans who would only vote for him. And do we really expect Trump not to be Trump?
- What Democrats do. A break in ads is fine and will last days, giving Trump an opportunity to be Trump, after which they restart. I would also run some that candidates espousing violence are BAD. :) This is also an opportunity to highlight GOP hypocrisy on guns and the violence that they do. Senate Democrats could discuss new gun legislation, which I will snarkily name “The Donald Trump Ear Safety Act”. This would put previous bans on AR-15’s back in place, citing the attempt on Trump’s life. The messaging is easy — “I get that dead school kids don’t matter to you, but perhaps Donald Trump’s ear might?” The GOP would of course oppose any such, which is still a win for us.
- Increased potential for violence if we are fortunate enough to get a Biden victory. Consider where Trump’s base is right now and where it could be in November mentally — Nobody wanted my guy Trump to run. The Deep State, the judges are after him. They even tried to kill him! And now Biden wins another rigged election? Am I going to take this? Am I? I am concerned as it is about political violence leading up to, on and after Election Day. I can see this adding a LOT of fuel for Trump’s unbalanced supporters if Trump does not win. Let us hope our security and other apparatuses are ready, starting with recognizing that bullets can fly more than 400 feet.